Good morning
It's been a tough week, I've been at home on Conv. leave, watching the markets in real-time and it hasn't been any fun when it's tanking and so are your positions. If you read Tuesday's blog then you know we had triggered the Down Friday & Monday Indicator, which hints at a 75% probability the markets will go lower than Monday's close, with the highest probability of the lowest close on Friday. I wanted to present this data on Monday, but the stats I had were based on intraday prices, not closing prices, so I just threw something together and rushed it out.
Having this time off (and not being able to do much of anything else) has allowed me the time needed to start consolidating and extrapolating price, into a user format the reader can quickly understand. Now that I've begun streamlining processes, this will free up more time to further my education into other unexplored areas.
The next two charts illustrate the key differences between Friday & Monday's price action. Going back to the previous 25, 50 and 100 events for each day, gives us a good idea of where the trends are and if the trends are coming or going. I do have almost 1000 events on each day, but the more data we use, the more it tends to equalize, the key is to trade with the trends that are being used now, not the trends that existed in 1950. Going back 100 events gives us a little more than 2 years worth of data.
Moving on, as you can see, Friday & Monday definitively exhibit different trends. I've added a few other features such as the Top & Bottom 3 events for each category, and the bar charts for those of us who like pretty colors. I'm not going to tell you how many hours it takes to get to this phase, these are still in rough draft form, so be warned there may be errors I haven't yet discovered. The good news is that eventually it will get to the point where all of this is automated, it just isn't there yet...
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Take care & trade safe...Jason
---------------------DISCLAIMER--------------------
The majority of this data is based off the S&P 500's past prices, typically over the last 20 years. If this data does not come from the S&P 500, then I will state what index it is derived from, otherwise assume it is of the same source. While most of the data is computer generated, much of it is still done by hand and is therefore subject to the occasional human error. Past data does not guarantee future results! We are all grownups here so we should already know we are each individually responsible for our own accounts, so if it doesn't work out, it's your own fault. Occasional I get PMs from newer members, asking me what to do with their accounts, so here's my answer. Find out what DCA is then do it for a long time. In the meantime read, read, read, then practice what you read, then figure out where you screwed up, then start the process all over again.
The majority of this data is based off the S&P 500's past prices, typically over the last 20 years. If this data does not come from the S&P 500, then I will state what index it is derived from, otherwise assume it is of the same source. While most of the data is computer generated, much of it is still done by hand and is therefore subject to the occasional human error. Past data does not guarantee future results! We are all grownups here so we should already know we are each individually responsible for our own accounts, so if it doesn't work out, it's your own fault. Occasional I get PMs from newer members, asking me what to do with their accounts, so here's my answer. Find out what DCA is then do it for a long time. In the meantime read, read, read, then practice what you read, then figure out where you screwed up, then start the process all over again.
