Resession vs Depression?

Hey thanks Tom, you know, I kinda feel like a cats been dragging me around after all these market shenanigans.
 
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation

“Here are the definitions:

Recession, Depression and Great Depression. A couple of decades back, I tried to tie down the definitional differences between a recession, depression and a great depression with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a number of private economists. I found that there was no consensus on the matter, so I set some definitions that the various parties (neither formally nor officially) thought were within reason.

If you look at the plot of the level of economic activity during a downturn, you will see something that looks like a bowl, with activity recessing on the downside and recovering on the upside. The term used to describe this bowl-shaped circumstance before World War II was "depression," while the downside portion of the cycle was called "recession." Before World War II, all downturns simply were referred to as depressions. In the wake of the Great Depression of the 1930s, however, a euphemism was sought for future economic contractions so as to avoid evoking memories of that earlier, financially painful time.

Accordingly, a post-World War II downturn was called "recession." Officially, the worst post-World War II recession was from November 1973 through March 1975, with a peak-to-trough contraction of 5%. Such followed the Vietnam War, Nixon’s floating of the U.S. dollar and the Oil Embargo. The double-dip recession in the early-1980s may have seen a combined contraction of roughly 6%. I contend that the current double-dip recession that began in late-2000 already is rivaling the 1980s double-dip as to depth. (See the Reporting/Market Focus of the October 2006 SGS for further detail.) Please note that the definition for "great depression" below has been revised to a contraction in excess of 25% (from 20% stated in the March 16, 2008 newsletter), in order to be consistent with the usage in last year’s Series.

Here are the definitions:

Recession:Two or more consecutive quarters of contracting real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, where the downturn is not triggered by an exogenous factor such as a truckers’ strike. The NBER, which is the official arbiter of when the United States economy is in recession, attempts to refine its timing calls, on a monthly basis, through the use of economic series such as payroll employment and industrial production, and it no longer relies on the two quarters of contracting GDP rule.

Depression:A recession, where the peak-to-trough contraction in real growth exceeds 10%.

Great Depression:A depression, where the peak-to-trough contraction in real growth exceeds 25%.

On the basis of the preceding, there has been the one Great Depression, in the 1930s. Most of the economic contractions before that would be classified as depressions. All business downturns since World War II — as officially reported — have been recessions. Using the somewhat broader "great depression" definition of a contraction in excess of 20% (instead of 25%), the depression of 1837 to 1843 would be considered "great," as technically would be the war-time production shut-down in 1945.”

My fear is hyperinflation, rather than letting market forces correct the excesses, the Feds actions could lead to a situation much worse than a depression. Oldcoin
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w84EiCt0Lqk

Legendary investor Jim Rogers says that we are going into a depression. Rogers found a holding company with George Soros. Over the 10 years that Rogers was co-owner of the company the company's value increased by 5,000% while the S&P only increased by 500%. Guess the dude knows something about economics. Rogers now owns his own company Rogers Holdings. He has sold all his US dollars and moved his family to Singapore. His daughters attend private school where they are learning Chinese. Which he claims is the new language of business. He moved to Singapore because he said that the US is going to crash and he does not want to be here when it happens.

Jason

PS Bloomberg TV by the way broadcasts from the floor of the NYSE in NYC.
 
rawiron1 said:
Hey, when you're paranoid like me you're never alone because you know they are watching. :)

I figure it this way. If I have food, water, ammo, etc. and I am wrong then whooptydo, I have extra food, water, etc. Probably could sell some of it on Ebay. But, if I am right, then that makes me prepaired and others up a poop creak without a paddle. Better safe than sorry.

Now if you will excuse me, I am trying to watch another "sucker ralley" fizzle on Wall Street courtessy of Bloomberg TV. Do you know what a sucker ralley is? Sucker rallies were all the rallies that occured after the 1929 crash until the stock market hit rock bottom in 1932. Yep, took 3 YEARS for the market to hit rock bottom after the 1929 crash. And we are what, only 6 months into this crash? Long ways to go my friends.
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgDecades&decade=1930
Jason
PS I have lost ZERO dollars in this crash. I did not loose a dime in the markets or in my TSP. So I must be doing something right. As for others? Well, too bad for them. If you are going to gamble with your retirement, do it in Vegas. At least in Vegas they have drinks and women.
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Just because a number of people are screaming that the sky is falling is not a good reason to equate the current economic fiasco to the Great Depression days of '29 thru '33. There will always be extremists who want to be the first alarm ringers, and our liberal media will always help them spread their paranoia. Not to forget the parasitic ACLU, which only exists today due to the contagious nature of this type of fear. (I saw them referenced in another post, wanting to prove that the government was making preparations to handle outbreaks of panic in the country in the case of a total economic meltdown.)

