09/25/25
More moderate selling yesterday as the indices backed off from their highs and the upper resistance on the charts. It's a been a quiet week for economic data and investors may be looking toward tomorrow's inflation data in the PCE Prices report, and / or next week's monthly jobs report. Yields and the dollar were up adding pressure to the equity markets.
The indices were down for a second straight day, teasing the bears who have been waiting for some kind of meaningful pullback. We still have not had a 3% pullback in the S&P 500 since the lows in April, and that's unusual, although not unheard of. We have also gone 36 trading sessions without a 1% daily decline. That the longest stretch in over a year.
With four trading days left in September and a gain of 2.8% for the month, the S&P 500 is on pace to have its 5th straight positive month. According to Ryan Detrick, historically the following 12 month return was positive 28 out of 30 times. Granted, stocks are up each year much more often then they are down, but that would suggest the next 12 months have a 93% chance of being positive - if September stays positive.
Ryan also said, when the S&P 500 makes a new all time high in September, the 4th quarter is up 90% of the time.
The reason this data is interesting is because of all the calls for a market correction or even a crash. I just want to see a buying pullback. :^)
Of course there are always exceptions and we only have to go back to 2018 to see a big exception. The S&P experienced a 20% decline in the 4th quarter that year after new highs in September.
It was the small caps that got hit again yesterday. The DWCPF (S-fund) is volatile and every time you see it get hot, you want to get in it, but it tends to be the one that gets smacked the hardest when it does fall. The negative reversal on Turnaround Tuesday looked a little serious, but this fund is still trending higher, and unless or until this falls below some support levels, it is likely going to lure in dip buyers.
Despite the losses, the action has been on the quiet side since the FOMC interest rate cut. I'm looking for clues as to whether this is a buyable dip, or the start something a little more serious as we head into the most volatile part of the year. So far, the dip buyers and the buy and holders have been the winners. It would be nice to join them as I only have a moderate position in stocks right now and I'm feeling underinvested. However the last thing I want to do is buy a small dip and have it turn out to be the first 3% plus decline since April.
We get the PCE Prices data, as well as the Personal Income and Spending reports tomorrow.
The S&P 500 / C-fund hit the top of the large red trading channel and has dipped a bit. That is certainly not a red flag yet. Even the shorter term narrow blue channel is still technically intact. A move to 6600 or the 20-day EMA would make things interesting as support gets rather thin below that.
ACWX (I-fund) has failed twice above 65 and has room to move lower within its ascending channel. The rally in the dollar yesterday may be catching folks by surprise as many continue to call for its demise, or at least a continued slide lower. The I-fund struggles when the dollar is moving up.
That open gap on the UUP chart near 27.80 could be what it is trying to fill. From there, we may be able to figure out which way it wants to trend next. It's been about three months since it made its low.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again with yields moving up. We have a chart sitting below resistance with a large open gap below. I don't like the short-term prospects but a weak inflation report (low inflation) tomorrow could send it higher.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
More moderate selling yesterday as the indices backed off from their highs and the upper resistance on the charts. It's a been a quiet week for economic data and investors may be looking toward tomorrow's inflation data in the PCE Prices report, and / or next week's monthly jobs report. Yields and the dollar were up adding pressure to the equity markets.
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The indices were down for a second straight day, teasing the bears who have been waiting for some kind of meaningful pullback. We still have not had a 3% pullback in the S&P 500 since the lows in April, and that's unusual, although not unheard of. We have also gone 36 trading sessions without a 1% daily decline. That the longest stretch in over a year.
With four trading days left in September and a gain of 2.8% for the month, the S&P 500 is on pace to have its 5th straight positive month. According to Ryan Detrick, historically the following 12 month return was positive 28 out of 30 times. Granted, stocks are up each year much more often then they are down, but that would suggest the next 12 months have a 93% chance of being positive - if September stays positive.
Ryan also said, when the S&P 500 makes a new all time high in September, the 4th quarter is up 90% of the time.
The reason this data is interesting is because of all the calls for a market correction or even a crash. I just want to see a buying pullback. :^)
Of course there are always exceptions and we only have to go back to 2018 to see a big exception. The S&P experienced a 20% decline in the 4th quarter that year after new highs in September.
It was the small caps that got hit again yesterday. The DWCPF (S-fund) is volatile and every time you see it get hot, you want to get in it, but it tends to be the one that gets smacked the hardest when it does fall. The negative reversal on Turnaround Tuesday looked a little serious, but this fund is still trending higher, and unless or until this falls below some support levels, it is likely going to lure in dip buyers.
Despite the losses, the action has been on the quiet side since the FOMC interest rate cut. I'm looking for clues as to whether this is a buyable dip, or the start something a little more serious as we head into the most volatile part of the year. So far, the dip buyers and the buy and holders have been the winners. It would be nice to join them as I only have a moderate position in stocks right now and I'm feeling underinvested. However the last thing I want to do is buy a small dip and have it turn out to be the first 3% plus decline since April.
We get the PCE Prices data, as well as the Personal Income and Spending reports tomorrow.
The S&P 500 / C-fund hit the top of the large red trading channel and has dipped a bit. That is certainly not a red flag yet. Even the shorter term narrow blue channel is still technically intact. A move to 6600 or the 20-day EMA would make things interesting as support gets rather thin below that.
ACWX (I-fund) has failed twice above 65 and has room to move lower within its ascending channel. The rally in the dollar yesterday may be catching folks by surprise as many continue to call for its demise, or at least a continued slide lower. The I-fund struggles when the dollar is moving up.
That open gap on the UUP chart near 27.80 could be what it is trying to fill. From there, we may be able to figure out which way it wants to trend next. It's been about three months since it made its low.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again with yields moving up. We have a chart sitting below resistance with a large open gap below. I don't like the short-term prospects but a weak inflation report (low inflation) tomorrow could send it higher.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
