07/31/25
Stocks were up for most of the day on Wednesday before the FOMC announced their policy statement and it wasn't until Powell started his press conference that stocks started to stumble. Finally, there was a late rally into the close pushing the S&P closer to break even and the Nasdaq moved back into positive territory. It was as if word had gotten out that Microsoft and Meta earnings were going to be good, which they were, and both stocks and the futures were up sharply after hours. Yields were up and the dollar rallied again.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The market's initial reaction to the policy statement was muted, but Powell's press conference had a hawkish tone to it as he did not hint at a cut for September, and stocks reacted negatively. Can you find where Powell got a little hawkish on rates on this intraday chart?
However, in that final half hour of trading, investors seemed to be looking past Powell and toward Microsoft and Meta, which reported earnings and did not disappoint after the bell. The two tech behemoths will be a major impact on the big cap indices today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up 0.750% and 1.05% respectively as of this writing Wednesday evening. That impact will likely roll into Thursday's open but as the day wears on we'll find out whether the gains hold or not which may tell us a lot about investors appetite for risk heading into August, one of the worst months of the year historically. Could we see some late profit taking, or do any early gains hold? Will the broader market move up in sympathy or will it only impact big tech, because the Russell 2000 futures were actually down on Wednesday night.
It has been a very busy week and there's still more to come.
Apple and Amazon report earnings after the close today so we'll see if they confirm the success of the other two Magnificent 7 companies, or if they negate the gains by disappointing.
While we're at it, here are the economic reports due out today and tomorrow.
The PCE Prices data for June is a big one as it is the Fed's key inflation indicator.
Estimates for the June PCE is +0.3% after May's 0.1% gain. The PCE Prices Core is also expected to be +0.3%.
Then we will get the July jobs report on Friday morning, as well as a Consumer Sentiment report.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down slightly after battling back in the final half hour of trading. No harm done technically although it did create a lower high / lower low day.
Yields were up yesterday as that 200-day average has held again, at least for now.
And the dollar continued its post EU trade deal rally as it closed above its 200-day average for the first time since the tariff tantrum in early April.
Despite the rally in the dollar, the price of oil popped over $70 a barrel for the first time since the military action in Iran / Israel. I'm still looking at 72.50 as a possible area of resistance.
The market leading Dow Transportation Index took a tumble yesterday, and bullish tech stocks Microsoft and Meta may not help this index recover. While it did break below some rising support (red line) it is looking for support at the 50-day average, which has been holding since May.
Admin Note: I have an out of town family wedding this weekend so I will be traveling on Friday and Monday, which may impact Monday and Tuesday's commentaries. At the very least I may have to make them brief. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The DWCPF / S-fund closed lower yesterday and right in the middle of the days' high and low creating another spinning top. These are indecision formations and a change in direction may be coming, but with the index moving sideways for the last week or two, just leaving the area - in either direction - I suppose could be considered a change in direction. That double dose of support held during Wednesday's intraday sell off. Despite the overnight gain in big tech last night, the small caps futures were actually down in Wednesday night trading.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit with the dollar just ripping higher in recent days. The 60.50 was one level of support and it was nearly tested, and the 50-day average is near 60, and that may be coming if the dollar doesn't slow down.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back after Tuesday's big gain but it remains in a wedge formation just below the late June highs. With the 10-year yield finding support this week, that wedge formation could mean another dip down to test the 50-day average for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were up for most of the day on Wednesday before the FOMC announced their policy statement and it wasn't until Powell started his press conference that stocks started to stumble. Finally, there was a late rally into the close pushing the S&P closer to break even and the Nasdaq moved back into positive territory. It was as if word had gotten out that Microsoft and Meta earnings were going to be good, which they were, and both stocks and the futures were up sharply after hours. Yields were up and the dollar rallied again.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The market's initial reaction to the policy statement was muted, but Powell's press conference had a hawkish tone to it as he did not hint at a cut for September, and stocks reacted negatively. Can you find where Powell got a little hawkish on rates on this intraday chart?
However, in that final half hour of trading, investors seemed to be looking past Powell and toward Microsoft and Meta, which reported earnings and did not disappoint after the bell. The two tech behemoths will be a major impact on the big cap indices today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up 0.750% and 1.05% respectively as of this writing Wednesday evening. That impact will likely roll into Thursday's open but as the day wears on we'll find out whether the gains hold or not which may tell us a lot about investors appetite for risk heading into August, one of the worst months of the year historically. Could we see some late profit taking, or do any early gains hold? Will the broader market move up in sympathy or will it only impact big tech, because the Russell 2000 futures were actually down on Wednesday night.
It has been a very busy week and there's still more to come.
Apple and Amazon report earnings after the close today so we'll see if they confirm the success of the other two Magnificent 7 companies, or if they negate the gains by disappointing.
While we're at it, here are the economic reports due out today and tomorrow.
The PCE Prices data for June is a big one as it is the Fed's key inflation indicator.
Estimates for the June PCE is +0.3% after May's 0.1% gain. The PCE Prices Core is also expected to be +0.3%.
Then we will get the July jobs report on Friday morning, as well as a Consumer Sentiment report.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down slightly after battling back in the final half hour of trading. No harm done technically although it did create a lower high / lower low day.
Yields were up yesterday as that 200-day average has held again, at least for now.
And the dollar continued its post EU trade deal rally as it closed above its 200-day average for the first time since the tariff tantrum in early April.
Despite the rally in the dollar, the price of oil popped over $70 a barrel for the first time since the military action in Iran / Israel. I'm still looking at 72.50 as a possible area of resistance.
The market leading Dow Transportation Index took a tumble yesterday, and bullish tech stocks Microsoft and Meta may not help this index recover. While it did break below some rising support (red line) it is looking for support at the 50-day average, which has been holding since May.
Admin Note: I have an out of town family wedding this weekend so I will be traveling on Friday and Monday, which may impact Monday and Tuesday's commentaries. At the very least I may have to make them brief. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The DWCPF / S-fund closed lower yesterday and right in the middle of the days' high and low creating another spinning top. These are indecision formations and a change in direction may be coming, but with the index moving sideways for the last week or two, just leaving the area - in either direction - I suppose could be considered a change in direction. That double dose of support held during Wednesday's intraday sell off. Despite the overnight gain in big tech last night, the small caps futures were actually down in Wednesday night trading.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit with the dollar just ripping higher in recent days. The 60.50 was one level of support and it was nearly tested, and the 50-day average is near 60, and that may be coming if the dollar doesn't slow down.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back after Tuesday's big gain but it remains in a wedge formation just below the late June highs. With the 10-year yield finding support this week, that wedge formation could mean another dip down to test the 50-day average for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
