It was a slow but volatile day for stocks to start the week. The Dow gained a point, giving up a solid triple digit gain late. The broader indices were mixed as large tech stocks held back the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while small caps held onto a moderate gain. Bonds were up as yields backed off slightly from Friday's big move higher. The dollar was relatively flat but the chart looks troublesome.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) trading in a more narrow range yesterday compared to last week but it still felt volatile as the indices bounced between gains and losses all day. You can see that the 50-day (purple) and 20-day (green) EMAs are causing some trouble. Friday's low looks like decent support, but maybe not strong enough to call that a low. It sure looks like it wants to test those January lows, but that's no guarantee.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) was up but closed well off the highs after flipping over at the 20-day EMA and closing near the lows of the day. There is a descending resistance line (blue) that is also holding it back, and that red bear flag may be telling us that the next big move could be down. The size of the flag suggests a breakdown below the prior lows but again, no guarantees.
The EFA (I-fund) ended with a modest gain but it remains in a downtrend and below the 200-day EMA and other resistance.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) had a small gain and looks like it is due for a bounce, but it is still an ugly looking chart and once those gaps are filled I would not expect much more from bonds.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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It was a slow, light volume trading day but still enough wiggling to give day traders something to do. It's going to be a light week for economic data with the highlight being the January CPI Report on Thursday, but earnings are still coming in. The market movers have reported already but overall these new reports could set the tone for the week with little else happening.
We still have the geopolitical issues to deal with as Russia, Ukraine, and China remain on the market's radar.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up against some potential resistance after last week's big post-jobs report rally. At this point it will either blast off above resistance, or pullback in that red channel again.
The dollar was up a bit but so far no bounce off of last week's waterfall like decline.
The internal numbers were fairly positive with advancing issues and volume outpacing the decliners. The new lows are creeping up again.
Like I said, it could be a slow week, volume and catalyst-wise unless we get a headline that could ignite some movement. For now the bears seem to be able to push the indices down by selling the rallies, but so far no major attempt at a test of last month's lows. Some charts are indicating that it is still a good possibility.
We still have the geopolitical issues to deal with as Russia, Ukraine, and China remain on the market's radar.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up against some potential resistance after last week's big post-jobs report rally. At this point it will either blast off above resistance, or pullback in that red channel again.
The dollar was up a bit but so far no bounce off of last week's waterfall like decline.
The internal numbers were fairly positive with advancing issues and volume outpacing the decliners. The new lows are creeping up again.
Like I said, it could be a slow week, volume and catalyst-wise unless we get a headline that could ignite some movement. For now the bears seem to be able to push the indices down by selling the rallies, but so far no major attempt at a test of last month's lows. Some charts are indicating that it is still a good possibility.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) trading in a more narrow range yesterday compared to last week but it still felt volatile as the indices bounced between gains and losses all day. You can see that the 50-day (purple) and 20-day (green) EMAs are causing some trouble. Friday's low looks like decent support, but maybe not strong enough to call that a low. It sure looks like it wants to test those January lows, but that's no guarantee.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) was up but closed well off the highs after flipping over at the 20-day EMA and closing near the lows of the day. There is a descending resistance line (blue) that is also holding it back, and that red bear flag may be telling us that the next big move could be down. The size of the flag suggests a breakdown below the prior lows but again, no guarantees.
The EFA (I-fund) ended with a modest gain but it remains in a downtrend and below the 200-day EMA and other resistance.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) had a small gain and looks like it is due for a bounce, but it is still an ugly looking chart and once those gaps are filled I would not expect much more from bonds.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
