Stocks opened higher on Thursday but we saw big tech weigh on the large cap indices yesterday, pushing the big three indices into negative territory. Yields were down again on some weaker than expected economic data, and that means gains for the F-fund, but it also helped the small caps lead the TSP funds with a decent gain despite the decline in those large caps.
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
Admin note: Final Days! We are offering a discount on our annual subscriptions to new and current subscribers until Saturday. You can sign up to a new service or add a year or two (in some cases) to your current subscription for 20% off the regular price (or 50% in some cases.) Use this link for more information: TSP Talk - Annual Subscription Sale
I want to thank all of you who subscribed. Thanks to new members who decided to give us a try, and of course the loyal renewals. Some of you have been with us for 5, 10, even 15 years, and it is so humbling to know that you trust us enough to continue to sign up each year. We made some good money last year and we're looking forward to trying to tack onto those gains this year. Thanks so much! We really appreciate you!
Yesterday there was a lot of red in the headlines with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all down on the day, but it was the large cap tech stocks dragging those indices down because otherwise, stocks held up rather well. Take out those tech stocks and we saw a fairly bullish day with 17 stocks up for every 10 that were down on the NYSE and trading volume was quite positive on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Also, we have seen a shift in the New Highs on the NYSE as 3 stocks made new 52-week highs yesterday for each new low. That was reversed last week.
The Nasdaq new highs / new lows was upside down again.
Despite the loss in the S&P 500, the Equal Weighted S&P 500 (same 500 stocks compared equally) was up 0.79% yesterday, so it really was big tech that caused all the red in those headline index numbers.
The weekly jobless claims rose to 217,000 from 203,000 last week. Economists expected 210,000. December retail sales were up 0.4%, which was just off the 0.05% forecast, and well off the prior month's 0.8% gain.
Both were slightly weaker than expecting, helping yields come down for a third straight day. The 10-year Treasury Yield fell below the December peak and 4.5% is the next potential support level. The longer-term trend is still up so whether this yield has peaked or not remains to be seen. A decline below 4.5% might indicate a shift, but for now this is just a pullback in a rising yield environment.
Next week the seasonality calendar gets a little red. What does this mean? Not a whole lot. We'll just say that the stock market will have a bit of a headwind during the holiday shortened week. Perhaps it is the holiday reversals that are at play.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As I mentioned yesterday, the final week in January is going to be a blockbuster with an FOMC meeting, the PCE inflation report, and earnings from the Magnificent 7 stocks Google, Microsoft, Tesla, META, Apple, and Amazon.
The Dow Transportation Index jumped right back up yesterday after the weak close on Wednesday. That was a successful test of the 50-day EMA as support. The bear flag appears to be broken on this chart.
The decline in yields opened the door to interest rate sensitive small caps (Russell 2000) to outperform again, but you can see this chart is still in the bear flag, and it is struggling just below the 50-day EMA.
We have Federal holiday on January 20, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the stock market and the TSP will be closed on Monday. It's also inauguration day. Inauguration day 2021 saw the S&P 500 up 1.4%, but again the stock market won't be open this year.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) may have needed a day of rest after the major reversal off the recent lows, and some overhead resistance starting to hold. It looks like a big bull flag and bull flags tend to break to the upside, but it doesn't necessarily have to do on this pass. The open gaps are there for the bears to try to test, but investors who have been selling over the last six weeks, may now be impatient dip buyers. The index closed above the purple 50-day EMA (E = exponential), while it is having a hard time getting back above that green 50-day simple moving average.
