Stocks were mixed on Tuesday with the Dow up 46-point, the S&P 500 down, small caps up, the Nasdaq down, but other than the small caps, most of the indices were near flat on the day. Bonds were also flat and the dollar was down again but looked like it wanted reverse higher.
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It was kind of an odd start to June. We have come to expect big moves on the first trading day of a new month - sometimes a change in direction, sometimes a smoke screen as the market reverses on day two, but usually something interesting. This one turned out to be a little uneventful, but also a little confusing.
The futures were down overnight on Monday into Tuesday morning, but stocks rallied early yesterday, then faded late so there was a tug-o-war going on.
Here's the chart of the dollar showing a failed breakout after it pushed above that resistance line last week. But it closed at the highs of the day pushing up against the old resistance line again.
To follow up on yesterday's commodity check, corn was up another 5% yesterday, soybeans +1%, lumber was actually down but oil gained over 2%.
And stocks also seemed to be held up in the weakness of the dollar but again we are seeing divergences. The futures market charts are more pronounced showing a big positive outside reversal day on the Russell futures, and a negative outside reversal day on the Nasdaq futures. The Russell 2000 cash chart didn't show an outside reversal day - just a reversal - but still it had a big gain...
The Nasdaq futures and the cash chart below posted negative outside reversal days, and closed down on the day, so perhaps we're still rotating into the reopening stocks and out the more stay at home tech stocks.
After I droned on for quite a bit in Tuesday's commentary, I'll keep it quick today just touching on the action in the TSP Fund charts below.
Admin note: While prepping for our new premium feature, the Last Look Report, and diving into our payment processing code, I decided it was time to finally clean things up and get rid of the annoying .95 or .99 cents on some of our subscription prices and round up a penny to get whole dollars. So you may be seeing the price of a monthly subscription to RevShark for example, which has been $19.95 for 15 years, is going to $20 even. TSP Talk Plus will go up a penny from $17.99 to $18. I hope this isn't a problem for any of you.
As for The Last Look Report, we're planning on implementing it next Monday with free access through that week, with a possible sneak peek later this week to a few forum members for some feedback. The info will come in a daily email from TommyIV about 30 minutes before the IFT deadline to help us make any last minute allocation decisions. It will also be posted in the premium area once the free trial is over. I'm sure it will evolve after we get started. The cost will be $10 a month, or $5 for those already subscribed to another service. Here's some info and a sample of what subscribers may get each morning. The Last Look Report Info. We worked on the backend stuff all weekend and we've already made a few changes from what you see there. I hope you like it. Thanks.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) posted a negative reversal day after attempting to push to new highs again. Support has been holding at the 50-day EMA, and as of yesterday that 4200 area has been holding as resistance. There are still a couple of open gaps on the chart that could always be a target on any pullback, but the first order of business is whether we get a double top (or is it a triple top?) pullback from this 4200 area, or a breakout.
The DWCPF (S-fund) inches above yet another level of resistance after a solid 0.57% gain yesterday. We have a rising wedge pattern, which could be bearish, and there are other levels of resistance that could get in the way, but the momentum is still on the bulls' side until the bears step in and change that.
The EFA / I-fund hit the top of its long rising trading channel and backed off. This looks like it may want to take a pause for a while, but there is still a lot of support rising from below in that 50-day EMA.
BND (bonds / F-fund) ended the day flat but reversed after a weak morning. The 50-day EMA held as support, but as you can see, that average doesn't have a whole lot of ability to support or resist for very long. It looks like that orange line off the recent highs could be the resistance area to watch.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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It was kind of an odd start to June. We have come to expect big moves on the first trading day of a new month - sometimes a change in direction, sometimes a smoke screen as the market reverses on day two, but usually something interesting. This one turned out to be a little uneventful, but also a little confusing.
The futures were down overnight on Monday into Tuesday morning, but stocks rallied early yesterday, then faded late so there was a tug-o-war going on.
Here's the chart of the dollar showing a failed breakout after it pushed above that resistance line last week. But it closed at the highs of the day pushing up against the old resistance line again.
To follow up on yesterday's commodity check, corn was up another 5% yesterday, soybeans +1%, lumber was actually down but oil gained over 2%.
And stocks also seemed to be held up in the weakness of the dollar but again we are seeing divergences. The futures market charts are more pronounced showing a big positive outside reversal day on the Russell futures, and a negative outside reversal day on the Nasdaq futures. The Russell 2000 cash chart didn't show an outside reversal day - just a reversal - but still it had a big gain...
The Nasdaq futures and the cash chart below posted negative outside reversal days, and closed down on the day, so perhaps we're still rotating into the reopening stocks and out the more stay at home tech stocks.
After I droned on for quite a bit in Tuesday's commentary, I'll keep it quick today just touching on the action in the TSP Fund charts below.
Admin note: While prepping for our new premium feature, the Last Look Report, and diving into our payment processing code, I decided it was time to finally clean things up and get rid of the annoying .95 or .99 cents on some of our subscription prices and round up a penny to get whole dollars. So you may be seeing the price of a monthly subscription to RevShark for example, which has been $19.95 for 15 years, is going to $20 even. TSP Talk Plus will go up a penny from $17.99 to $18. I hope this isn't a problem for any of you.
As for The Last Look Report, we're planning on implementing it next Monday with free access through that week, with a possible sneak peek later this week to a few forum members for some feedback. The info will come in a daily email from TommyIV about 30 minutes before the IFT deadline to help us make any last minute allocation decisions. It will also be posted in the premium area once the free trial is over. I'm sure it will evolve after we get started. The cost will be $10 a month, or $5 for those already subscribed to another service. Here's some info and a sample of what subscribers may get each morning. The Last Look Report Info. We worked on the backend stuff all weekend and we've already made a few changes from what you see there. I hope you like it. Thanks.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) posted a negative reversal day after attempting to push to new highs again. Support has been holding at the 50-day EMA, and as of yesterday that 4200 area has been holding as resistance. There are still a couple of open gaps on the chart that could always be a target on any pullback, but the first order of business is whether we get a double top (or is it a triple top?) pullback from this 4200 area, or a breakout.
The DWCPF (S-fund) inches above yet another level of resistance after a solid 0.57% gain yesterday. We have a rising wedge pattern, which could be bearish, and there are other levels of resistance that could get in the way, but the momentum is still on the bulls' side until the bears step in and change that.
The EFA / I-fund hit the top of its long rising trading channel and backed off. This looks like it may want to take a pause for a while, but there is still a lot of support rising from below in that 50-day EMA.
BND (bonds / F-fund) ended the day flat but reversed after a weak morning. The 50-day EMA held as support, but as you can see, that average doesn't have a whole lot of ability to support or resist for very long. It looks like that orange line off the recent highs could be the resistance area to watch.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
