polarbear‎'s Account Talk

[polarbear]

I am submitting a screen capture of three graphs from my TSP tracking Excel file for anyone who is interested. Besides tracking share values from 2006 thru the present, where you can put in your own numbers of shares, it also tracks (where I have entered them: S&P500, ^DWCPF, EFA, and, of course, the G, F, C, S, I Fund share prices, so one can compare. I enter them by hand daily. One cannot get behind on this, say simply because one is dejected about the results, because then it's a bear catching up. Hm, possible pun there.

The three graphs are: 1) S and I Funds compared (Cumulative % change), 2) I Fund and EFA Index compared (Cumulative % change), 3) Share values compared. In (1) and (2) I also show my X Fund, which tracks where I was starting April 11, starting in the S Fund and going from there (see my previous posts) until it wound up in the G Fund on July 1. Hibernation is good for the polar bear soul at this point in time.

Graph (2) is in answer to the question asked on this website and even more insistently on ********* as to why the I Fund is something of a wild mouse per the EFA Index. It seems to balance out _sometimes_ over the course of the following 2-3 days after it has gone rogue, so to speak, either up or down, you win and you lose, but actually more like 2-3 weeks per some residual excess that does not seem to want to go away so fast.

 

[polarbear]

Re: Excel graphs of S, I Funds, EFA Index

I attached the wrong file.

 

[polarbear]

Excel graphs of S, I Funds, EFA Index

Dang! Sorry to junk up this forum like this, but in editing I could not figure out how to de-attach, so here I am finally attaching the right one, not the previous one.

Previous text:

I am submitting a screen capture of three graphs from my TSP tracking Excel file for anyone who is interested. Besides tracking share values from 2006 thru the present, where you can put in your own numbers of shares, it also tracks (where I have entered them) S&P500, ^DWCPF, EFA, and, of course, the G, F, C, S, I Fund share prices, so one can compare. I enter them by hand daily. One cannot get behind on this, say simply because one is dejected about the results, because then it's a bear catching up. Hm, possible pun there.

The three graphs are: 1) S and I Funds compared (Cumulative % change); 2) I Fund and EFA Index compared (Cumulative % change); 3) Share values compared. In (1) and (2) I also show my X Fund, which tracks where I was, starting April 11, starting in the S Fund and going from there (see my previous post July 11) until it wound up in the G Fund on July 1. Hibernation is good for the polar bear soul at this time.

Graph (2) is in answer to the question asked on this webiste and even more insistently on ********* as to why the I Fund is something of a wild mouse per the EFA Index. It seems to balance out over the course of the following 2-3 days after it has gone rogue, so to speak, either up or down, you win and you lose, but actually more like 2-3 weeks per some residual excess that does not seem to want to go away that fast. Sure, this is, as Tom has pointed out again and again, because of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

 

[polarbear]

Here are the graphs

Here are the graphs. It seems my second thread got deleted somehow. That was what I thot was my successful attempt to attach the right file. So here goes a third thread. This thread has the attachment that should have been attached to the first thread. Check it out.

On the subject of current happenings in the market,
I have no idea where this market is going in the next few days, or of what is going to happen in Washington. That is a complete mystery to me. Anything is possible. Europe looks a little more predictable.

 

[KevinD]

Re: Here are the graphs

You could have just added this to the original thread without starting a new one. Maybe thats why something got deleted.

In the post reply area at the bottom you can click "go advanced" and there is more functionality.

Anyway...thanks for the info and welcome to TSPtalk.

 

[polarbear]

Re: Here are the graphs

Thanks for the heads-up.

 

[nasa1974]

polarbear, Just wanted to bounce your account near the top so it is easier to find. :laugh: Good luck!!

 

[polarbear]

Thanks, NASA man. It will take me some time to get used to the in's and out's of blogging and forums, but I'll get there.
For the time being, I'm doing what the majority of this whole group seems to be doing, hanging out in the garage (G Fund) while the meat grinder keeps on grinding, mkt w/o direction for now. Glad to be out. We'll see. Pisani on CNBC has a similar remark: "We've all got crisis fatigue." I really don't mind missing out on a few extra coins, just not an avalanche, I'd like to have my cup under that, but, as they say, someone else can scoop up coins in front of a steamroller, not me. Hey, may the force be with us!

Oh, btw, looking at some other guy's results on the web, I see where the missing piece of my method that I presented in my first posts is clearly not just switch between S and I and back, but occasionally jump out into G. The thing is, the IFT rules are unforgiving, in that such a move before the escape phase after the first two, i.e., when one of the first two, uses up one of the first two. 'Nuff said about that.