Prometheus' Account Talk

[prometheus]

Been watching these boards on & off, as a new TSPer, & have learned quite a bit from ya'll, especially Cool Hand & JTH. So, here's a little something I cooked up, in return.

I do have quite a few hourly systems running for TSP trades, but have focused on intraday time-frames & leveraged ETFs lately. If anything actionable pops up on the hourlies, I'll be posting post-haste.

God speed, & Good Trading!

-prometheus

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome prometheus!

 

[nasa1974]

Prometheus, welcome aboard.

 

[JTH]

Welcome, good to have here in the forum, that's a cool spreadsheet you have!

 

[Frixxxx]

Welcome Prometheus!

Love the name and the sheet!

Hope to see your name up top next year!

Peace!

 

[Birchtree]

The current list does need a little wood in it for firmness - like Betula papyrifera.

 

[nnuut]

Welcome prometheus!
Beat of luck.
Norman

 

[prometheus]

Thanks all, always glad to team up with other investors. A note on the chart, the link is semi-permanent, & auto-updates from the Google spreadsheet every 5-mins. SO, just book mark the chart page, & it should be updated by 7pm PST most days

 

[prometheus]

Markets sell-off alert, on my favorite daily chart, PBR, currently the world's largest oil exploration outfit by market cap. This one's been giving good leading signals on SP-500 turns (SPY, white, on this particular chart).

On the main (top) chart, watch for a FMA 16+1/50 cross (purple & yellow), which is threatening a sell early next week.

On the RSI(14), PBR's soaring towards the critical 70 zone. If 70 & the upper Bollinger Band are pierced, & the FMA11 confirms by exceeding 66, look out below!

Also, my latest Top TSP is up, with a new time-series chart. Enjoy

 

[prometheus]

Take note of this BULL's SP-500 chart prognostications. We have a probable upside target of 1240-1250, maximum 1300 by end of year. On the downside, we're looking at 1040, if not a smashing fist through 1000, into no man's land...

Please, folks, consider the Risk-Reward at these levels. Personally, I'm beginning to think 85G, 15F, is a bit optimistic. Too bad Gold, Rare Earths, & Shadow Derivative 3x Shorts aren't, & will never be, within the realm of TSP

 

[Birchtree]

You can make good money in TSP after you have worked 30 years to build up a share position - accumulate while you can. Keep up the nice graphs because I appreciate them.

 

[prometheus]

Glad to hear it Birch. Here's an olive branch, & a single-malt, to our success in these tumultuous times!

 

[JimmyJoe]

I believe that it is advisable that we all invest according to our preferences and limitations. Even Birchtree would attest to that. Heed the advice from others only to the degree that it benefit our own personal financial gain and our own peace of mind. Remember we all do not have a partner with a defined retirement plan and a background of investing learned from experiences most of us would like to have. I keep an eye on most of the winning investors in the Tsptalk site, and have won and lost using strategies found therein. In the end, trust your own selves.

 

[prometheus]

Markets update: while my Daily-PBR system has signaled 'Red Alert' with the RSI (14) exceeding 70, there's still a 4-7 day window in which shorter term indicators, like the EUR/USD & US$, look bullish for US equities. Thus my 40G, 60S IFT today, in an attempt to capture 1-3% before going defensive for a significant post-G20 pullback. Damn shame, really, that we don't have 3+ IFTs. Having only 2 might as well be 1, since we can only make one effective risk-on entry, with any defensive moves mid-month blowing the second IFT, & any possibility of re-entry thereafter.

For your enjoyment, the latest Top TSP, which amazingly, hasn't budged since Friday.

 

[prometheus]

Quite a week! Second IFT used Wed to reposition in what I'd call a 'Bullish with reservations' position: 35G,15F,35C,15S. My systems show AGG on buy, SPX as more value than IWM, atm, & EFA as seriously overbought at current levels.

Going forward, we've got a US$ "Big Ben" cross in play as early as Mon 11/15:

My Top TSP System is showing the leaders of the pack positioned Bullishly at 35G,0F,9C,45S,11I. Not sure what's got folks zeroing out Bonds after a 50% allocation not that long ago, but 65% in equities + extra-strength POMO every day, for the next month, makes me think SP500 1300 is a very realistic EOY objective. That 35% UST 'hedge' may have something to do with PBR soaring at 70,000ft, with engines losing power & a frozen fuel gauge.

Hopefully we can all make some nice Xmas cash with the rally to come, but, it doesn't hurt to hedge against a perfectly healthy short-term pullback.

 

[prometheus]

Weekly update:
1) PBR Daily's pullback is playing out, now a potential Buy on all Equities, as early as Wed 11/17.

2) The "Big Ben Cross" is very, very close, spelling a tumble for the US$, & full speed ahead for Equities.

3) The Top TSP System is showing our best as Bullish as ever, over 2/3rds in C-S-I, still zeroed out in F (AGG). Planning to exit Bonds if AGG drops below the Weekly FMA(50) @106.6.

For those who've saved their bullets for entries today through Wednesday, well played. Best of luck to all!

 

[prometheus]

Went 67G,19C,14S today, in preparation for another leg down off this bear flag. PBR-Daily, US$ Dailys, & UUP-hourlies are still refusing to give signals that we've reached a bottom. Top TSP, which you can now compare graphed against SPX performance, is validating extreme caution right now, to the tune of 2:1 against a rally for the next week or two.

 

[Birchtree]

So you are now on ice for the next 8 trading days - but you can still back up. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend.

 

[JamesE]

Well Pro, I'm #396 and you're #397....I'm standing pat at 100% S this time. Three times this summer I bailed when things looked bleak and got HAMMERED on the rebound. Not happening again.

I still remain thoroughly convinced market actions are deliberate and nothing more than engineered profit taking. Run ups on lackluster news and drops on overblown european worries. Ireland.....Really???

 

[prometheus]

Overblown or not, don't forget what led to the May meltdown & Euro crash; our good friend Greece. The EUR/USD trade has been a no brainer this whole year. Any threats to & declines in the Euro will directly impact US Equities.

Well Pro, I'm #396 and you're #397....I'm standing pat at 100% S this time. Three times this summer I bailed when things looked bleak and got HAMMERED on the rebound. Not happening again.

I still remain thoroughly convinced market actions are deliberate and nothing more than engineered profit taking. Run ups on lackluster news and drops on overblown european worries. Ireland.....Really???