Stocks were mixed on Thursday, but only because the Dow was able to avoid a loss, because the broader market took one on the chin and sold off after the recent rally off the lows. The Dow was even, the S&P 500 took a dive in the latter half of the day, while small caps and the Nasdaq opened at their highs and slid lower all day, closing at the lows. Bonds were up slightly, as was the dollar.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) seems to be starting to fill in that right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder pattern that we highlighted yesterday. There's an open gap near 4610 that needs filling, but also several small ones well below that. Today's CPI report should have an impact but we don't know if it will come inline, better, or worse than expected. Next week's Fed meeting may keep investors on guard as well and the CPI is one the Fed watches closely.
The DWCPF Index (S-fund) got slammed after its big three day rally. Not exactly a surprise given the open gap and steep decline, but I was thinking we could see a day or two of consolidation before an all out sell off. The orange moving average is obviously still quite meaningful on this chart. The close above it on Wednesday was the smoke screen.
The EFA (I-fund) was down on the day as the dollar moved higher. The large gap below seems like an obvious target and the 50-day EMA held as resistance. That seems like a bearish set up to me but the market seems to like to get us leaning the wrong way, so who knows?
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up but the chart did not improve as it remains below the key moving averages and trending lower toward the large open gap and the bottom of the channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Nobody seems to know what is happening, and if anything the information we are being fed makes things more confusing. We have economic reports coming in way off of estimates. Many of the recent jobs reports have been off by 100's of thousands of jobs the last several months - some above, some below estimates. That's unheard of, and not very helpful to investors. It heightens volatility and the traders at places like Goldman Sachs know how to take advantage of the overreactions better than we do.
Even yesterday the initial jobless claims report came out about 40,000 below the estimate. That sounds good for the economy since it was stronger than expected, but with the market on inflation and interest rate watch, it wasn't great for the stock market.
But to confuse us even more, the inflationary plays like gold, silver, bond yields, even bitcoin, were all sharply lower?
Today we get the important CPI, and who knows? Big number, small number, near the estimates or off, the media's constant hype of these make it tough to know what to do, and with our limited TSP transactions each month and the early transaction deadline, it can be tough trying to do the right thing. It's all done that way so that you don't touch your money and just leave it be. That's what they'd prefer.
The market will be on full alert after the CPI with the impending FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down on a day that where we got some data that suggested something more inflationary. Perhaps it was just backing up to fill that small open gap?
The dollar also filled a small overhead gap, but it's tough to see where this trend wants to go. We saw a mini breakdown from a small rising trading channel the other day, but it also looks like it could be some kind of bullish flag. Nothing is overly clear.
Congress did manage to come up with something to avoid the U.S. hitting the debt ceiling next week. It's a sign of relief, but they always seem to make last minute saves, so I don't know if the market cares.
The market chewed me up and spit me out yesterday in my ETF trading and I feel a little played. But nobody likes a whiner and unfortunately all I have to talk about today would sound like whining, so I'll cut this short today. Enjoy your weekend!
Even yesterday the initial jobless claims report came out about 40,000 below the estimate. That sounds good for the economy since it was stronger than expected, but with the market on inflation and interest rate watch, it wasn't great for the stock market.
But to confuse us even more, the inflationary plays like gold, silver, bond yields, even bitcoin, were all sharply lower?
Today we get the important CPI, and who knows? Big number, small number, near the estimates or off, the media's constant hype of these make it tough to know what to do, and with our limited TSP transactions each month and the early transaction deadline, it can be tough trying to do the right thing. It's all done that way so that you don't touch your money and just leave it be. That's what they'd prefer.
The market will be on full alert after the CPI with the impending FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down on a day that where we got some data that suggested something more inflationary. Perhaps it was just backing up to fill that small open gap?
The dollar also filled a small overhead gap, but it's tough to see where this trend wants to go. We saw a mini breakdown from a small rising trading channel the other day, but it also looks like it could be some kind of bullish flag. Nothing is overly clear.
Congress did manage to come up with something to avoid the U.S. hitting the debt ceiling next week. It's a sign of relief, but they always seem to make last minute saves, so I don't know if the market cares.
The market chewed me up and spit me out yesterday in my ETF trading and I feel a little played. But nobody likes a whiner and unfortunately all I have to talk about today would sound like whining, so I'll cut this short today. Enjoy your weekend!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) seems to be starting to fill in that right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder pattern that we highlighted yesterday. There's an open gap near 4610 that needs filling, but also several small ones well below that. Today's CPI report should have an impact but we don't know if it will come inline, better, or worse than expected. Next week's Fed meeting may keep investors on guard as well and the CPI is one the Fed watches closely.
The DWCPF Index (S-fund) got slammed after its big three day rally. Not exactly a surprise given the open gap and steep decline, but I was thinking we could see a day or two of consolidation before an all out sell off. The orange moving average is obviously still quite meaningful on this chart. The close above it on Wednesday was the smoke screen.
The EFA (I-fund) was down on the day as the dollar moved higher. The large gap below seems like an obvious target and the 50-day EMA held as resistance. That seems like a bearish set up to me but the market seems to like to get us leaning the wrong way, so who knows?
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up but the chart did not improve as it remains below the key moving averages and trending lower toward the large open gap and the bottom of the channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
