06/03/26
Another day, another rally - at least for most of the US indices as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all made new closing highs. The gains weren't large and they were mostly a result of strength in big tech again, but that still pays. However, the S and I-funds also made new highs yesterday so it was interesting trading with half of all stocks actually down on the day. Oil rallied and yields are remaining above support, but that didn't seem to concern investors who are refusing to back down.
That's momentum for you, and it is one of the most powerful forces in the stock market. The market is never "wrong", per se, so it's tough to argue that point, but we are still seeing some less then exciting action under the surface as there were about as many stock down as up yesterday, and despite the S&P 500 being up the last five days, all of those days saw negative breadth (more decliners than advancers) in the index.
The 556 new highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq is impressive, but 206 new 52-week lows is odd in market making new highs virtually every day.
WTIC was up again but the market has seemed to move on from this inverse catalyst. It looks like $100 may be a tough area for the price to overtake again, but $90 held on the down side near that key moving average. Some "experts", or oil executives, are suggesting $140 to $160 oil in the coming weeks because of depleted supplies, but I'm focusing on 90 and 100 right now.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down slightly yesterday but it is holding above 4.4%, an area that has plenty of support.
If yields and oil remain in this area it wouldn't be the worst thing, but moving higher would likely mean more stock price adjustments - more so from the ones we don't read about every day.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to climb and it is now 800 points above its 200-day moving average. That doesn't mean it has to come down today, but it will eventually come down to at least consolidate again at some point. Every rally in the S&P 500 ever recorded, before this one that started in April, eventually came back down to their 200-day average, as well as the other shorter term averages.
The semiconductor sector has been a major catalyst for the rally. In two months it has almost doubled, and it has more than quadrupled since the Tariff Tantrum lows. It crossed above its 200-day average in May of last year.
Let's compare that to when the dot com semiconductor index moved above its 200-day average, where it took about 16 months before it peaked. The current rally has been above its 200-day average for 13-months.
If I were in stocks I would like be riding this wave but I sold some a couple of times over the last several weeks to raise more cash each time, and I just can't get myself to do any buying just yet. Sure, we could see weeks or months of more upside for all we know. But we could also get what we had in 2000, and at the very least some kind of correction or consolidation.
Additional TSP Fund Charts::
DWCPF (S-fund) was not intimidated by the upper resistance line and it plowed right through it to new highs.
ACWX (I-fund) made new highs as well, and again the upper end of the F-flag could have held as resistance, but it did not. Investors are still buying up here. I could see not selling, but still buying?
BND (bonds / F-fund) closed for a third day above the apex of the pennant formation. That impressive but all those closes were very close together so it is basically just not going down, and support is holding. That's good for bonds, but yields are remaining stubbornly high, and that may have to change for this to continue higher.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Another day, another rally - at least for most of the US indices as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all made new closing highs. The gains weren't large and they were mostly a result of strength in big tech again, but that still pays. However, the S and I-funds also made new highs yesterday so it was interesting trading with half of all stocks actually down on the day. Oil rallied and yields are remaining above support, but that didn't seem to concern investors who are refusing to back down.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
That's momentum for you, and it is one of the most powerful forces in the stock market. The market is never "wrong", per se, so it's tough to argue that point, but we are still seeing some less then exciting action under the surface as there were about as many stock down as up yesterday, and despite the S&P 500 being up the last five days, all of those days saw negative breadth (more decliners than advancers) in the index.
The 556 new highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq is impressive, but 206 new 52-week lows is odd in market making new highs virtually every day.
WTIC was up again but the market has seemed to move on from this inverse catalyst. It looks like $100 may be a tough area for the price to overtake again, but $90 held on the down side near that key moving average. Some "experts", or oil executives, are suggesting $140 to $160 oil in the coming weeks because of depleted supplies, but I'm focusing on 90 and 100 right now.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down slightly yesterday but it is holding above 4.4%, an area that has plenty of support.
If yields and oil remain in this area it wouldn't be the worst thing, but moving higher would likely mean more stock price adjustments - more so from the ones we don't read about every day.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to climb and it is now 800 points above its 200-day moving average. That doesn't mean it has to come down today, but it will eventually come down to at least consolidate again at some point. Every rally in the S&P 500 ever recorded, before this one that started in April, eventually came back down to their 200-day average, as well as the other shorter term averages.
The semiconductor sector has been a major catalyst for the rally. In two months it has almost doubled, and it has more than quadrupled since the Tariff Tantrum lows. It crossed above its 200-day average in May of last year.
Let's compare that to when the dot com semiconductor index moved above its 200-day average, where it took about 16 months before it peaked. The current rally has been above its 200-day average for 13-months.
If I were in stocks I would like be riding this wave but I sold some a couple of times over the last several weeks to raise more cash each time, and I just can't get myself to do any buying just yet. Sure, we could see weeks or months of more upside for all we know. But we could also get what we had in 2000, and at the very least some kind of correction or consolidation.
Additional TSP Fund Charts::
DWCPF (S-fund) was not intimidated by the upper resistance line and it plowed right through it to new highs.
ACWX (I-fund) made new highs as well, and again the upper end of the F-flag could have held as resistance, but it did not. Investors are still buying up here. I could see not selling, but still buying?
BND (bonds / F-fund) closed for a third day above the apex of the pennant formation. That impressive but all those closes were very close together so it is basically just not going down, and support is holding. That's good for bonds, but yields are remaining stubbornly high, and that may have to change for this to continue higher.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
