-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Week Ahead..
- Thread starter Gaetaone
- Start date
Gaetaone
Member
Economic Calendar
DateTime (ET)/ StatisticForBriefing/ Report Rating
2-Jun10:00 AM Construction Spending D
2-Jun10:00 AM ISM Index
3-Jun12:00 AM Auto Sales C-
3-Jun12:00 AM Truck Sales C-
3-Jun10:00 AM Factory Orders D+
4-Jun8:15 AM ADP Employment
4-Jun8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. D+
4-Jun10:00 AM ISM Services
4-Jun10:30 AM Crude Inventories
5-Jun8:30 AM Initial Claims C+
6-Jun8:30 AMAverage WorkweekA
6-Jun8:30 AMHourly Earnings A
6-Jun8:30 AMNonfarm Payrolls A
6-Jun8:30 AMUnemployment Rate A
6-Jun10:00 AMWholesale Inventories D-
6-Jun3:00 PMConsumer Credit D-
DateTime (ET)/ StatisticForBriefing/ Report Rating
2-Jun10:00 AM Construction Spending D
2-Jun10:00 AM ISM Index
3-Jun12:00 AM Auto Sales C-
3-Jun12:00 AM Truck Sales C-
3-Jun10:00 AM Factory Orders D+
4-Jun8:15 AM ADP Employment
4-Jun8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. D+
4-Jun10:00 AM ISM Services
4-Jun10:30 AM Crude Inventories
5-Jun8:30 AM Initial Claims C+
6-Jun8:30 AMAverage WorkweekA
6-Jun8:30 AMHourly Earnings A
6-Jun8:30 AMNonfarm Payrolls A
6-Jun8:30 AMUnemployment Rate A
6-Jun10:00 AMWholesale Inventories D-
6-Jun3:00 PMConsumer Credit D-
Last edited:
Buster
Well-known member
Gaetaone
Member
This is cool... What's the key to knowing what the market will do?? Uranus..
http://www.astrologicalinvesting.com/html/articles_pages/articles-ra_twal-May11-08.htm
Astrologically
http://www.astrologicalinvesting.com/html/articles_pages/articles-ra_twal-May11-08.htm
Astrologically
Jupiter went Retrograde on Friday and Mars is shifting signs to Leo this weekend. I indicated last weekend that both are market-moving energy shifts.
The key remains Jupiter again forming an exact sextile with Uranus, which I touched on earlier. This aspect represents an “opportunity” for markets to expand.
On Monday and Tuesday, the Sun will light up that energy by making its own sextile to Uranus and trine with Jupiter.
The key remains Jupiter again forming an exact sextile with Uranus, which I touched on earlier. This aspect represents an “opportunity” for markets to expand.
On Monday and Tuesday, the Sun will light up that energy by making its own sextile to Uranus and trine with Jupiter.
Gaetaone
Member
ARGHHH.. I'm hosed.. Paulson speaking twice this week....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={3C9943D2-2BCD-4DCA-9958-19B17E6A1535}
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Further job losses could dash recovery hopes
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:49 p.m. EDT June 1, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Any notion that the economy has turned a corner toward recovery is likely to be dashed in the coming week by weak economic numbers on job growth, household wealth, auto sales, construction spending, and the factory sector, economists said.
The first week of the month is always the busiest, with two of the most important monthly indicators scheduled: the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and the Institute for Supply Management index for manufacturing on Monday. Both indicators are expected to show a sluggish economy. See Economic Calendar.
"Indicators as a whole are going to be tilted on the downside," wrote Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak twice, including a remote appearance at a major international monetary policy in Barcelona.
Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls will get the most attention. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch see payrolls falling by 50,000 in May, worse than the 20,000 lost in April and about average for the monthly losses this year.
It would be the fifth straight decline in payrolls.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.1% or perhaps 5.2% from 5% in April.
Job growth has been weak, but not as weak as it typically is during the first months of recession. Initial jobless claims have averaged about 370,000 per week, instead of the 400,000 or more that's typical.
