Stocks opened higher on Thursday, but many indices immediately hit the tops of their short-term ranges and flipped right back over, closing closer to the lows of the day. The Dow lost a modest 97-points, the S&P500 and Nasdaq had more meaningful declines, while the small caps and I-fund stocks were hit hard as the recent back and forth action continued. We saw some volatility in yields and the price of oil, which moved over 116 at one point in the day.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran up at the opening yesterday and it even overtook the 200-day EMA before pulling back and closing back below it. Looking at the indicators, charts and averages, this really looks like a coin flip. Perhaps the market stays headline driven with no solid direction for a while? Perhaps the jobs report will choose the direction - or, it could set up a fading opportunity.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) was slammed yesterday and it too is just oscillating back and forth in a wide range since the rally off the lows late last month. Resistance is falling so I would give the bears the edge in this chart, but if the pattern continues, we could see another bounce today.
The EFA (I-fund) made another new closing low as the dollar moved higher again. 71 looks like some possible support, but the support line is descending.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) bounced back from Wednesday's big sell off. The downtrend was recently broken but the 50-day EMA has acted as resistance.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Many of the indices have been trading sideways since that positive reversal day last Thursday, the day of the invasion of Ukraine, which has so far been a firm low for stocks. A test of those lows is always a possibility and the recent weakness and high volatility has hinted that we could see that, but the bulls have remained fairly resilient in recent days despite the bears not backing down yet.
The price of oil has been one of the recent catalysts. We saw what I thought could be a reversal last week on the 24th, but it didn't take long before we saw even more extreme prices on the upside, and yesterday's high of 116.57 was the highest price since 2008, but we did see it back off by the close to settle near 108. I don't know if the stock market will move in step with oil, counter to it, etc., but for all practical purposes the price is now hurting consumers as we see gasoline selling in parts of the country near or over $4, and even $5 a gallon, depending where you live.
The Yield on the 10-yer Treasury was up initially on Thursday but slipped lower as the day wore on, an d that helped give the F-fund a bounce back gain.
We get the February jobs report this morning and they are expected a gain of 400,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%.
The price of oil has been one of the recent catalysts. We saw what I thought could be a reversal last week on the 24th, but it didn't take long before we saw even more extreme prices on the upside, and yesterday's high of 116.57 was the highest price since 2008, but we did see it back off by the close to settle near 108. I don't know if the stock market will move in step with oil, counter to it, etc., but for all practical purposes the price is now hurting consumers as we see gasoline selling in parts of the country near or over $4, and even $5 a gallon, depending where you live.
The Yield on the 10-yer Treasury was up initially on Thursday but slipped lower as the day wore on, an d that helped give the F-fund a bounce back gain.
We get the February jobs report this morning and they are expected a gain of 400,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran up at the opening yesterday and it even overtook the 200-day EMA before pulling back and closing back below it. Looking at the indicators, charts and averages, this really looks like a coin flip. Perhaps the market stays headline driven with no solid direction for a while? Perhaps the jobs report will choose the direction - or, it could set up a fading opportunity.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) was slammed yesterday and it too is just oscillating back and forth in a wide range since the rally off the lows late last month. Resistance is falling so I would give the bears the edge in this chart, but if the pattern continues, we could see another bounce today.
The EFA (I-fund) made another new closing low as the dollar moved higher again. 71 looks like some possible support, but the support line is descending.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) bounced back from Wednesday's big sell off. The downtrend was recently broken but the 50-day EMA has acted as resistance.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
