08/06/13
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Stocks floundered most of the day yesterday although the results were mixed. The Dow, S&P 500, the I-fund, and the Transports were all down, while the Nasdaq and small caps closed higher.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0177%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been holding above the recent breakout area, and these sideways consolidations have tended to lead to another push higher this year. Trading volume was extremely light on this mid-summer Monday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It's not a major concern, but probably worth mentioning... Volume was so low yesterday in the S&P 500 ETF 'SPY', that there has only been one day since the end of 2009 with lighter volume, and that was last Christmas Eve. If you exclude the days surrounding Christmas, the 54 million shares traded in SPY yesterday was more than 11 million fewer than the next lightest day going back to Jan 2010.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Despite recent new highs, the NYSE overbought/oversold indicator is just south of the neutral line. Again, not a major concern, but interesting to note: New highs and on the oversold side.
Source: S&P 500
The 10-day moving average of the put / call ratios shows the dumb money rolling over just below recent highs so they are close to being excessively bullish (which tends to be bearish), while the smart money is nearly touching the 2.0 to 1 ratio, which would put them close to being extremely bearish, or defensive (which tends to be bearish.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
If volume doesn't pick up, and/or we don't get a little volatility kicking in soon, this will be a dull week for market commentary. That is usually a bullish sign since "they" say, never short (bet against) a dull market. But light volume trading can sometimes lead to big moves since the indices can get pushed around more easily, particularly if something out of the ordinary happens.
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