"This reflects the fact that much of the non-financial corporate sector did not over-hire during this business cycle -- nonfarm payroll growth was only about two-thirds as fast as during the 1990s expansion - and therefore has less need to slash payrolls now that sales growth has slowed," wrote economists for Lehman Bros.
Lehman economists said expected job losses were likely concentrated in construction, manufacturing and retail. "Construction employment has still not fully adjusted to the 57% decline in housing starts."
Construction spending declined 0.5% in April after a 1.1% decrease in March, economists say. Commercial construction is beginning to slow, lagging behind the collapse in home building and the slowdown in the economy. The construction data will be released on Monday at the same time the ISM index is released.
Manufacturing
The ISM is expected to be nearly unchanged at 48.7% in May vs. 48.6% in April, the economists say. At that level, the ISM shows a contraction in manufacturing activity, but not the collapse normally seen in recessions.
The auto sector is weighing on manufacturing. Motor vehicle sales, especially of the trucks Detroit has found so profitable in the past, are expected to fall yet again in May when they're reported by the automakers on Tuesday.
But exports are growing. "The weak dollar coupled with solid global activity has helped manufacturing hold up better than expected," wrote economists for Wachovia.
New orders are weaker than inventories for the first time since 2001, noted economists for Credit Suisse.
Falling home prices have sapped the net worth of Americans. On Thursday, the Fed will report on the wealth and borrowing of the economy in its quarterly flow of funds report. Net worth dropped at a 3.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and likely accelerated in the first quarter.
The report will also detail how households and businesses are coping with the severe credit crunch stemming from the collapse of structured financing
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={3C9943D2-2BCD-4DCA-9958-19B17E6A1535}
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Further job losses could dash recovery hopes
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:49 p.m. EDT June 1, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Any notion that the economy has turned a corner toward recovery is likely to be dashed in the coming week by weak economic numbers on job growth, household wealth, auto sales, construction spending, and the factory sector, economists said.
The first week of the month is always the busiest, with two of the most important monthly indicators scheduled: the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and the Institute for Supply Management index for manufacturing on Monday. Both indicators are expected to show a sluggish economy. See Economic Calendar.
"Indicators as a whole are going to be tilted on the downside," wrote Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak twice, including a remote appearance at a major international monetary policy in Barcelona.
Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls will get the most attention. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch see payrolls falling by 50,000 in May, worse than the 20,000 lost in April and about average for the monthly losses this year.
It would be the fifth straight decline in payrolls.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.1% or perhaps 5.2% from 5% in April.
Job growth has been weak, but not as weak as it typically is during the first months of recession. Initial jobless claims have averaged about 370,000 per week, instead of the 400,000 or more that's typical.
"This reflects the fact that much of the non-financial corporate sector did not over-hire during this business cycle -- nonfarm payroll growth was only about two-thirds as fast as during the 1990s expansion - and therefore has less need to slash payrolls now that sales growth has slowed," wrote economists for Lehman Bros.
Lehman economists said expected job losses were likely concentrated in construction, manufacturing and retail. "Construction employment has still not fully adjusted to the 57% decline in housing starts."
Construction spending declined 0.5% in April after a 1.1% decrease in March, economists say. Commercial construction is beginning to slow, lagging behind the collapse in home building and the slowdown in the economy. The construction data will be released on Monday at the same time the ISM index is released.
Manufacturing
The ISM is expected to be nearly unchanged at 48.7% in May vs. 48.6% in April, the economists say. At that level, the ISM shows a contraction in manufacturing activity, but not the collapse normally seen in recessions.
The auto sector is weighing on manufacturing. Motor vehicle sales, especially of the trucks Detroit has found so profitable in the past, are expected to fall yet again in May when they're reported by the automakers on Tuesday.
But exports are growing. "The weak dollar coupled with solid global activity has helped manufacturing hold up better than expected," wrote economists for Wachovia.
New orders are weaker than inventories for the first time since 2001, noted economists for Credit Suisse.
Falling home prices have sapped the net worth of Americans. On Thursday, the Fed will report on the wealth and borrowing of the economy in its quarterly flow of funds report. Net worth dropped at a 3.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and likely accelerated in the first quarter.