We should all realize and understand that our standards of living are subject to change, and plan accordingly. Many people live above that concept, which is the reason they panic during the eventual "lean" periods. Just like the guy who bases his lifestyle on the extra money he makes in overtime pay, buying boats, motorcycles, etc. When the overtime pay suddenly stops, he can't handle the payments and blames the problem on his boss who didn't manage the business well enough to support his lavish lifestyle. Well, life sucks sometimes. (rant off):) (MHO)

View attachment 5258

"It's a hell of a thing to call this day and age the next Depression.
It's dangerous tinfoil hat territory inhabited mostly by screeching lunatics and volatile nutjobs.
But by the time they get squeezed out by reputable folks the whole gig will be up, the circus will have left town."
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/depression-california-housing-mortgage-time/index/a/18055
​
 
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Jason, thanks for the smile. :) Frixxxx, thanks for the words of sanity. And Birch, thanks for the voice of reason. Uh-h-h. Hm-m-m-m. Jason, thanks for another smile! :D

Lady
 
Since 1926, stocks have climbed an average of nearly 46% in the 12 months following a bear market trough. In the long history of the economy in general and the markets in particular, optimism has been rewarded far more often than pessimism. The market always looks ahead and begins its next bull market while a recession is still underway and worsening, while public investors are at an extreme pessimism. You will most asuredly find warmth and companionship on this board with many of our other gloom and doomers - anyway welcome to the cash bar.
 
Hey, when you're paranoid like me you're never alone because you know they are watching. :)

I figure it this way. If I have food, water, ammo, etc. and I am wrong then whooptydo, I have extra food, water, etc. Probably could sell some of it on Ebay. But, if I am right, then that makes me prepaired and others up a poop creak without a paddle. Better safe than sorry.

Now if you will excuse me, I am trying to watch another "sucker ralley" fizzle on Wall Street courtessy of Bloomberg TV. Do you know what a sucker ralley is? Sucker rallies were all the rallies that occured after the 1929 crash until the stock market hit rock bottom in 1932. Yep, took 3 YEARS for the market to hit rock bottom after the 1929 crash. And we are what, only 6 months into this crash? Long ways to go my friends.

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgDecades&decade=1930

Jason

PS I have lost ZERO dollars in this crash. I did not loose a dime in the markets or in my TSP. So I must be doing something right. As for others? Well, too bad for them. If you are going to gamble with your retirement, do it in Vegas. At least in Vegas they have drinks and women.
 
Jason dig your hole deep and you'll be safe from the reduced lunch at risk bunch. You know they're coming don't you?
 
rawiron1 said:
You know deep down inside that we are going into a depression. You know that you are scared. Just admit to it! I've been stocking up on food, water, gold, silver and ammo. Got other family members doing the same. We also have back road escape plans to NC and PA. Thank GOD I don't live in a city. When it tanks the cities will turn into meat grinders. Have you all been reading the news about the military bringing 20,000 troops home for "homeland operations"? And they ain't gonna be on the border! Have you been reading the reports of police nationwide prepairing for civil unrest due to a financial collapse? Well I have and I am worried!
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:notrust:
Umm, we are nowhere near the 25% Unemployment levels of the Great Depression. However, I see there may be a Great Paranoia out there causing you and others to react in this manner. We have been reducing troops from overseas for a while now. No surprise they are being redeployed. If the world turns on itself during this time then you might out last most, but remember to take a little sanity with you when you make the Great Escape.:notrust:
 
Mike vB said:
Seems to me that the difference is mainly one of interpretation...

what are your thoughts?
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One thing we have to remember about the actual Depression was that the dust bowl- and much of America's farmland- was utterly destroyed by non-financial means. At a time when half of America lived on or by the farm, this meant a lot. Also, there was a tremendous amount of deflation leading up and into the Depression. We may get this, but certainly not to the extent of the 20s. At any rate, as Chairman Bernake said yesterday, "There is no comparison."
 
Sign of the times- from the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/business/15spam.html?_r=2&scp=2&sq=spam&st=cse&oref=slogin

Spam Turns Serious and Hormel Turns Out More

15spam.600.jpg



AUSTIN, Minn. — The economy is in tatters and, for millions of people, the future is uncertain. But for some employees at the Hormel Foods Corporation plant here, times have never been better. They are working at a furious pace and piling up all the overtime they want.

