04/30/13
Stocks rallied yesterday with gains across the board. The Dow gained 106-points and many of the major indices flirted with new highs, and / or breaking through resistance.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0121%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 hit the early April intraday high and backed off a little, but it did make a new closing high. Prior tests of new highs have all resulted in breakouts this year but can the S&P continue higher after being up 6 of the last 7 days, and volume shrinking?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) made a new intraday and closing high 52-week high yesterday, but it is at resistance and a little extended here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index ETF broke through its descending resistance line yesterday, although it is still working on a series of lower highs. As we have talked about before, wedge patterns often break one way, only to fail, reverse, and break out in the opposite direction. That could be what is happening here and that's why I like to see at least 3 closes above a breakout.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 had a good day but it is also struggling to make a new high and may be creating a 2nd lower high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Stocks got some help from the recent pullback in the dollar and that pullback is now testing some support, although the 50-day EMA was broken again yesterday. The 200-day EMA is down another 0.10 from current levels on the UUP.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Investors have been relying more and more on margin (debt) to purchase stocks. It is starting to hit a point that is near historic levels that might be an indication of an extended market and asset exhausted investors.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
SentimenTrade.com says: "In March, margin debt marched higher yet again, by more than $13 billion. Free credit, on the other hand, shrank by more than $8 billion. Free credit is the amount of "cash" that is available for investors to withdraw from their accounts.
"Taken together, that means that investors' available cash (free credits minus margin debt) was reduced by approximately $22 billion.
"That available cash figure now stands at negative $92.2 billion. The only time period in history that exceeds this amount were the months between December 1999 through September 2000.
"The other two times in recent history that the balance exceeded negative $75 billion, June 2007 and March 2011, both preceded major corrections."
This is a busy week for stocks with plenty of catalysts to move the market. Earnings reports continue to pour in, there is an FOMC meeting, and we end the week with the April jobs report.
Estimates for the jobs report are in the neighborhood of a gain of 155,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 7.6%. Remember, March's report was well below estimates at 88,000 jobs gained, so it is very important that this is seen as a fluke because a second weak report could trigger a stampede for the exit.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yesterday with gains across the board. The Dow gained 106-points and many of the major indices flirted with new highs, and / or breaking through resistance.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0121%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 hit the early April intraday high and backed off a little, but it did make a new closing high. Prior tests of new highs have all resulted in breakouts this year but can the S&P continue higher after being up 6 of the last 7 days, and volume shrinking?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) made a new intraday and closing high 52-week high yesterday, but it is at resistance and a little extended here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index ETF broke through its descending resistance line yesterday, although it is still working on a series of lower highs. As we have talked about before, wedge patterns often break one way, only to fail, reverse, and break out in the opposite direction. That could be what is happening here and that's why I like to see at least 3 closes above a breakout.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 had a good day but it is also struggling to make a new high and may be creating a 2nd lower high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Stocks got some help from the recent pullback in the dollar and that pullback is now testing some support, although the 50-day EMA was broken again yesterday. The 200-day EMA is down another 0.10 from current levels on the UUP.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Investors have been relying more and more on margin (debt) to purchase stocks. It is starting to hit a point that is near historic levels that might be an indication of an extended market and asset exhausted investors.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
SentimenTrade.com says: "In March, margin debt marched higher yet again, by more than $13 billion. Free credit, on the other hand, shrank by more than $8 billion. Free credit is the amount of "cash" that is available for investors to withdraw from their accounts.
"Taken together, that means that investors' available cash (free credits minus margin debt) was reduced by approximately $22 billion.
"That available cash figure now stands at negative $92.2 billion. The only time period in history that exceeds this amount were the months between December 1999 through September 2000.
"The other two times in recent history that the balance exceeded negative $75 billion, June 2007 and March 2011, both preceded major corrections."
This is a busy week for stocks with plenty of catalysts to move the market. Earnings reports continue to pour in, there is an FOMC meeting, and we end the week with the April jobs report.
Estimates for the jobs report are in the neighborhood of a gain of 155,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 7.6%. Remember, March's report was well below estimates at 88,000 jobs gained, so it is very important that this is seen as a fluke because a second weak report could trigger a stampede for the exit.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
