Was it end of the month / pre-holiday weekend shenanigans, or the start of another leg higher? Stocks jumped late on Friday afternoon to close out a wild month for the stock market. The gains pushed all of the TSP stock funds into positive territory for the month, after the awful start stocks had in August. Bonds were down as yields moved higher.
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Look at those rallies above in the final minutes of trading on Friday - a Friday that was the final trading day of the month, and before a 3-day weekend. Trading volume was unusually high for a Friday before a holiday weekend, because I would have thought most of those Wall Street folks were heading to the Hamptons way before the closing bell, so what was going on? Was it a pre-holiday reversal that will get taken back today, or did some kind of switch get pulled with that PCE Prices report?
The late rally pushed the C and S-funds into positive territory for the week, and the 0.76% gain in the S-fund was the difference between a positive and negative month for that fund. For the S&P 500 (C-fund) the action in that last couple of hours of trading turned what could have been a negative reversal day and a possible rollover pattern, into a possible breakout attempt, and the second highest closer ever for the index.
The 10-year Treasury Yield jumped on the weak inflation data? OK, that's interesting. There is some overhead resistance and if the F-fund wants to keep its positive trend going, this yield chart probably needs to slow its recent rally as that curl upward nears some resistance. There's also an open gap and the 50-day EMA between 4.0% and 4.1%.
The dollar was due for some relief and its had a big three day rally. It looks just like one of those pre-holiday reversals.
The September seasonality chart is not the most bullish chart in the world. It's actually the worst monthly chart of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
And again, September and October during election years are particularly rough, especially when it's an open field (red line), which technically this one has become with President Biden getting out of the race.
The charts look impressive and we should see an interest rate cut on the 18th this month, but after the late fishy rally on Friday, the seasonality effect, and the overstretched market, September will certainly be open to many possibilities.
The August AutoTracker winners have been posted and it was a wild month! Here are the winners and here are the monthly and annual (non-premium members) standings through August. Track your return on the AutoTracker - it's free!
Administrative Note: It's time for the 2024 NFL Survivor Contest. It's easy, and free! Deadline is Sunday Sep 8 at 1 PM ET: More information.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) popped higher in late trading on Friday and it is flirting with the all time highs and the top of the open gap from July 16 - 17. The recent sideways action created what can be considered a bullish flag. The double top is holding but it hasn't been much of pullback yet. Is this going to run higher and leave the open gap from August 15 behind?
The DWCPF (S-fund) seems to be creating the right shoulder of that big inverted head and shoulder pattern, and it's debatable whether that shoulder is completing or still has some filling in to do. Either are legit possibilities although a test near 2080 might be more conventional. These patterns do tend to eventually breakout to the upside, but will it continue to negotiate that right shoulder first?
The EFA (I-fund) made another new closing high on Friday as the "F" flag, or possibly a mini rising wedge pattern continues to stretch out. That's the good news. The bad news is both of those patterns tend to eventually breakdown, but you never know how long a flag can stretch before breaking.
BND (F-fund) had another bad day as it has failed to breakout after a couple of opportunities to do so. That is still considered a bullish cup and handle formation, but those yields have to stop going higher for this to make a new high.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Look at those rallies above in the final minutes of trading on Friday - a Friday that was the final trading day of the month, and before a 3-day weekend. Trading volume was unusually high for a Friday before a holiday weekend, because I would have thought most of those Wall Street folks were heading to the Hamptons way before the closing bell, so what was going on? Was it a pre-holiday reversal that will get taken back today, or did some kind of switch get pulled with that PCE Prices report?
The late rally pushed the C and S-funds into positive territory for the week, and the 0.76% gain in the S-fund was the difference between a positive and negative month for that fund. For the S&P 500 (C-fund) the action in that last couple of hours of trading turned what could have been a negative reversal day and a possible rollover pattern, into a possible breakout attempt, and the second highest closer ever for the index.
The 10-year Treasury Yield jumped on the weak inflation data? OK, that's interesting. There is some overhead resistance and if the F-fund wants to keep its positive trend going, this yield chart probably needs to slow its recent rally as that curl upward nears some resistance. There's also an open gap and the 50-day EMA between 4.0% and 4.1%.
The dollar was due for some relief and its had a big three day rally. It looks just like one of those pre-holiday reversals.
The September seasonality chart is not the most bullish chart in the world. It's actually the worst monthly chart of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
And again, September and October during election years are particularly rough, especially when it's an open field (red line), which technically this one has become with President Biden getting out of the race.
The charts look impressive and we should see an interest rate cut on the 18th this month, but after the late fishy rally on Friday, the seasonality effect, and the overstretched market, September will certainly be open to many possibilities.
The August AutoTracker winners have been posted and it was a wild month! Here are the winners and here are the monthly and annual (non-premium members) standings through August. Track your return on the AutoTracker - it's free!
Administrative Note: It's time for the 2024 NFL Survivor Contest. It's easy, and free! Deadline is Sunday Sep 8 at 1 PM ET: More information.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) popped higher in late trading on Friday and it is flirting with the all time highs and the top of the open gap from July 16 - 17. The recent sideways action created what can be considered a bullish flag. The double top is holding but it hasn't been much of pullback yet. Is this going to run higher and leave the open gap from August 15 behind?
The DWCPF (S-fund) seems to be creating the right shoulder of that big inverted head and shoulder pattern, and it's debatable whether that shoulder is completing or still has some filling in to do. Either are legit possibilities although a test near 2080 might be more conventional. These patterns do tend to eventually breakout to the upside, but will it continue to negotiate that right shoulder first?
The EFA (I-fund) made another new closing high on Friday as the "F" flag, or possibly a mini rising wedge pattern continues to stretch out. That's the good news. The bad news is both of those patterns tend to eventually breakdown, but you never know how long a flag can stretch before breaking.
BND (F-fund) had another bad day as it has failed to breakout after a couple of opportunities to do so. That is still considered a bullish cup and handle formation, but those yields have to stop going higher for this to make a new high.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
