The ups and downs of the recent market action continued yesterday as we saw a strong open fail, but that was followed by steady buying that pushed the indices toward solid gains for the day. All that chopping around recently was leading to last night's earnings report from Apple and this morning's jobs report. Apple was up after hours but the jobs report may be the bigger impact as interest rates are on the line.
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The rally in stocks yesterday was directly influenced by a decline in yields and the dollar as the 10-year Treasury Yield fell to the bottom of its recent range. It still looks like a bull flag but where is the breakout? Perhaps the red open gap needs to get filled first?
The dollar also fell sharply, landing right on the 20-day EMA which has provided support this year. Again, this is another bullish flag suggesting the jobs report might send this higher, but we know how the market loves to get us leaning the wrong way.
Apple was up over 6%, last I checked, in after hours trading on Thursday after posting earnings, and being one of the biggest stocks in the world, it could set a positive tone for the market, although the jobs report is coming up before the opening bell so we'll see.
Apple has been in the dog house for a while so expectations were not that high, which is a big change from recent years. It is in a downtrend but if can hold onto those after hours gains today, it could break that trend. The highlight was the announcement of a huge stock buy back for the company. That sounds good, but was it just an act of desperation and maybe a show of confidence for their beleaguered investors? You can see how much it had been underperforming the S&P 500 this year.
A big gain in Apple would obviously put the wind at the backs of the big three indices, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, if the jobs report isn't a total disappoint this morning.
The S&P 500 retraced most of Wednesday's negative reversal candlestick, and Tuesday's breakdown candlestick. As of yesterday the 15 and 50 day moving averages held as resistance, however Apple has the S&P futures up about 20-points after the bell, which would put this chart up near 5084. Still within the wide range of the recent candlesticks, but the jobs report hasn't been factored in yet.
The Dow Transportation Index had a big day yesterday gaining 2.5%, perhaps breaking the bearish looking flag, but it is still below the key 50 and 200-day moving averages, so it's a good start, but there's more work to do.
I'm ready for the weekend to shake out the cobwebs from the recent back and forth action. It's been a wild, emotional week for both the bulls and the bears and we haven't even seen the jobs report yet. They love to throw big numbers at us in these reports while revising the prior reports down so it's not always apparent at first glance what's happening. Buckle up!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) retraced Wednesday's negative reversal candlestick yesterday and tagged the 20 and 50-day EMAs at yesterday's highs. Apple's earnings could jump that resistance IF the jobs report doesn't spoil the party. I still see a bear flag and they have a strong tendency to break down, but there's no certainties in the market.
DWCPF (S-fund) led with a big gain with yields sliding again, but yields are at the bottom of a range and the jobs report could make or break this on again - off again leadership from the small caps. Again, it's a bear flag so be careful.
The EFA (I-fund) was helped by a drop in the dollar yesterday. A bear flag on the EFA chart and a bull flag on the UUP dollar ETF, and it looks a little troubling, but again the jobs report ... yada, yada, yada.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a big rally yesterday but it's in somewhat of a bear flag and it looks like the 50-day EMA and the top of the blue channel near 71.25 are the next resistance areas the chart will be dealing with.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The rally in stocks yesterday was directly influenced by a decline in yields and the dollar as the 10-year Treasury Yield fell to the bottom of its recent range. It still looks like a bull flag but where is the breakout? Perhaps the red open gap needs to get filled first?
The dollar also fell sharply, landing right on the 20-day EMA which has provided support this year. Again, this is another bullish flag suggesting the jobs report might send this higher, but we know how the market loves to get us leaning the wrong way.
Apple was up over 6%, last I checked, in after hours trading on Thursday after posting earnings, and being one of the biggest stocks in the world, it could set a positive tone for the market, although the jobs report is coming up before the opening bell so we'll see.
Apple has been in the dog house for a while so expectations were not that high, which is a big change from recent years. It is in a downtrend but if can hold onto those after hours gains today, it could break that trend. The highlight was the announcement of a huge stock buy back for the company. That sounds good, but was it just an act of desperation and maybe a show of confidence for their beleaguered investors? You can see how much it had been underperforming the S&P 500 this year.
A big gain in Apple would obviously put the wind at the backs of the big three indices, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, if the jobs report isn't a total disappoint this morning.
The S&P 500 retraced most of Wednesday's negative reversal candlestick, and Tuesday's breakdown candlestick. As of yesterday the 15 and 50 day moving averages held as resistance, however Apple has the S&P futures up about 20-points after the bell, which would put this chart up near 5084. Still within the wide range of the recent candlesticks, but the jobs report hasn't been factored in yet.
The Dow Transportation Index had a big day yesterday gaining 2.5%, perhaps breaking the bearish looking flag, but it is still below the key 50 and 200-day moving averages, so it's a good start, but there's more work to do.
I'm ready for the weekend to shake out the cobwebs from the recent back and forth action. It's been a wild, emotional week for both the bulls and the bears and we haven't even seen the jobs report yet. They love to throw big numbers at us in these reports while revising the prior reports down so it's not always apparent at first glance what's happening. Buckle up!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) retraced Wednesday's negative reversal candlestick yesterday and tagged the 20 and 50-day EMAs at yesterday's highs. Apple's earnings could jump that resistance IF the jobs report doesn't spoil the party. I still see a bear flag and they have a strong tendency to break down, but there's no certainties in the market.
DWCPF (S-fund) led with a big gain with yields sliding again, but yields are at the bottom of a range and the jobs report could make or break this on again - off again leadership from the small caps. Again, it's a bear flag so be careful.
The EFA (I-fund) was helped by a drop in the dollar yesterday. A bear flag on the EFA chart and a bull flag on the UUP dollar ETF, and it looks a little troubling, but again the jobs report ... yada, yada, yada.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a big rally yesterday but it's in somewhat of a bear flag and it looks like the 50-day EMA and the top of the blue channel near 71.25 are the next resistance areas the chart will be dealing with.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