DWCPF (S-fund) had another solid gain on Thursday as the lower yields give investors a reason to get more aggressive in the small caps. The chart still sports that bear flag, which historically is a bearish formation, but more recently, not so much. It closed above its 50-day EMA for a second day, but there are still the open gaps below to deal with.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 0.29 yesterday and the I-fund was given a gain of 0.49%. It's trying but resistance is everywhere on this chart.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied again and this time it was able to close above its 200-day EMA. There's more resistance above, but there is a little upside wiggle room before it gets there.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
Admin note: Final Days! We are offering a discount on our annual subscriptions to new and current subscribers until Saturday. You can sign up to a new service or add a year or two (in some cases) to your current subscription for 20% off the regular price (or 50% in some cases.) Use this link for more information: TSP Talk - Annual Subscription Sale
I want to thank all of you who subscribed. Thanks to new members who decided to give us a try, and of course the loyal renewals. Some of you have been with us for 5, 10, even 15 years, and it is so humbling to know that you trust us enough to continue to sign up each year. We made some good money last year and we're looking forward to trying to tack onto those gains this year. Thanks so much! We really appreciate you!
Yesterday there was a lot of red in the headlines with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all down on the day, but it was the large cap tech stocks dragging those indices down because otherwise, stocks held up rather well. Take out those tech stocks and we saw a fairly bullish day with 17 stocks up for every 10 that were down on the NYSE and trading volume was quite positive on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Also, we have seen a shift in the New Highs on the NYSE as 3 stocks made new 52-week highs yesterday for each new low. That was reversed last week.
The Nasdaq new highs / new lows was upside down again.
Despite the loss in the S&P 500, the Equal Weighted S&P 500 (same 500 stocks compared equally) was up 0.79% yesterday, so it really was big tech that caused all the red in those headline index numbers.
The weekly jobless claims rose to 217,000 from 203,000 last week. Economists expected 210,000. December retail sales were up 0.4%, which was just off the 0.05% forecast, and well off the prior month's 0.8% gain.
Both were slightly weaker than expecting, helping yields come down for a third straight day. The 10-year Treasury Yield fell below the December peak and 4.5% is the next potential support level. The longer-term trend is still up so whether this yield has peaked or not remains to be seen. A decline below 4.5% might indicate a shift, but for now this is just a pullback in a rising yield environment.
Next week the seasonality calendar gets a little red. What does this mean? Not a whole lot. We'll just say that the stock market will have a bit of a headwind during the holiday shortened week. Perhaps it is the holiday reversals that are at play.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As I mentioned yesterday, the final week in January is going to be a blockbuster with an FOMC meeting, the PCE inflation report, and earnings from the Magnificent 7 stocks Google, Microsoft, Tesla, META, Apple, and Amazon.
The Dow Transportation Index jumped right back up yesterday after the weak close on Wednesday. That was a successful test of the 50-day EMA as support. The bear flag appears to be broken on this chart.
The decline in yields opened the door to interest rate sensitive small caps (Russell 2000) to outperform again, but you can see this chart is still in the bear flag, and it is struggling just below the 50-day EMA.
We have Federal holiday on January 20, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the stock market and the TSP will be closed on Monday. It's also inauguration day. Inauguration day 2021 saw the S&P 500 up 1.4%, but again the stock market won't be open this year.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) may have needed a day of rest after the major reversal off the recent lows, and some overhead resistance starting to hold. It looks like a big bull flag and bull flags tend to break to the upside, but it doesn't necessarily have to do on this pass. The open gaps are there for the bears to try to test, but investors who have been selling over the last six weeks, may now be impatient dip buyers. The index closed above the purple 50-day EMA (E = exponential), while it is having a hard time getting back above that green 50-day simple moving average.
DWCPF (S-fund) had another solid gain on Thursday as the lower yields give investors a reason to get more aggressive in the small caps. The chart still sports that bear flag, which historically is a bearish formation, but more recently, not so much. It closed above its 50-day EMA for a second day, but there are still the open gaps below to deal with.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 0.29 yesterday and the I-fund was given a gain of 0.49%. It's trying but resistance is everywhere on this chart.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied again and this time it was able to close above its 200-day EMA. There's more resistance above, but there is a little upside wiggle room before it gets there.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
