03/03/26
March came in like a lion for the stock market as stocks opened sharply lower following a weekend of bombings in and around Iran, but the opening price was actually the low of the day as buyers stepped up immediately. The price of oil rallied and jump again late after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Yields and the dollar moved higher as well. Small caps led with a impressive gain, while the I-fund took a hit with the dollar rallying and the volatility in the Middle East. By the close the major indices were basically flat with support holding, so not much has changed.
When emotions are high you are going to see volatility, but rather than panicking at the opening bell after the futures were down about 2% overnight, the bulls took advantage and worked on the rotational play into the small companies again. The S-fund posted a big gain, despite the turmoil.
That helped the NYSE see more stocks up than down, and a positive new highs vs. new lows ratio, while the tech heavy Nasdaq actually saw more 52-week lows yesterday, than highs - most of those lows coming in the first few minutes of trading, however.
Here's the QQQ, which is an ETF tracking the large cap tech Nasdaq 100 Index. It managed a small gain after reversing some steep early losses, but you can see that the purple moving average came into play again as resistance, and that's just an ugly bear flag so it has some work to do today.
Yields were up yesterday and the 10-year is back above 4%, so bonds were not the safety trade (bonds move counter to yields.) Stronger than expected ISM Manufacturing data helped moved those yields higher.
The dollar was up sharply, and as you'll see in the TSP fund chart section below, that left a mark on the I-fund as it did not recapture its early losses like the C and S funds.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) opened lower but within a couple of minutes the lows of the day were in, and once again that purple moving average held on the downside. It is still below the green 30-day average, and while it hasn't strayed far, it has closed below that average in 11 of the last 12 trading days. So we have some issues, support continues to hold, and the long trading range remains intact. How tight is the range? The S&P 500 has touched 6900 in more than 40% of this year's trading days.
I mentioned yesterday that we could see a quick snap back rally from a knee-jerk sell off yesterday, and that happened, but the indices are not out of the woods yet. The charts still have some issues.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) opened on the lower moving average yesterday, which has been solid support. It held again, and raced toward the converging overhead resistance lines near 2600, which will be another key test for this index. Plus it is in a bearish head and shoulder pattern until it can prove otherwise. While traders are taking advantage of these ranges, money managers are likely waiting for confirmation of a breakout from the range.
ACWX (I-fund) got smacked yesterday and finally broke below that blue rising trading channel. It did find support just below 73, which was a key hold, otherwise 71 could immediately been in the picture. After that, support is closer to 67 (not shown) so we'll just have to see if the folks who have been missing this rally take advantage of yesterday's weakness.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was hit hard with yields spiking and the ascending support line broke, but its angle of incline was too steep to continue too much longer. There is now an overhead open gap just below 75. This was getting too stretched to buy, but a pullback would give us some options.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
March came in like a lion for the stock market as stocks opened sharply lower following a weekend of bombings in and around Iran, but the opening price was actually the low of the day as buyers stepped up immediately. The price of oil rallied and jump again late after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Yields and the dollar moved higher as well. Small caps led with a impressive gain, while the I-fund took a hit with the dollar rallying and the volatility in the Middle East. By the close the major indices were basically flat with support holding, so not much has changed.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
When emotions are high you are going to see volatility, but rather than panicking at the opening bell after the futures were down about 2% overnight, the bulls took advantage and worked on the rotational play into the small companies again. The S-fund posted a big gain, despite the turmoil.
That helped the NYSE see more stocks up than down, and a positive new highs vs. new lows ratio, while the tech heavy Nasdaq actually saw more 52-week lows yesterday, than highs - most of those lows coming in the first few minutes of trading, however.
Here's the QQQ, which is an ETF tracking the large cap tech Nasdaq 100 Index. It managed a small gain after reversing some steep early losses, but you can see that the purple moving average came into play again as resistance, and that's just an ugly bear flag so it has some work to do today.
Yields were up yesterday and the 10-year is back above 4%, so bonds were not the safety trade (bonds move counter to yields.) Stronger than expected ISM Manufacturing data helped moved those yields higher.
The dollar was up sharply, and as you'll see in the TSP fund chart section below, that left a mark on the I-fund as it did not recapture its early losses like the C and S funds.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) opened lower but within a couple of minutes the lows of the day were in, and once again that purple moving average held on the downside. It is still below the green 30-day average, and while it hasn't strayed far, it has closed below that average in 11 of the last 12 trading days. So we have some issues, support continues to hold, and the long trading range remains intact. How tight is the range? The S&P 500 has touched 6900 in more than 40% of this year's trading days.
I mentioned yesterday that we could see a quick snap back rally from a knee-jerk sell off yesterday, and that happened, but the indices are not out of the woods yet. The charts still have some issues.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) opened on the lower moving average yesterday, which has been solid support. It held again, and raced toward the converging overhead resistance lines near 2600, which will be another key test for this index. Plus it is in a bearish head and shoulder pattern until it can prove otherwise. While traders are taking advantage of these ranges, money managers are likely waiting for confirmation of a breakout from the range.
ACWX (I-fund) got smacked yesterday and finally broke below that blue rising trading channel. It did find support just below 73, which was a key hold, otherwise 71 could immediately been in the picture. After that, support is closer to 67 (not shown) so we'll just have to see if the folks who have been missing this rally take advantage of yesterday's weakness.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was hit hard with yields spiking and the ascending support line broke, but its angle of incline was too steep to continue too much longer. There is now an overhead open gap just below 75. This was getting too stretched to buy, but a pullback would give us some options.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
