11/08/11
Stocks bounced around yesterday, rallying early, falling through lunch, rallying again during afternoon trading, and finishing strongly. The Dow gained 85-points on the day.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.64% yesterday, the S-fund slipped 0.14%, the I-fund gained 0.42%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.12%.
The market continues to surprise on the upside despite the turmoil in Europe, which is changing its focus from Greece to Italy.
Although the chart looks bullish to me, I do see some minor problems forming, especially if we don't see an imminent move above the recent 3-day highs (near 1260-1265) since flat tops tend to precede pullbacks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's rally was on the lightest volume since July, for whatever reason. It seems investors are nervous but rather than sell, they are just sitting back and waiting for something to give.
As you can see below, we have a plethora of short and longer term support and resistance lines crisscrossing in the 1250-1275 area, so something is going to give in the coming days and weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I am watching the 200 and 50-day EMA's carefully, as well as the the two rising trading channels. One has current support at 1250, and the other (blue) is down near 1225, right near the 50-day EMA, but for that to get hit we'd have to see the 200-day EMA get taken out.
If seasonality plays a role, November would be smooth sailing while any pullback would seemingly show up a week or two before the pre-holiday trading begins. But of course seasonality is not a primary indicator and it's rarely that easy.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
With earnings season over and the jobs report behind us, the European crisis, as well as our own debt issues, will be front and center, and I am wondering how much of that is already priced into the market. Would anything surprise you at this point? I don't think so. The recent 20% correction may have already addressed the worst case scenarios.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks bounced around yesterday, rallying early, falling through lunch, rallying again during afternoon trading, and finishing strongly. The Dow gained 85-points on the day.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.64% yesterday, the S-fund slipped 0.14%, the I-fund gained 0.42%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.12%.
The market continues to surprise on the upside despite the turmoil in Europe, which is changing its focus from Greece to Italy.
Although the chart looks bullish to me, I do see some minor problems forming, especially if we don't see an imminent move above the recent 3-day highs (near 1260-1265) since flat tops tend to precede pullbacks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's rally was on the lightest volume since July, for whatever reason. It seems investors are nervous but rather than sell, they are just sitting back and waiting for something to give.
As you can see below, we have a plethora of short and longer term support and resistance lines crisscrossing in the 1250-1275 area, so something is going to give in the coming days and weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I am watching the 200 and 50-day EMA's carefully, as well as the the two rising trading channels. One has current support at 1250, and the other (blue) is down near 1225, right near the 50-day EMA, but for that to get hit we'd have to see the 200-day EMA get taken out.
If seasonality plays a role, November would be smooth sailing while any pullback would seemingly show up a week or two before the pre-holiday trading begins. But of course seasonality is not a primary indicator and it's rarely that easy.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
With earnings season over and the jobs report behind us, the European crisis, as well as our own debt issues, will be front and center, and I am wondering how much of that is already priced into the market. Would anything surprise you at this point? I don't think so. The recent 20% correction may have already addressed the worst case scenarios.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
