Plenty of room for improvement!

[FundSurfer]

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I just posted in Namors account talk that the maximum possible gain for September was 11.9% and the largest possible loss was -8.3% BTW. The index funds were C-fund (0.9%), S-fund (3.2%), and the I-fund (1.8%) for the month.

Just for giggles, I calculated the maximum possible TSP gain (the gain if you were 100%in the highest earning fund every day) at 111% since the beginning of the year and the maximum possible loss at 101%

There is plenty of room for improvement! Lets get cracking!

 

[tsptalk]

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Sounds good. Now where'd we put that crystal ball?

Today was weird. In the morning you were glad you were invested and by the afternoon you wish you weren't. It's tough to make those calls at the noon deadline. Playing those daily moves is way tough. Finding the main trend is important but the problem is the trend has been relatively flat for months now.

Lately I haven't been playing the wiggles because I just haven't been able to figure it out. That is why I am just sticking by my indicators and let them tell me what to do. My emotional decisions tend to get me in and out at the wrong time.

 

[FundSurfer]

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The good thing is that the TSP index of the I fund did well today despite the index being down 0.2%. Interesting to me is how different they ended up today. I usually follow the indexes on Yahoo, but that doesn't always hit the mark. I wonder what causes the difference.

 

[Dakota]

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I was shocked when I saw the markets . I was 40 g 30c 30i thought I lost the game today. That I fund turned out a lot better than the indicator said. how did that work? At least I should have made some instead of the loss I thought that I took. Guess I'll stay the same and see what tomorrow shows. Maybe move to the S in a couple days. wierd, can anyone explain.

 

[tsptalk]

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FundSurfer wrote:

The good thing is that the TSP index of the I fund did well today despite the index being down 0.2%. Interesting to me is how different they ended up today. I usually follow the indexes on Yahoo, but that doesn't always hit the mark. I wonder what causes the difference.

Believe it or not, because the markets are open all night, there is some guesswork involved on the part of the EAFE index managers. It was odd to me that the I fund was down Monday so i thought they'd make adjustments today, and they did. That was why in the comments I said...

"The I fund may do well today. I think I'll get out for tomorrow....
...But something is happening that is makes me want to make a transfer this morning. The dollar has been scraping the bottom of its recent trend channel (see chart below) so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a little bounce here soon. That means the I fund may not be the best place to be...after today. I actually expect a nice pop in the I fund today so, if I am right, today may be the day to step aside. I'll jump back in if the dollar moves up some."

We discussed this a while back if you are interested. Here is the link...[url]http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/93.html[/url]

Tom