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Transfer 11/5 for 11/8/04
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
imported post
Remember, everything has changed. The bull is back so you want to err on the side of being too bullish rather than too bearish. I was reluctant to pull out because of this freight train moving forward. With this type of momentum, you never know where it will stop.
We will almost certainly be up by year's end so play the "wiggles" carefully and don't get too cute or you can miss out. The short term indicators are sending a red flag but I wentonly 50/50 again in case I'm wrong. The dips may be brief. If the longer term indicators weren't so positive I'd play more conservatively. There will be a better time to get cautious (ie 100% G)but right now is not that time, unless you are very agile.
Good luck!
Remember, everything has changed. The bull is back so you want to err on the side of being too bullish rather than too bearish. I was reluctant to pull out because of this freight train moving forward. With this type of momentum, you never know where it will stop.
We will almost certainly be up by year's end so play the "wiggles" carefully and don't get too cute or you can miss out. The short term indicators are sending a red flag but I wentonly 50/50 again in case I'm wrong. The dips may be brief. If the longer term indicators weren't so positive I'd play more conservatively. There will be a better time to get cautious (ie 100% G)but right now is not that time, unless you are very agile.
Good luck!
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
I rember in late 1999, everyone had to have Tech stock, it was advancing like crazy. Your portfolio just wasen't complete with out it!
Market rule 101(a): What goes up has to come down!
Woops! Delete, Delete. Sorry, Igot in your account thread by...by... puter error!!!
I rember in late 1999, everyone had to have Tech stock, it was advancing like crazy. Your portfolio just wasen't complete with out it!
Market rule 101(a): What goes up has to come down!
Woops! Delete, Delete. Sorry, Igot in your account thread by...by... puter error!!!
Spaf -
imported post
The S fund is now suffering from the strong jobs number. A strong economy means interest rates are more likely to rise. Small caps are more interest rate sensitive than larger stocks. That is why people favored the larger stocks (C fund) and shied away from the small caps (S fund) onFriday - again. I may have to re-evaluate the C/S/I situation after the Feddoes his interest rate thing on Wednesday.
Again the market reacted before the news was released. Small caps lagged for several days leading up to the strong employment report.
The S fund is now suffering from the strong jobs number. A strong economy means interest rates are more likely to rise. Small caps are more interest rate sensitive than larger stocks. That is why people favored the larger stocks (C fund) and shied away from the small caps (S fund) onFriday - again. I may have to re-evaluate the C/S/I situation after the Feddoes his interest rate thing on Wednesday.
Again the market reacted before the news was released. Small caps lagged for several days leading up to the strong employment report.
imported post
Tom, I cut bait onearly Friday from 100% S to 100% G for the first time premised upon the very significant 9 days of gains and the pending FMOC meeting. The labor report guarentees a .25% increase and again during December.Cisco and Dell report (expected) very positive results COB Tuesday and Thursday. I'mmoving back into C Wed morning on the expected CISCO results as I believe the market players will have alreadyfactored in the 1/4 point raise and we are off to the races until Dec FMOC whereI intend to play the same hand. I guess the wild cards are oil adding to market sentiment which should drop and the dollar which can continue to weaken 5% by COY. So my playof C vice I is an interesting argument. I think C will outperform S as the money will pour into the largercompanies near-term. And lest I forget - big drop into year end retirement funds during January.10 - 13 % S&P by summerif luckyyyyyyyyyy by fund managers much smarter than me!
Tom, I cut bait onearly Friday from 100% S to 100% G for the first time premised upon the very significant 9 days of gains and the pending FMOC meeting. The labor report guarentees a .25% increase and again during December.Cisco and Dell report (expected) very positive results COB Tuesday and Thursday. I'mmoving back into C Wed morning on the expected CISCO results as I believe the market players will have alreadyfactored in the 1/4 point raise and we are off to the races until Dec FMOC whereI intend to play the same hand. I guess the wild cards are oil adding to market sentiment which should drop and the dollar which can continue to weaken 5% by COY. So my playof C vice I is an interesting argument. I think C will outperform S as the money will pour into the largercompanies near-term. And lest I forget - big drop into year end retirement funds during January.10 - 13 % S&P by summerif luckyyyyyyyyyy by fund managers much smarter than me!
jeeperspeepers
New member
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Okay, Tom. For a novice investor, should I, move my funds. I am presently 45 C, 45 S, 10 I. But I'm getting nervous. I'm too close to retirement to risk losing much, of course none of us want to do that. But I've been riding this wave and been very pleased in the last 4/5 days. What do you recommend now?
tsptalk wrote:
Okay, Tom. For a novice investor, should I, move my funds. I am presently 45 C, 45 S, 10 I. But I'm getting nervous. I'm too close to retirement to risk losing much, of course none of us want to do that. But I've been riding this wave and been very pleased in the last 4/5 days. What do you recommend now?
TSP-roulette
Well-known member
imported post
Tom is currently G-50% S-50% - I have been riding Tom's coat-tails since I joined the Forum and my account has done very well,
.
Thanks Tom.
Tom is currently G-50% S-50% - I have been riding Tom's coat-tails since I joined the Forum and my account has done very well,
. Thanks Tom.
imported post
jeeperspeepers wrote:
I usually don't like to "recommend" anything since we all have different situations. I let everyone know what I'm doing and why so it will help you decide what might be best for you.
That said, take a look at the currentlonger term allocation recommendations I have... [url]http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html[/url]. It's toward the bottom of the page. You'd probably be on the moderate to conservative side. Hope that helps some.
jeeperspeepers wrote:
Hi Jeepers -
I usually don't like to "recommend" anything since we all have different situations. I let everyone know what I'm doing and why so it will help you decide what might be best for you.
That said, take a look at the currentlonger term allocation recommendations I have... [url]http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html[/url]. It's toward the bottom of the page. You'd probably be on the moderate to conservative side. Hope that helps some.
