JTH
Well-known member
Price Performance
Good morning
I mentioned in my account thread, Post #3690 "Over the last 5 years the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Russell 1000 during the month of December, meaning the S-Fund should outperform the C-Fund."
December ended with the S&P 500 at .71% and the Wilshire 4500 at 2.46% Before I go on, I want everyone to know my outlook on statistics. Trends change, what once worked in one decade may give the opposite results in the next decade. It's just like when you play a single number on a roulette table, your odds are 2.63% you will win, no matter how many times you concurrently play the same number your odds never change, they are 2.63% the 1st time and 2.63% the 50th time. Now off the soap box
The chart below is a 20-year Monthly cost comparison between the Russell 1000 verses the Russell 2000. A green candlestick indicates the Russell 1000 outperformed the Russell 2000. A red candlestick indicates the Russell 2000 outperformed the Russell 1000.
Over the last 20 years, in the month of January, Large caps have outperformed Small caps by a margin of 63% or 12 to 19.
View attachment 21721
While the January statistics imply Large Caps should outperform Small Caps, the trend does not confirm this. Looking at the chart above you may notice that since 2001, the overall trend has reversed, going down, meaning Small caps are gaining the edge against Large caps. Now lets take this and apply it to our TSP using the S&P 500 verses the Wilshire 4500 going back the past 7 years (can't go back any further.)
Over the last 7 years, for the Month of January, the Willshire 4500 has outperformed the S&P 500 by a margin of 71% or 5 to 7.
View attachment 21722
Examining the monthly returns from the TSP.GOV website confirms these results.
For the month of January, the S-Fund outperforms the C-Fund by a margin of 67% or 8 to 12. Another interesting observation, for the month of January, the I-Fund has only outperformed the C&S funds twice over the past 12 years.
View attachment 21723
Good morning
I mentioned in my account thread, Post #3690 "Over the last 5 years the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Russell 1000 during the month of December, meaning the S-Fund should outperform the C-Fund."
December ended with the S&P 500 at .71% and the Wilshire 4500 at 2.46% Before I go on, I want everyone to know my outlook on statistics. Trends change, what once worked in one decade may give the opposite results in the next decade. It's just like when you play a single number on a roulette table, your odds are 2.63% you will win, no matter how many times you concurrently play the same number your odds never change, they are 2.63% the 1st time and 2.63% the 50th time. Now off the soap box
The chart below is a 20-year Monthly cost comparison between the Russell 1000 verses the Russell 2000. A green candlestick indicates the Russell 1000 outperformed the Russell 2000. A red candlestick indicates the Russell 2000 outperformed the Russell 1000.
Over the last 20 years, in the month of January, Large caps have outperformed Small caps by a margin of 63% or 12 to 19.
View attachment 21721
While the January statistics imply Large Caps should outperform Small Caps, the trend does not confirm this. Looking at the chart above you may notice that since 2001, the overall trend has reversed, going down, meaning Small caps are gaining the edge against Large caps. Now lets take this and apply it to our TSP using the S&P 500 verses the Wilshire 4500 going back the past 7 years (can't go back any further.)
Over the last 7 years, for the Month of January, the Willshire 4500 has outperformed the S&P 500 by a margin of 71% or 5 to 7.
View attachment 21722
Examining the monthly returns from the TSP.GOV website confirms these results.
For the month of January, the S-Fund outperforms the C-Fund by a margin of 67% or 8 to 12. Another interesting observation, for the month of January, the I-Fund has only outperformed the C&S funds twice over the past 12 years.
View attachment 21723
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