The stock market bounced back from Wednesday's post-Fed sell-off, recapturing a large majority of the losses. If that wasn't enough, Amazon and Meta reported after the bell and were each up big in after hours trading. Apple also reported and it was trading down some but the over all equity futures were up a health amount on Thursday evening. If that holds it will be on top of the 1% gains we saw across the board yesterday. Bonds were up as yields fell sharply again.
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So far this week has lived up to its billing as busy market moving week. And, before we even get to the opening bell on Friday to see what those strong earnings reports out of those Magnificent 7 stocks gives us, they will throw the January jobs report at us.
Estimates for the jobs report are expecting a gain of about 175,000 jobs. The December report came in strong with 216,000 jobs create but don't forget that 10 of the prior 11 jobs reports were revised down.
The 10-year Yield fell sharply yesterday, although it did close off its lows of the day after nearing the prior lows. Small caps were down lagging badly early yesterday despite the decline in yields and that had me scratching my head, so I felt a lot better when I saw they climbed back to close in line with the S&P 500 gains.
The dollar was down also on Thursday so yesterday was just a complete reversal of Thursday overreaction to the Fed.
Caution! Paranoia alert coming: Does anyone think that the action on Wednesday had something to do with some institutions or influential traders / investors wanting to buy lower before Meta, Amazon, and Apple reported after the bell yesterday? Not only were they rewarded by the close on Thursday if they bought the futures Thursday evening or early Friday morning, but it looks like Friday will be a good day for them as well. That is unless the jobs report doesn't change the momentum back to the bears' side.
It's Friday and it has been a wild weak and I'm a little burned out. Bottom line, the charts look good although the sell-off on Wednesday did open a few cracks that may come back to bite (see the small caps chart), but for now the ball remains in the bulls' court.
The January AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Good luck to everyone in February, which is off to fast, bullish start.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) recaptured a large portion of Wednesday's loss but not all of it, and it hasn't yet filled Wednesday's small open gap. We have the jobs report at 8:30 ET this morning and that could change things, but right now we're looking at a possible gap up open after those earnings reports after the bell yesterday. So the chart is back flirting with all time highs and the trend, albeit very stretched, is still on the upside.
DWCPF (S-fund) also bounced back yesterday although it did have a slow start. You can see in the chart that the DWCPF was down below Wednesday's lows at one point yesterday before reversing and closing at the highs. That long kangaroo tail reversal is a bullish sign for the short-term, but did that just create a bear flag on this chart?
The EFA (I-fund) gained back all of Wednesday's losses and more, closing at levels not seen in the fall of 2021. The double top could kick in and push it down again, but with the futures up it looks more like a potential breakout.
BND (bonds, F-fund) tested, and bested, the December highs but it couldn't quite close above the old high. This has been a classic bull flag breakout so far for the F-fund, and while there is some resistance in the way, the bull flag suggests higher prices, even if there is a little pullback in the short-term to test the breakout line near 73.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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So far this week has lived up to its billing as busy market moving week. And, before we even get to the opening bell on Friday to see what those strong earnings reports out of those Magnificent 7 stocks gives us, they will throw the January jobs report at us.
Estimates for the jobs report are expecting a gain of about 175,000 jobs. The December report came in strong with 216,000 jobs create but don't forget that 10 of the prior 11 jobs reports were revised down.
The 10-year Yield fell sharply yesterday, although it did close off its lows of the day after nearing the prior lows. Small caps were down lagging badly early yesterday despite the decline in yields and that had me scratching my head, so I felt a lot better when I saw they climbed back to close in line with the S&P 500 gains.
The dollar was down also on Thursday so yesterday was just a complete reversal of Thursday overreaction to the Fed.
Caution! Paranoia alert coming: Does anyone think that the action on Wednesday had something to do with some institutions or influential traders / investors wanting to buy lower before Meta, Amazon, and Apple reported after the bell yesterday? Not only were they rewarded by the close on Thursday if they bought the futures Thursday evening or early Friday morning, but it looks like Friday will be a good day for them as well. That is unless the jobs report doesn't change the momentum back to the bears' side.
It's Friday and it has been a wild weak and I'm a little burned out. Bottom line, the charts look good although the sell-off on Wednesday did open a few cracks that may come back to bite (see the small caps chart), but for now the ball remains in the bulls' court.
The January AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Good luck to everyone in February, which is off to fast, bullish start.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) recaptured a large portion of Wednesday's loss but not all of it, and it hasn't yet filled Wednesday's small open gap. We have the jobs report at 8:30 ET this morning and that could change things, but right now we're looking at a possible gap up open after those earnings reports after the bell yesterday. So the chart is back flirting with all time highs and the trend, albeit very stretched, is still on the upside.
DWCPF (S-fund) also bounced back yesterday although it did have a slow start. You can see in the chart that the DWCPF was down below Wednesday's lows at one point yesterday before reversing and closing at the highs. That long kangaroo tail reversal is a bullish sign for the short-term, but did that just create a bear flag on this chart?
The EFA (I-fund) gained back all of Wednesday's losses and more, closing at levels not seen in the fall of 2021. The double top could kick in and push it down again, but with the futures up it looks more like a potential breakout.
BND (bonds, F-fund) tested, and bested, the December highs but it couldn't quite close above the old high. This has been a classic bull flag breakout so far for the F-fund, and while there is some resistance in the way, the bull flag suggests higher prices, even if there is a little pullback in the short-term to test the breakout line near 73.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
