Plan early and save the minimum?

maxdouttsp

New member
I am just a guy with a spreadsheet. I am open to suggestion from all of you that have achieved the financial independence I desire. I would like to set a goal, perhaps I am setting the bar too high, but then at least I will have options that are of my own choosing, not based on my bank account. Without having a discussion on what I would do with myself, I would like to retire at 57.

I started federal employment in September of 2008. My birthday is in October. I am 39 and my wife is 43 and works outside the home (she will get a social security benefit). My wife and I are non-smokers in good health – I plan for a long retirement. I was looking at the requirements for retirement under the FERS plan. My minimum retirement age is 57. It appears I would qualify for an immediate retirement at 57 and the benefits would start at age 60. On my 57 birthday, I would have 21 years of service. Is this a smart move if my other finances are in order or am I somehow cheating myself out of tens of thousands of dollars of benefits by not working a few months longer?

I visited the social security website and estimated the future dollars of our benefits at 62 and then plugged in a COLA at 2.92%. My wife would start at $10,900 and I would start at $29,700 if you can believe the estimates. I did not include a survivor benefit for my wife.

I did not find a calculator that would estimate my pension 20 years out so I guestimated future dollars of $27,800. I plugged in a COLA of 2.00%. I did not include a survivor benefit for my wife. At first glance, it appears I would qualify for the FERS annuity supplement that would pay out from age 57 to 62 ($14,500?).

We both have ROTH IRAs and plan to put the max in each year and will do catch up contributions when allowed. I plan to put the max in each year to the TSP and will do catch up contributions when allowed. I have not decided if I will continue with the traditional TSP or switch to the ROTH option for future contributions.

We had $275,000 saved at the end of 2011 in the TSP, ROTHs, brokerage acct, checking, etc. Our savings took a hit just like everyone else in 94, 02, and 08. The rest of our savings was equity in two homes that has evaporated in the past few years. We have no debt outside a mortgage. I estimated a portfolio return of 8% from 2010 to 2019; 7.5% from 2020-2029; 7% from 2030-2039; 6.5% from 2040-2049; 6% from 2050-2059; 5.5% thereafter.

We should have about 2-3 million at age 57. The compounding interest really starts to pay off when I am 57-60 years. I plugged in a current dollar income needed to maintain my lifestyle and applied a consumer price index/inflation at 2.88%. There should be enough money for travel, hobbies, cars, taxes, medical needs, insurance, etc. for a lifestyle of $100,000 a year income in today’s dollars.

I was trying to do all of this retirement planning on the back of my employment and anything my wife earns increases our current standard of living or becomes more to save if that year’s circumstances allow/force it to stay on plan. I do not plan on any inheritance from my wife’s side or mine. We live a simple lifestyle yet do not deprive ourselves of a normal standard of living.

What would you do different from now to age 57 (besides save more!)? All I get is odd looks and unreturned calls from the retirement/financial services companies I have approached/interviewed for advice after I show them my spreadsheet.
 
Wow, I wish I was doing all of that... I am by no means as far along as you and I am older... dang.

I can't help with the Civ stuff, but the retirement planning ($$ wise) and your assumptions seem pretty good to me.

Good Luck !!
 
I would recommend you stay away from mutual funds for your Roth IRAs - build your own with dividend paying stocks and watch the growth going forward.
 
I am just a guy with a spreadsheet. I am open to suggestion from all of you that have achieved the financial independence I desire. I would like to set a goal, perhaps I am setting the bar too high, but then at least I will have options that are of my own choosing, not based on my bank account. Without having a discussion on what I would do with myself, I would like to retire at 57.

I started federal employment in September of 2008. My birthday is in October. I am 39 and my wife is 43 and works outside the home (she will get a social security benefit). My wife and I are non-smokers in good health – I plan for a long retirement. I was looking at the requirements for retirement under the FERS plan. My minimum retirement age is 57. It appears I would qualify for an immediate retirement at 57 and the benefits would start at age 60. On my 57 birthday, I would have 21 years of service. Is this a smart move if my other finances are in order or am I somehow cheating myself out of tens of thousands of dollars of benefits by not working a few months longer?

I visited the social security website and estimated the future dollars of our benefits at 62 and then plugged in a COLA at 2.92%. My wife would start at $10,900 and I would start at $29,700 if you can believe the estimates. I did not include a survivor benefit for my wife.

I did not find a calculator that would estimate my pension 20 years out so I guestimated future dollars of $27,800. I plugged in a COLA of 2.00%. I did not include a survivor benefit for my wife. At first glance, it appears I would qualify for the FERS annuity supplement that would pay out from age 57 to 62 ($14,500?).

We both have ROTH IRAs and plan to put the max in each year and will do catch up contributions when allowed. I plan to put the max in each year to the TSP and will do catch up contributions when allowed. I have not decided if I will continue with the traditional TSP or switch to the ROTH option for future contributions.

We had $275,000 saved at the end of 2011 in the TSP, ROTHs, brokerage acct, checking, etc. Our savings took a hit just like everyone else in 94, 02, and 08. The rest of our savings was equity in two homes that has evaporated in the past few years. We have no debt outside a mortgage. I estimated a portfolio return of 8% from 2010 to 2019; 7.5% from 2020-2029; 7% from 2030-2039; 6.5% from 2040-2049; 6% from 2050-2059; 5.5% thereafter.