The report will also detail how households and businesses are coping with the severe credit crunch stemming from the collapse of structured financing
Gaetaone
Member
I have to look for hope for the week because I'm in and hate to use a precious IFT. That said, if the maket starts to go I'm thinking it's going to be a wild ride and getting out early is wise.... The article provides best guess on the weeks economic reports (which all appear to be negative). If we can get oil to continue to drop and keep reports within expectations we might have an okay week. Raise a glass for 1st week of June seasonality!! Best of luck to everyone in the week ahead...
John
By Reuters 01 June 2008
If the jobs report and other economic releases confirm the past week's decent numbers and if oil doesn't throw a wrench in the works, stocks could start June on a strong note. If that is the case, investors could shift more of their money from bonds back into stocks as confidence grows, analysts said.
Economic data this past week added to evidence that the United States may stave off recession. The Commerce Department said on Thursday the U.S. economy grew faster than initially measured in the first quarter as demand for foreign goods fell and commercial building picked up. The robust data helped the market rebound conomic data this past week added to evidence that the United States may stave off recession.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday the U.S. economy grew faster than initially measured in the first quarter as demand for foreign goods fell and commercial building picked up.
The robust data helped the market rebound
The Dow gained 1.3 percent and the S&P rose 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq was the outperformer of the week, climbing 3.2 percent.
Next week brings a heavy load of economic numbers for investors to consider, with Friday's jobs report the one that will garner the most attention. "The May employment report will give us a clear indication on the impact on the economy from higher oil prices and credit conditions," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, New York. The direction of stocks has inversely tracked the price of oil recently, with a retreat in crude this week playing a big part in the market's gains. Oil's record-setting run this year has fueled concerns about inflation and the impact of higher prices at the pump on spending power of the American consumer. Gas prices will take on even more importance now that the summer driving season has begun and the hurricane season is on the horizon.
Oil's recent retreat from highs came amid concerns that increased surveillance of oil markets by federal regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could shake some speculators out of the market.
"Key is whether the pull-back in oil that appears to have started over the past few days will continue over the weeks ahead," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut. "A combination of factors is helping stocks lately: one is the pull-back in oil prices and the other is the money flowing out of the bond market, which had previously been a safe haven out of equities." The exodus out of bonds gained momentum this week, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note suffering its biggest sell-off in five weeks.
Apart from the jobs number, there are also a couple of Institute for Supply Management reports, one on factory activity and the other on the services sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the U.S. economy.
In a Reuters poll of economists, the median forecast is for a May payroll drop of 55,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. In April, the economy shed 20,000 jobs.
The ISM manufacturing index, due on Monday, is expected to fall to 48.5 in May, from 48.6 in April. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The non-manufacturing index, due on Wednesday, is expected to fall to 50.7 in May from 50.9 in April. Other data points include April construction spending on Monday, April factory orders on Tuesday, the May ADP employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
John
By Reuters 01 June 2008
If the jobs report and other economic releases confirm the past week's decent numbers and if oil doesn't throw a wrench in the works, stocks could start June on a strong note. If that is the case, investors could shift more of their money from bonds back into stocks as confidence grows, analysts said.
Economic data this past week added to evidence that the United States may stave off recession. The Commerce Department said on Thursday the U.S. economy grew faster than initially measured in the first quarter as demand for foreign goods fell and commercial building picked up. The robust data helped the market rebound conomic data this past week added to evidence that the United States may stave off recession.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday the U.S. economy grew faster than initially measured in the first quarter as demand for foreign goods fell and commercial building picked up.
The robust data helped the market rebound
The Dow gained 1.3 percent and the S&P rose 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq was the outperformer of the week, climbing 3.2 percent.
Next week brings a heavy load of economic numbers for investors to consider, with Friday's jobs report the one that will garner the most attention. "The May employment report will give us a clear indication on the impact on the economy from higher oil prices and credit conditions," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, New York. The direction of stocks has inversely tracked the price of oil recently, with a retreat in crude this week playing a big part in the market's gains. Oil's record-setting run this year has fueled concerns about inflation and the impact of higher prices at the pump on spending power of the American consumer. Gas prices will take on even more importance now that the summer driving season has begun and the hurricane season is on the horizon.
