Tomncath's Account Talk

[Tomncath]

Sitting on the sidelines, learning from everyone else....

 

[Tomncath]

Is Technical Analysis valid anymore? Roho posted this in Day to Day talk yesterday. :blink:


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

 

[DrFaustus]

I don't know ... this market just seems to be jumping from one place to another with no apparent rhyme or reason why. But Chart Analysis seems to be holding up well ... at least its based on what the market has actually been doing, not what people think the next hot sector is going to be.

 

[Tomncath]

Thanks Dan. I watch your posts closely...just trying to figure out how to profit with only three IFTs a month and was wondering if the lack of a an Uptick rule was making it near impossible now that the Shorts can really draw things down to an exaggerated level.


Tom

 

[Birchtree]

Can it be a bear market when every fundamentalist and technician declares it so. The market is doing a good job to keep bears, bears. The market's job is to keep the majority from knowing what the true intentions will be.

 

[hessian]

Can it be a bear market when every fundamentalist and technician declares it so. The market is doing a good job to keep bears, bears. The market's job is to keep the majority from knowing what the true intentions will be.

Birch,
I find what you said above very intriguing - mind if I steal it for a moniker?
Seriously!
At this moment, this weekend, I'm nervous as a long-tailed cat in a roomful of rockingchairs (heard someone say that here before too) - but I like what you said above alot, and I think it may pretty much sum up the current situation.

I try not to be always bullish, or always bearish - just try to stay a couple steps (weeks) ahead when possible, and now trying more intermediate-term moves, I'm just now beginning to feel the "Pull" -precisely as you suggested above.
I think maybe, just maybe, the worm may have turned, as you suggest!
Nice! Thanks!

 

[Tomncath]

Well, for you guy's sake I hope your right. Since we have to move to the intermediate to long-term mindset I'll take my pennies from the G and take a nap now.... not looking to buy back in until we break 1275. :worried:

 

[Tomncath]

I woke up just long enough to brush the moth balls off this one and pop in into the VCR...still wondering about it.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBM8Q_w0wg&feature=related

 

[Tomncath]

GM should have tanked the market today, instead Warren Buffett starts pulling his shenanigans...I wonder how many stocks he gobbled up yesterday laughing all the way while covering the cost of his bond subsidies.

 

[Tomncath]

Hummm. Maybe now we know what the banks are planning to do with all that money they borrowed that isn't going back out into the economy....a bailout of bond insurers would sure prop the markets up, ya think? Na, this is all a smoke screen. At this rate it could be a long nap before we break 1275 tho! :notrust:

 

[Tomncath]

Come on baby, break 1275! I want to get off the Pass line....

 

[Tomncath]

We should see a short-term rally this week. While I'm still bearish for several months the UCLA Anderson report was surprisingly positive. Having said that I'm still planning intermediate-term moves as the 3 IFT/month regs are just around the corner now, thus I'll stay in the F Fund as long as the 10 Vr Treasury Noted MACD continues it's steep slope.

AP excerpts from the Anderson Report:

The biggest risk of recession comes from the credit crisis that emerged last year as home values began to tumble and the number of mortgage defaults and foreclosures soared, the economist said.

Major financial institutions were racked by credit losses as the value of securities backed by mortgages sank, causing the traditional outlet through which banks borrow money to seize up.

The credit woes have deepened the housing slump, making it harder for would-be homeowners to borrow money and for homeowners to refinance. But consumer spending, while weakened, hasn't declined severely due to credit problems, Leamer notes.

"Americans are not as wealthy as they thought they were, and that's going to factor into consumer spending going forward, but it doesn't cause a recession because consumers all realize their lack of wealth at different points in time," he said.

Another potential factor in a recession would be widespread job losses. Leamer, who has maintained a no-recession forecast in recent quarters, said that's not likely.

"So far the labor markets are slowing but not collapsing," he said.
The forecast calls for the nation's housing doldrums to continue "for a long time," Leamer said.

He expects housing starts, which fell from a high of 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million units this January, to bottom out in the summer.

 

[Tomncath]

"The financial market crisis that erupted in August 2007 has developed into the largest financial shock since the Great Depression," the IMF declared.

Been a while since I posted. I'd say this sums up my skepticism of my last post on the Anderson Report....