Jerry’s Other Place sells a Spamburger for $6.29.

The workers make Spam, perhaps the emblematic hard-times food in the American pantry.

Through war and recession, Americans have turned to the glistening canned product from Hormel as a way to save money while still putting something that resembles meat on the table. Now, in a sign of the times, it is happening again, and Hormel is cranking out as much Spam as its workers can produce.

In a factory that abuts Interstate 90, two shifts of workers have been making Spam seven days a week since July, and they have been told that the relentless work schedule will continue indefinitely.

Spam, a gelatinous 12-ounce rectangle of spiced ham and pork, may be among the world’s most maligned foods, dismissed as inedible by food elites and skewered by comedians who have offered smart-alecky theories on its name (one G-rated example: Something Posing As Meat).

But these days, consumers are rediscovering relatively cheap foods, Spam among them. A 12-ounce can of Spam, marketed as “Crazy Tasty,” costs about $2.40. “People are realizing it’s not that bad a product,” said Dan Johnson, 55, who operates a 70-foot-high Spam oven.

Hormel declined to cooperate with this article, but several of its workers were interviewed here recently with the help of their union, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Local 9. Slumped in chairs at the union hall after making 149,950 cans of Spam on the day shift, several workers said they been through boom times before — but nothing like this.

Spam “seems to do well when hard times hit,” said Dan Bartel, business agent for the union local. “We’ll probably see Spam lines instead of soup lines.”

Even as consumers are cutting back on all sorts of goods, Spam is among a select group of thrifty grocery items that are selling steadily.

Pancake mixes and instant potatoes are booming. So are vitamins, fruit and vegetable preservatives and beer, according to data from October compiled by Information Resources, a market research firm.

“We’ve seen a double-digit increase in the sale of rice and beans,” said Teena Massingill, spokeswoman for the Safeway grocery chain, in an e-mail message. “They’re real belly fillers.”

Kraft Foods said recently that some of its value-oriented products like macaroni and cheese, Jell-O and Kool-Aid were experiencing robust growth. And sales are still growing, if not booming, for Velveeta, a Kraft product that bears the same passing resemblance to cheese as Spam bears to ham.

Spam holds a special place in America’s culinary history, both as a source of humor and of cheap protein during hard times.

Invented during the Great Depression by Jay Hormel, the son of the company’s founder, Spam is a combination of ham, pork, sugar, salt, water, potato starch and a “hint” of sodium nitrite “to help Spam keep its gorgeous pink color,” according to Hormel’s Web site for the product.

Because it is vacuum-sealed in a can and does not require refrigeration, Spam can last for years. Hormel says “it’s like meat with a pause button.”

During World War II, Spam became a staple for Allied troops overseas. They introduced it to local residents, and it remains popular in many parts of the world where the troops were stationed.

Spam developed a camp following in the 1970s, mainly because of Monty Python, the English comedy troupe. In a 1970 skit, a couple tried to order breakfast at a cafe featuring Spam in nearly every entree, like “Spam, Eggs, Sausage and Spam.” The diners were eventually drowned out by a group of Vikings singing, “Spam, lovely Spam, wonderful Spam.”

(Familiar with the skit, Internet pioneers labeled junk e-mail “spam” because it overwhelmed other dialogue, according to one theory.)

Here in Austin, local officials have tried to capitalize on Spam’s kitschy cultural status, even if a decidedly unpleasant odor hangs over the town (a slaughterhouse next to the Hormel plant butchers 19,000 hogs a day). Austin advertises itself as “Spamtown,” and it boasts 13 restaurants with Spam on the menu.

Jerry’s Other Place sells a Spamburger for $6.29. Johnny’s “Spamarama” menu includes eggs Benedict with Spam for $7.35. At Steve’s Pizza, a medium Spam and pineapple pizza costs $11.58
 
Mike vB said:
Is/would a stock market collapse be a dependent variable? Or independent?
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I agree with Show-Me. The obvious result of the Great Depression was
No Jobs for the common folk. Companies did not have the revenue coming
in, to keep the workforce gainfully employed. People didn't have the money to buy food, no less goods and services. No revenue, no earnings.
No earnings, no employment. No employment, no food. So you see, each
affect one another and go hand in hand. (JMHO)
 
Silverbird said:
During a Depression, you have around 25% unemployment. We are not there. That does NOT mean we are in good shape right now, it just could be worse.
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A Recession is when your neighbor is unemployed.
A Depression is when your unemployed.
 
During a Depression, you have around 25% unemployment. We are not there. That does NOT mean we are in good shape right now, it just could be worse.
 
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