For the month of August, let me preface this by stating (from my viewpoint), August is a lower-middle tier month. It doesn't have impressive statistics on the Monthly, Daily, & MTD time-frames, it just lacks that “wow” factor other months have. I'll go more into detail after the July close, but for now here's a quick overview.
The 1st Day of Aug has the lowest 1st Day of the Month win ratio of all months at 41%. But... of the 26 of 63 times the 1st day closed positive, the month had a reasonable 65% win ratio.
Note: From 1961-2023, our 756 Month win ratio is 60%, this is our baseline average.
On the Monthly scale, across the past 63 years (and sorted into three 21-year increments), we have a snorefesting 57% win ratio. Since we don't know how July will close, I've included both outcomes for Aug when July closes Positive or Negative. The only semi-impressive stat is the 67% win ratio for the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, but this data is limited to 15 years.
IMHO: As we look ahead, August leads into September (duh). Statistically, September is the worst performing month of the year, with a 43% win ratio, and the worst average returns of all months. Thus (in times of uncertainty) August is a good month to decide how to be positioned for September.
Why?
The September low to the Dec close has a 90% win ratio, with an average-of-gains of 9.15%. Not that this is easy, but in theory if we could correctly time the Sep low (historically) we have a 90% chance of a 9.18% gain or a 10% chance of a -11.12% loss.
Below is September's close based on the August close. It may surprise you to know when August closes positive, September's stats are weaker.
Thanks for reading.... Jason
The 1st Day of Aug has the lowest 1st Day of the Month win ratio of all months at 41%. But... of the 26 of 63 times the 1st day closed positive, the month had a reasonable 65% win ratio.
Note: From 1961-2023, our 756 Month win ratio is 60%, this is our baseline average.
On the Monthly scale, across the past 63 years (and sorted into three 21-year increments), we have a snorefesting 57% win ratio. Since we don't know how July will close, I've included both outcomes for Aug when July closes Positive or Negative. The only semi-impressive stat is the 67% win ratio for the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, but this data is limited to 15 years.
IMHO: As we look ahead, August leads into September (duh). Statistically, September is the worst performing month of the year, with a 43% win ratio, and the worst average returns of all months. Thus (in times of uncertainty) August is a good month to decide how to be positioned for September.
Why?
The September low to the Dec close has a 90% win ratio, with an average-of-gains of 9.15%. Not that this is easy, but in theory if we could correctly time the Sep low (historically) we have a 90% chance of a 9.18% gain or a 10% chance of a -11.12% loss.
Below is September's close based on the August close. It may surprise you to know when August closes positive, September's stats are weaker.
Thanks for reading.... Jason
