Three Questions

[Guest]

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Does anyone know if we will be able to reallocate our funds on an immediate basis anytime in the future?

I have been reading many of the posts and find one issue confusing: Some members refer to buying or not buying a fund at a certain time based on the price per share. However, most of the time members transfer between funds based on the direction expected for a particular fund seemingly without regard to the price per share. Should I interpret this as: some members disregard price per share, some members consider the direction expected is more important and then some consider both is important?
It confuses me when I read that many members are going to temporarily go into the G Fund 100% until the election and then get back into the stocks. These members do not seem to regard the price per share an issue.

Are there any statistics on how often a fund ends the day on the same direction it started the day on?

Thanks in advance.

 

[tsptalk]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Does anyone know if we will be able to reallocate our funds on an immediate basis anytime in the future?

I seriously doubt it. It took them years to get the daily transactions working.

I have been reading many of the posts and find one issue confusing: Some members refer to buying or not buying a fund at a certain time based on the price per share.

Not everyone may agree, but I don't think the share price means much at all.
The only thing that the share price tells us is which fund has done better since the inception of daily record keeping in June 2003. They all started at $10 at the time.

The only assumptions we can makeis that the the G fund shouldnever lose money. The S and I funds will probably bethe mostvolatile. The F fund will be the least volatile of the funds that can gain or lose value.

 

[Mike]

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Share price is important in the sense that I don't want to buy the I-fund at its current price level of nearly $14.

 

[Guest]

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Thank you Mike and Tom. Tom I thought you were going on a weekend vacation. Outstanding question perhaps someone else could answer:
Are there any statistics on how often a fund ends the day on the same direction it started the day on?

 

[tsptalk]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Thank you Mike and Tom. Tom I thought you were going on a weekend vacation.

I spent Thursday night up at Park City Utah. Came back Friday even. I did use the hotel's internet for a bit. Thanks for asking.

Outstanding question perhaps someone else could answer: Are there any statistics on how often a fund ends the day on the same direction it started the day on?

I don't have any stats but one thing I've talked about is what they call the smart money indicator - what the market does the first hour of the day versus the last hour of the day. If the market does better in the last hour of the day the smart money indicator goes up. The reason behind this is that the emotional, less sophisticated investors tend to do their trading early. The last hour is considered smarter money.

That doesn't answer your question but you can kind of look at the prior day's closing hour action vs. the current morning's opening action and decide what to do before the deadline.

 

[Guest]

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That’s helpful, thank you.
May I conclude that as TSP participants we are therefore kind‘a forced to be, “the emotional, less sophisticated investors?” - no response necessary.