Oil's recent retreat from highs came amid concerns that increased surveillance of oil markets by federal regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could shake some speculators out of the market.
"Key is whether the pull-back in oil that appears to have started over the past few days will continue over the weeks ahead," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut. "A combination of factors is helping stocks lately: one is the pull-back in oil prices and the other is the money flowing out of the bond market, which had previously been a safe haven out of equities." The exodus out of bonds gained momentum this week, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note suffering its biggest sell-off in five weeks.
Apart from the jobs number, there are also a couple of Institute for Supply Management reports, one on factory activity and the other on the services sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the U.S. economy.
In a Reuters poll of economists, the median forecast is for a May payroll drop of 55,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. In April, the economy shed 20,000 jobs.
The ISM manufacturing index, due on Monday, is expected to fall to 48.5 in May, from 48.6 in April. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The non-manufacturing index, due on Wednesday, is expected to fall to 50.7 in May from 50.9 in April. Other data points include April construction spending on Monday, April factory orders on Tuesday, the May ADP employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
New home sales have yet to show signs of recovery and even continued in free fall in the latest report with March sales dropping 8.5 percent from February to an annual rate of 526,000 -- the lowest rate since 1991. The year-on-year decline of 36.6 percent was the worst since 1981. The big problem is still inventory overhang as months of supply jumped to 11.0 months from 10.2 months in February for the most bloated reading since 1981. The excess supply on the market has pushed down prices, which plunged 6.8 percent in the latest month for a 13.3 percent year-on-year decrease -- the steepest decline since 1970.
New home sales Consensus Forecast for April 08: 522 thousand-unit annual rate
Range: 500 thousand to 560 thousand-unit annual rate
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/new_home_sales/year/2008/yearly/05/index.html
New home sales Consensus Forecast for April 08: 522 thousand-unit annual rate
Range: 500 thousand to 560 thousand-unit annual rate
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/new_home_sales/year/2008/yearly/05/index.html
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index has been quite gloomy lately as this index fell nearly 4 points in April to 62.3 -- the worst reading since the early 1990s. The present situation component, which makes up 40 percent of the headline index, fell more than 10 points to 80.7 for its worst reading since 2003 when the unemployment rate had peaked at 6.3 percent. But the worst news in the report was a spike in inflation expectations, which were up 7 tenths for the month to 6.8 percent -- a record level matched only after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Unless consumer confidence picks up, the rebound that many economists have been predicting for the second half may be rather flat.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for May 08: 60.0
Range: 58.0 to 62.5
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports...mer_confidence/year/2008/yearly/05/index.html
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for May 08: 60.0
Range: 58.0 to 62.5
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports...mer_confidence/year/2008/yearly/05/index.html
Gaetaone
Member
I'm always looking for information on the week ahead and what the best guess is on economic reports. This is one of the better articles I've seen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080525/wall_street_week_ahead.html
Investors will return from holiday with same fears
Sunday May 25, 6:45 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Amid oil price anxiety, investors parse housing, spending, manufacturing data this week
The three-day weekend probably didn't bring much relaxation to investors if they stopped at a gas station on the way to the beach or a barbeque.
With the average roadside price of gasoline pushing $3.88 a gallon -- and going for well over $4 at filling stations in some parts of the country -- energy prices have become a prime worry in the stock market.
That's not to say other concerns have dissipated. As Wall Street heads into this shortened week, it remains anxious about the still-slumping housing market, not to mention the ailing financial services sector. But so much of the economy's performance later in the year will depend on energy costs, so the focus will be on crude until investors see a substantial price retreat.
What's particularly troubling about oil's rise is that everyone knows it will affect the economy, but no one is sure exactly how. Experts are split over whether it will cause broad-based inflation, further economic weakness, or both at the same time.
None of these scenarios are good ones. And the fact that the Federal Reserve says its monetary policy will likely remain on hold until it's clear which situation plays out was a big reason the stock market did so poorly last week. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.91 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.47 percent and the Nasdaq composite index declined 3.33 percent.
