Pulling some Back

Rolo

Active member
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Right above the mean is not much movement from the moving average. However, given the latency of requesting a transaction to the time it takes effect, yes, you got it.

The first line above the mean (the orange one) marks one standard deviation. The differential will stay within the orange and lime lines68% of the time. It is hard to go wrong when you stick to the probabilities.

It will stay between the red and green lines 95% of the time. Therefore, it will be between the orange/red, lime/green lines 27% of the time. I believe a "27% time" is near, a case where my instincts override banking on statistics. The FRO helps me to see not only the trends, but the exceptions as well, which are trends also, of a sort.

I call it, "calculated wingin' it".
 
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No, I thought I posted it on wrong Forum. I thought this was for Tom's allocation changes, didn't want to step on toes, LOL.
 
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Sorry. I thought I was deleting a blank post then I saw Rolo replied. :D I should keep reading before I make that decision.

This is one of those upside capitulation days. Shorts (those betting the market would go down) are getting squeezed into covering (buying the stocks they sold short). Then anyone who thinks they they missed the boat, jumps on in.

I am so glad I made myself keepthat 60% in stocks. There is no doubt I would have normally pulled 100% into the G fund with the resistance and overbought indicator so high. Thank goodness for having a plan (or an unemotional system like the FRO :D).

I'm not sure if the Wilshire quote is inaccurate cause it looked like small caps came down late butthe S&P did not. The yahoo quotemust be wrong. :%

It also looks like the dollar is continuing to fall against the pound and euro. Amazing. The I fund should have a wonderful day...without me. I'll have to read the dollar chart after the close to tell if it may make another push down. If so, I'll be putting something into the I fund when we get a pullback in the stocks indices.

Hang tough if you are not in. Let the "weak" money chase at these levels. The market is looking great but I would think a profit taking day in near and we may get a better chance to get more into the stocks.

Tom

One more thing. Volume was unusually low today (only 1.2 Billion on NYSE and 1.4 on the Nasdaq). Not what you'd normally see on a capitulation decline, and I'm not sure exactly what to make of it on a capitulation rally. My guess is the rally is losing steam but maybe it means there are still some bears that haven't come over to the bullish side. That would mean more upside potential. I guess I won't make anything out of it. I'll just watch what happens from here. Take care.
 
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tsptalk wrote:
Sorry. I thought I was deleting a blank post then I saw Rolo replied. :D I should keep reading before I make that decision.


You were. She deleted it while I was typing my response. Ya gotta be quick. ;)


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I was wondering about today's volume and you answered my question, T, and it does not surprise me that it is low. A LOT of my stocks have had higher-than-average volume today. Is this increasing rift between unusually stong stocks and the market as a whole normal? What does it mean?
 
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