The Dow was flat yesterday, and the Russell 2000 small caps were down, but all three of the TSP stocks funds rallied again yesterday, as did bonds and the F-fund. The S-fund was able to tack on a modest gain after Tuesday's giant rally of nearly 5% - and it did so despite the loss in the Russell 2000. Big tech and the Nasdaq rallied and led on the upside although, depending on what price the TSP gives the I-fund, it may have led even the Nasdaq. ACWX, the ETF we're using to track the intraday and daily moves of the I-fund, was up 1.74% yesterday after the disappointing loss on Wednesday.
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The Federal reserve cut interest rates 0.25% as most expected, and they didn't really add much to their prior meeting's policy statement. The stock market barely blinked and took that as as sign to keep on doing what it was doing on post-election day Wednesday, which was rally.
Market breadth was positive with 4 stocks up for every 3 that were down, and because big tech led, trading volume was even stronger with a 2 to 1 ratio in favor of advancers over decliners. There were over 400 new 52-week highs on the Nasdaq, and the NYSE had 275 new highs to just 16 new lows.
Yields fell sharply helping bonds finally rally, and the 10-Year Treasury Yield moved down to 4.34%. It only partially filled Wednesday's open gap, so from a technical standpoint, the decline wasn't very meaningful. If it can close below that blue rising channel for a couple of days, then we may have a change in trend, but right now the stock market isn't even too concerned with 4.3%. It's about right for the current economic environment, as long as it's not moving quickly or sharply in one direction or the other.
The dollar also pulled back from Wednesday's big rally, and that helped the I-fund lead the way yesterday.
I don't talk much about bitcoin in this daily commentary, although we often talk about it in the TSP Talk Plus Report, but it has become a good indicator of investor's tolerance for risk. The recent breakout from a giant bull flag to all time highs is telling us that investors are being very aggressive. Full disclosure, I do invest and trade in bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs.
So this market is one where dips can likely be bought, but it may be tricky if there are a lot of folks who are underinvested. That could make the dips quite shallow, and at that point it could take a negative headline to cause enough volatility to get a decent opportunity.
That said, investors are quite bullish right now and if too many folks lean one way, the market isn't averse to pulling the rug on us.
Monday is Veteran's Day and the TSP will be closed that day. Thank you to all of our Veteran's for all they do to keep the rest of us safe.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) came close to 6000 yesterday before pulling back a bit in late trading. It was a new record close, but we can see there is some resistance near yesterday's high - although it is rising resistance. The PMO indicator is on the brink of moving back above its moving average, and that's a good sign for the intermediate-term, but sometimes that's an indication of being short-term overbought. The open gap below is glaring at us but it could be one of those gap and goes, rather than one that gets filled quickly - at least it felt like one of those.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged a bit yesterday, but it was able to make a modest gain after Wednesday's monster rally of nearly 5%. It's a good looking chart, but short term could be setting up for a little backing and filling to retest the recent breakout area.
According to the TSP.gov website, "The transition of the I Fund benchmark to the MSCI All Country World Investable Market Index ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index (MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index) is complete."
ACWX seems to be the ETF to follow to keep intraday tabs on the I-fund. After lagging badly on Tuesday because of the rally in the dollar, ACWX was up 1.74% yesterday. Let's see how close the TSP's I-fund's price and return is to 1.74% on Thursday evening. You can see that update by about 9:15 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
On Wednesday the ACWX was down 1.24% and the I-fund return was down just 0.84% so I can see there is going to be some fair value adjusting and some guessing going into the price.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) rallied nicely, getting back most of Wednesday's losses as it consolidates in the descending trading channel.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns
The Federal reserve cut interest rates 0.25% as most expected, and they didn't really add much to their prior meeting's policy statement. The stock market barely blinked and took that as as sign to keep on doing what it was doing on post-election day Wednesday, which was rally.
Market breadth was positive with 4 stocks up for every 3 that were down, and because big tech led, trading volume was even stronger with a 2 to 1 ratio in favor of advancers over decliners. There were over 400 new 52-week highs on the Nasdaq, and the NYSE had 275 new highs to just 16 new lows.
Yields fell sharply helping bonds finally rally, and the 10-Year Treasury Yield moved down to 4.34%. It only partially filled Wednesday's open gap, so from a technical standpoint, the decline wasn't very meaningful. If it can close below that blue rising channel for a couple of days, then we may have a change in trend, but right now the stock market isn't even too concerned with 4.3%. It's about right for the current economic environment, as long as it's not moving quickly or sharply in one direction or the other.
The dollar also pulled back from Wednesday's big rally, and that helped the I-fund lead the way yesterday.
I don't talk much about bitcoin in this daily commentary, although we often talk about it in the TSP Talk Plus Report, but it has become a good indicator of investor's tolerance for risk. The recent breakout from a giant bull flag to all time highs is telling us that investors are being very aggressive. Full disclosure, I do invest and trade in bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs.
So this market is one where dips can likely be bought, but it may be tricky if there are a lot of folks who are underinvested. That could make the dips quite shallow, and at that point it could take a negative headline to cause enough volatility to get a decent opportunity.
That said, investors are quite bullish right now and if too many folks lean one way, the market isn't averse to pulling the rug on us.
Monday is Veteran's Day and the TSP will be closed that day. Thank you to all of our Veteran's for all they do to keep the rest of us safe.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) came close to 6000 yesterday before pulling back a bit in late trading. It was a new record close, but we can see there is some resistance near yesterday's high - although it is rising resistance. The PMO indicator is on the brink of moving back above its moving average, and that's a good sign for the intermediate-term, but sometimes that's an indication of being short-term overbought. The open gap below is glaring at us but it could be one of those gap and goes, rather than one that gets filled quickly - at least it felt like one of those.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged a bit yesterday, but it was able to make a modest gain after Wednesday's monster rally of nearly 5%. It's a good looking chart, but short term could be setting up for a little backing and filling to retest the recent breakout area.
According to the TSP.gov website, "The transition of the I Fund benchmark to the MSCI All Country World Investable Market Index ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index (MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index) is complete."
ACWX seems to be the ETF to follow to keep intraday tabs on the I-fund. After lagging badly on Tuesday because of the rally in the dollar, ACWX was up 1.74% yesterday. Let's see how close the TSP's I-fund's price and return is to 1.74% on Thursday evening. You can see that update by about 9:15 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
On Wednesday the ACWX was down 1.24% and the I-fund return was down just 0.84% so I can see there is going to be some fair value adjusting and some guessing going into the price.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) rallied nicely, getting back most of Wednesday's losses as it consolidates in the descending trading channel.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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