3/01/13
A strong mid-afternoon rally in the stock market fell apart by the close producing a negative reversal day. The Dow was within just a few points of a new all-time high yesterday when someone pulled the plug and the Dow ended the day down 21-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are final returns for the month of February and the annual returns through Feb 28:
The S&P 500 hit 1525 again yesterday before the reversal occurred and that seems to be an area that has been trouble for the S&P. We did have that one day where it closed above 1525, but the following day it was back under it and that is the immediate area of concern for the index.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Let's take a look at some of the indicators - some of which are giving conflicting indications.
The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator is on the overbought side, but the trend sees the channel declining to lower overbought and oversold readings. If the overhead resistance on the indicator holds, we would likely see sideways to downside action today (Friday.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dumb money of the CBOE put / call ratio is as bearish as it has been since just before the Thanksgiving week bottom. That might sound bullish to us since it is a contrarian indicator, and we were basically at a low during that last 1.00 reading, but the prior two times we saw a 1.00 ratio there were two different outcomes.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
One was near a market peak (April 2012), and one came in the middle of a market pullback (May 2012). Normally the more bearish this number is, the more bullish it is for stocks, but the last 3 1.00 readings tells us we can't be certain what we'll see.
The OEX put / call ratio (not shown) has the smart money getting more bullish, but it is still on the neutral side and not giving any strong indications either way.
sentimenTrader.com shows us that when the S&P 500 is within 1% of a 52-week high, and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not our survey) has a bullish reading of < 30%, the market has a pretty good record going forward.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I took that data and just looked at prior instances when the bullish percentage went below 30% after coming down from being above 40% bullish, and it gives a little more of a negative outlook with all 4 instances since early 2011 being closer to peaks than bottoms.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
A strong mid-afternoon rally in the stock market fell apart by the close producing a negative reversal day. The Dow was within just a few points of a new all-time high yesterday when someone pulled the plug and the Dow ended the day down 21-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are final returns for the month of February and the annual returns through Feb 28:
The S&P 500 hit 1525 again yesterday before the reversal occurred and that seems to be an area that has been trouble for the S&P. We did have that one day where it closed above 1525, but the following day it was back under it and that is the immediate area of concern for the index.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Let's take a look at some of the indicators - some of which are giving conflicting indications.
The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator is on the overbought side, but the trend sees the channel declining to lower overbought and oversold readings. If the overhead resistance on the indicator holds, we would likely see sideways to downside action today (Friday.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dumb money of the CBOE put / call ratio is as bearish as it has been since just before the Thanksgiving week bottom. That might sound bullish to us since it is a contrarian indicator, and we were basically at a low during that last 1.00 reading, but the prior two times we saw a 1.00 ratio there were two different outcomes.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
One was near a market peak (April 2012), and one came in the middle of a market pullback (May 2012). Normally the more bearish this number is, the more bullish it is for stocks, but the last 3 1.00 readings tells us we can't be certain what we'll see.
The OEX put / call ratio (not shown) has the smart money getting more bullish, but it is still on the neutral side and not giving any strong indications either way.
sentimenTrader.com shows us that when the S&P 500 is within 1% of a 52-week high, and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (not our survey) has a bullish reading of < 30%, the market has a pretty good record going forward.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I took that data and just looked at prior instances when the bullish percentage went below 30% after coming down from being above 40% bullish, and it gives a little more of a negative outlook with all 4 instances since early 2011 being closer to peaks than bottoms.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
