04/08/26
Stocks opened lower on Tuesday after failing at resistance again, but like we have seen in more recent trading days, there has been late buying with the indices trying to close back up near the highs of the day. The indices were mixed but once again this was bullish action. After the bell last night we did get word of a ceasefire.
Knowing that the stock market could react violent - either up or down - to the outcome of the latest ceasefire ultimatum from President Trump, made it difficult to know what to do yesterday.
Pakistan jumped into the fray and requested a two week pause in the escalation of attacks, and for the Iranians to reopen the Strait.
I had already written most of this report after the close on Tuesday so there may be some odd statements because Trump did announce a two week ceasefire a few hours after the closing bell yesterday and the futures opened up sharply higher and oil fell. This is all contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, so...
The charts were sitting near key pivot points, and the direction of the next big move was still up in the air, but Tuesday night's headline changed things and we may have a repeat of 2025 on our hands where investors are underinvested, and that can make the relief rally that much more powerful.
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF / C-fund) was in the same position that it has been in for the last four trading days, which is just underneath the 200-day moving average. Generally, if charts knock on the overhead resistance door enough times without the bears pushing back too hard, someone will eventually open that door. Translation: The chart looks like it is trying to tell us that the outcome of this Iranian war will be favorable, but it could still fail here at resistance again and go back to test the prior lows. Update: The breakout looks inevitable after the ceasefire news.
The PMO Indicator moved above the moving average and that's usually a positive for the intermediate-term, although it can be a very short-term overbought sign. Churning below resistance could alleviate that overbought condition.
Oil was up, then down yesterday, and that qualifies it for a negative reversal day. It looked "peaky" after yesterday but again, we're a headline away from a big move in either direction. Update: Oil was down about $18 a barrel after the ceasefire announcement.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up slightly again, but it too had a negative reversal bias yesterday. Update: The 10-year was trading down to 4.30% after hours trading yesterday.
Meanwhile the dollar pulled back to fill in an open gap, and there are others well down below the current level.
The market leading Dow Transportation Index just keeps on plowing ahead despite the headwinds from oil prices and a possible economic slowdown. This could be the bullish canary in the coalmine. Update: It was moving in the right direction - according to the latest overnight trading.
I like the action but too much uncertainty to feel confident about anything. Update: There is a little more short term certainty with the ceasefire, but nothing longer term is concrete.
There's a lot of economic data coming out in the next few days, but all eyes are on the ceasefire deal.
Admin Note: From tsp.gov: "Scheduled System Maintenance: Due to scheduled system maintenance, My Account will be unavailable Saturday, April 11, from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern time. Thank you for your patience while we work to improve your TSP experience."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) ended the day flat, which was bullish in my book after another intraday breakdown below the 200-day average. The formation looks good, but this is also the place where a bear market rally would run out of steam, so nothing has been resolved yet. A move above 2525 that holds for a few days will be much more convincing. Update: We could see more resistance taken out if the futures' gains hold into Wednesday's trading day.
ACWX (I-fund) came back to close near the flat line, although the I-fund's price is not always in sync with this on a day to day basis, and the late rally could mean the TSP did not give the I-fund the price it deserved. However, if that's the case, that will be adjusted by them. It hasn't been posted as of this writing. Update: There will be a lot of adjusting and the overseas market should be up big on Wednesday with oil falling.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a good day and the chart is now back above that support line, after what could have been a false breakdown on Monday. This chart looks a lot like the pattern we're seeing the stock charts where a big rebound is testing resistance. Update: Yields are falling and this chart could make a run to the top of the wedge before long.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened lower on Tuesday after failing at resistance again, but like we have seen in more recent trading days, there has been late buying with the indices trying to close back up near the highs of the day. The indices were mixed but once again this was bullish action. After the bell last night we did get word of a ceasefire.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Knowing that the stock market could react violent - either up or down - to the outcome of the latest ceasefire ultimatum from President Trump, made it difficult to know what to do yesterday.
Pakistan jumped into the fray and requested a two week pause in the escalation of attacks, and for the Iranians to reopen the Strait.
I had already written most of this report after the close on Tuesday so there may be some odd statements because Trump did announce a two week ceasefire a few hours after the closing bell yesterday and the futures opened up sharply higher and oil fell. This is all contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, so...
The charts were sitting near key pivot points, and the direction of the next big move was still up in the air, but Tuesday night's headline changed things and we may have a repeat of 2025 on our hands where investors are underinvested, and that can make the relief rally that much more powerful.
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF / C-fund) was in the same position that it has been in for the last four trading days, which is just underneath the 200-day moving average. Generally, if charts knock on the overhead resistance door enough times without the bears pushing back too hard, someone will eventually open that door. Translation: The chart looks like it is trying to tell us that the outcome of this Iranian war will be favorable, but it could still fail here at resistance again and go back to test the prior lows. Update: The breakout looks inevitable after the ceasefire news.
The PMO Indicator moved above the moving average and that's usually a positive for the intermediate-term, although it can be a very short-term overbought sign. Churning below resistance could alleviate that overbought condition.
Oil was up, then down yesterday, and that qualifies it for a negative reversal day. It looked "peaky" after yesterday but again, we're a headline away from a big move in either direction. Update: Oil was down about $18 a barrel after the ceasefire announcement.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up slightly again, but it too had a negative reversal bias yesterday. Update: The 10-year was trading down to 4.30% after hours trading yesterday.
Meanwhile the dollar pulled back to fill in an open gap, and there are others well down below the current level.
The market leading Dow Transportation Index just keeps on plowing ahead despite the headwinds from oil prices and a possible economic slowdown. This could be the bullish canary in the coalmine. Update: It was moving in the right direction - according to the latest overnight trading.
I like the action but too much uncertainty to feel confident about anything. Update: There is a little more short term certainty with the ceasefire, but nothing longer term is concrete.
There's a lot of economic data coming out in the next few days, but all eyes are on the ceasefire deal.
Admin Note: From tsp.gov: "Scheduled System Maintenance: Due to scheduled system maintenance, My Account will be unavailable Saturday, April 11, from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern time. Thank you for your patience while we work to improve your TSP experience."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) ended the day flat, which was bullish in my book after another intraday breakdown below the 200-day average. The formation looks good, but this is also the place where a bear market rally would run out of steam, so nothing has been resolved yet. A move above 2525 that holds for a few days will be much more convincing. Update: We could see more resistance taken out if the futures' gains hold into Wednesday's trading day.
ACWX (I-fund) came back to close near the flat line, although the I-fund's price is not always in sync with this on a day to day basis, and the late rally could mean the TSP did not give the I-fund the price it deserved. However, if that's the case, that will be adjusted by them. It hasn't been posted as of this writing. Update: There will be a lot of adjusting and the overseas market should be up big on Wednesday with oil falling.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a good day and the chart is now back above that support line, after what could have been a false breakdown on Monday. This chart looks a lot like the pattern we're seeing the stock charts where a big rebound is testing resistance. Update: Yields are falling and this chart could make a run to the top of the wedge before long.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