We should have about 2-3 million at age 57. The compounding interest really starts to pay off when I am 57-60 years. I plugged in a current dollar income needed to maintain my lifestyle and applied a consumer price index/inflation at 2.88%. There should be enough money for travel, hobbies, cars, taxes, medical needs, insurance, etc. for a lifestyle of $100,000 a year income in today’s dollars.

I was trying to do all of this retirement planning on the back of my employment and anything my wife earns increases our current standard of living or becomes more to save if that year’s circumstances allow/force it to stay on plan. I do not plan on any inheritance from my wife’s side or mine. We live a simple lifestyle yet do not deprive ourselves of a normal standard of living.

What would you do different from now to age 57 (besides save more!)? All I get is odd looks and unreturned calls from the retirement/financial services companies I have approached/interviewed for advice after I show them my spreadsheet.

Take the basic FEGLI life insurance, as it is relatively inexpensive and has a final benefit with no more pay when you are in your 60's, but the rest of the FEGLI options are really expensive. As life insurance payouts are not taxable, it is a great way to pass on wealth. Look into setting up both revocable and non revocable trust accounts so that the Tax Man does not get it all, nor does the state should you end up in long term care and they try to attach you assets. At this point you may have crossed the threshold and gone beyond retirement and entered into estate planning.
 
Maxdouttsp,

First of all, I want to commend you for doing an outstanding job on really thinking through your retirement scenario. Bravo!

Based on my past experience as a financial advisor, I'd say you're in the top 1% of people who really have given their retirement a thorough analysis.

The reason you're not getting any help from the retirement/financial services companies, is that they know they can't hoodwink you into one of their canned products. Stay away from them. Learn the market yourself. No one cares more about your money than you do.

One recommendation: If you haven't already, I would advise attending a two day Federal Retirement Planning class. You'll learn a little bit more about the specifics of the Federal system, and how you can take advantage of everything available to you. I would also plan on taking it again every 10 yrs or so, just to make sure nothing has changed with your retirement assumptions.

Best of luck to you!

John
 
I was told that my agency is in the preliminary stages of arranging for Personal Benefit Services of Colorado, Inc. (PBS) to give a course near the office this year (tentatively fall) and to stay tuned. I will attend and encourage my wife to attend with me. THANKS!
 
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My employee benefits statement in Employee Express states I have FEGLI Basic - Federal Employees Group Life Insurance - in the amount of $84,800. My annual premium is $206.70. THANKS!
 
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I was in mutual funds in the past. I was just talking to my dad about making some changes to our portfolio and start to invest in individual stocks. I purchased my first individual stock in 2009 - NASDAQ:FAST and it has really taken off this past year or two. Perhaps time to take some profits and get out of that one and buy two more... THANKS!
 
I'm not sure but I think Social Security is a household benefit. IOW you and your wife may not both collect at the same time. Is that right?
 
Max, REALLY glad you're here. You sound just like me with your goals and planning. I have a very similar spreadsheet with multiple projections and scenarios laid out. Sometime later I'll plug your numbers into my own calculations and see how it looks. Of course it's all based on current income and projected required income in retirement (I use 80% of gross). I just turned 34 and my obscene goal is to retire as close to 50 as possible. Right now I'm on track for 56 or 57!! So maybe not likely to reach my goal, but we all need goals :). To accomplish this, one thing I know I need to build is a separate taxable brokerage to account as a "bridge" to provide income before I get to draw on my retirement accounts.

I agree with Birch. Look very seriously at moving out of mutual funds and into "safe" dividend paying stocks. I'm currently trading w/in my IRAs and building my dividend paying "bridge" account within my taxable brokerage.

As for numbers, I found this article earlier in the year. I think it is an EXCELLENT article. It's a bit heavy on the math side but I think provides good target ranges (low end/high end) for your retirement savings and horizon. I can tell you one thing, I'm familiar with monte carlo simulations, many aren't. The probabilities for success as laid out by the authors is rather robust, statistically speaking. That doesn't mean it's a guarantee, but a good guide. If you can understand what these guys are talking about you will realize why you got blank stares. I think many of the day-by-day retirement planners just aren't sophisticated enough to apply their cookie cutter calculators in any way that strays from the usual retirement script.

http://corporate.morningstar.com/ib...s/ibbassociates/nationalsavingsguidelines.pdf
 
Thank you for the reading material. I am heading to Denver for a conference and this is perfect for the flight and airport. Good luck with your goals. My theory is that most people want to do what were are doing but they never put a real plan together in writing. The trick is to keep at it and review the plan and adjust as needed. I do not think you have to have a high paying job or get "lucky" in the stock market to make these plans work. I have a short amount of patience with the people that then think we are "lucky" for achieving our goals or we had it somehow easier than them. Even if you never make your goal of 50, at least you will have many more options that others only dream about.
 
Exactly.

At some point when I have more time we can discuss the assumptions I use for my model, at the moment they are EXTREMELY conservative (i.e. not planning for any SS or a fun part-time gig in retirement). I know the assumptions need tweaking/optimizing and I think most of that will bring me closer to the goal. For now, I stick to the conservative plan as much as possible because you never know what speed bumps might pop up. I have a few years to "optimize" the model. :laugh:
 
First thing to do is figure out your expenses so you know how much you need to pull from your accounts when you leave the workforce.
Then you need to come up with a safe withdrawal rate (Usually I see 4%. From what I understand the reason for this number is because the markets average a 7% return/year, considering 3% inflation/year).
Once you have these numbers you can figure out the amount you need to have in those accounts to withdraw what you need so you only take gains.

Obviously you can build in whatever cushion makes you feel comfortable. You are already far ahead of most of your coworkers. Congrats!
 
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