To be sure, expensive oil isn't necessarily destructive in the long term. If the economy holds up, U.S. consumers may be able to gradually adapt their behavior and spending -- a trend that could end up actually controlling inflation.
"There are definitely signs that the high price of crude is destroying demand bit by bit," said Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "At this point, we're seeing an economy that is experiencing a headwind from the high price of crude, which at the end of the day could act as a natural regulator of the economy."
But among stock investors right now, "inflation fears have been trumping relatively benign growth numbers," he said.
This four-day week will bring a variety of economic readings on the housing market, consumer spending, business spending, and manufacturing.
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases its April data on new home sales, expected to show a decline from March sales, according to economists surveyed Friday by Thomson Financial/IFR. Also Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May is anticipated to edge lower, too.
Wednesday, the Commerce Department reports on orders for durable goods, which are essentially big-ticket items ranging from cars to refrigerators to computers. April's durable goods orders are expected to have dipped by 1.1 percent after rising by 0.1 percent in March.
Then Friday, on top of data from Chicago purchasing managers on manufacturing and from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, the Commerce Department will report on personal spending. Economists predict spending rose 0.2 percent in April, compared with a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. That report will include the closely watched personal consumption expenditures deflator, which is a measure of inflation at the personal level. Economists, on average, expect that it was steady in April at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
Investors should get an additional sense of how consumers are spending their money in earnings reports this week from Borders Group Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp., Dell Inc., Sears Holdings Corp. and Tiffany & Co.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080525/wall_street_week_ahead.html
Investors will return from holiday with same fears
Sunday May 25, 6:45 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Amid oil price anxiety, investors parse housing, spending, manufacturing data this week
The three-day weekend probably didn't bring much relaxation to investors if they stopped at a gas station on the way to the beach or a barbeque.
With the average roadside price of gasoline pushing $3.88 a gallon -- and going for well over $4 at filling stations in some parts of the country -- energy prices have become a prime worry in the stock market.
That's not to say other concerns have dissipated. As Wall Street heads into this shortened week, it remains anxious about the still-slumping housing market, not to mention the ailing financial services sector. But so much of the economy's performance later in the year will depend on energy costs, so the focus will be on crude until investors see a substantial price retreat.
What's particularly troubling about oil's rise is that everyone knows it will affect the economy, but no one is sure exactly how. Experts are split over whether it will cause broad-based inflation, further economic weakness, or both at the same time.
None of these scenarios are good ones. And the fact that the Federal Reserve says its monetary policy will likely remain on hold until it's clear which situation plays out was a big reason the stock market did so poorly last week. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.91 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.47 percent and the Nasdaq composite index declined 3.33 percent.
To be sure, expensive oil isn't necessarily destructive in the long term. If the economy holds up, U.S. consumers may be able to gradually adapt their behavior and spending -- a trend that could end up actually controlling inflation.
"There are definitely signs that the high price of crude is destroying demand bit by bit," said Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "At this point, we're seeing an economy that is experiencing a headwind from the high price of crude, which at the end of the day could act as a natural regulator of the economy."
But among stock investors right now, "inflation fears have been trumping relatively benign growth numbers," he said.
This four-day week will bring a variety of economic readings on the housing market, consumer spending, business spending, and manufacturing.
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases its April data on new home sales, expected to show a decline from March sales, according to economists surveyed Friday by Thomson Financial/IFR. Also Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May is anticipated to edge lower, too.
Wednesday, the Commerce Department reports on orders for durable goods, which are essentially big-ticket items ranging from cars to refrigerators to computers. April's durable goods orders are expected to have dipped by 1.1 percent after rising by 0.1 percent in March.
Then Friday, on top of data from Chicago purchasing managers on manufacturing and from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, the Commerce Department will report on personal spending. Economists predict spending rose 0.2 percent in April, compared with a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. That report will include the closely watched personal consumption expenditures deflator, which is a measure of inflation at the personal level. Economists, on average, expect that it was steady in April at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
Investors should get an additional sense of how consumers are spending their money in earnings reports this week from Borders Group Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp., Dell Inc., Sears Holdings Corp. and Tiffany & Co.