People's basic strategies.

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I have seen from time to time some strategies using moving averages from people here on this forum for our TSP. They seemed really interesting to me since some of the back tested returns averaged 20%/year I believe. Also, they refered to tspmoney.com (good site) I believe for some charts/graphs and even made some of their own. Could people lay out their basic moving average strategies that could be updated rather easily, daily? Thanks for your input.

Still 100% G since April 30th.

Joel
 
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I use 3 moving averages, 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow). As I mentioned late last week I believe, the fast moving average for the C fundwas moving into the intermediate moving average, not a good sign, and we all know what happened to the markets this week.

I use this in conjunction with my golden rule of taking your 63-day average and buying when stock prices are .20 below the price of the average, and selling when the price is .30 above. Using this system, your returns for the year would be: C fund 6.2%, S fund 14%, and I fund 16%. A combination of CSI would be 12.07% and SI would be 15%. Not too shabby eh?
 
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Oh by the way, the S fund is very close to my "buy" signal. :^
 
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I have seen youwrite about your strategy before. I could not remember who's it was, hence the generic question by me. Could you be more specific. Does .20 mean 20 cents or percentage. How long have you been doing this? How do you track it. I think that it is a great system, especially if you are up 12-15% throughout the first 6 months of the year. Can we keep this thread going? I'm in the need of a little tutoring. Thanks

Joel
 
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I have always been curious on how the MA is chosen. Why is 50-day so important? 13-day? 63-day?

I see them everywhere (except the 63-day one, heh), but why those intervals?
 
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Yes, .20 is 20 cents below your 63-day average and .3 is 30 cents above. I use 5, 21, and 63 day averages because www.tspmoney.com does and 5-day makes more since to me than 3-day as some people use. The market can be very volatile as we all know, so I think 5-day is more realistic. 63-day average is just a long term indicator of how the markets are performing. Either up, down, or sideways as they are now.

I've tried to post my spreadsheet for the year but have been unable to. I sent it to Tom to see if he could post it, don't know if he received or not. Ifanyone would like me to send it to you, e-mail me at mlk_man@yahoo.com.

My moving averages charts show the fast moving averages of the C and S fund dipping below the 63-day average so we are very close to a "buy" signal. My 20 cents below theory is not quite there yet, so I'll see how the next couple of days go. If we fall a little more, I'll probably go 50% C and 50% S. Maybe even 100% S until they raise the rates again, we'll see. The I fund is still trading right at it's highs so it's not an attractive alternative to me at this time. I think you'll see it up one day then back down the next so I don't think you'll make much on it unless you time it right from day to day.

Currently 100% G but probably not for long. Stayed tuned! :^
 
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Thanks Tom. One more word of note, if two of the three funds gives me a sell signal, then I sell all three.
 
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mlk_man wrote:


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The I fund is still trading right at it's highs so it's not an attractive alternative to me at this time. I think you'll see it up one day then back down the next so I don't think you'll make much on it unless you time it right from day to day.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agree :DRight or Wrong ,It still to high to look at I-fund yet.:^
 
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Thanks a ton! This looks good. I will download the spreadsheet if that is OK with you? I will check it out and get back to you. Your returns are excellent, especially in such an up and down year! What if there is a bull market run like from 3/03-1/04? Do you leave it in or have some indicator to leave it in? Thanks again. MLK
 
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You're very welcome. Yes, if the markets are trending up, just stay in and ride
 
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So which do you rely more heavily upon, the short, intermediate, and long average angle or the .30 below and .20 above (to sell) or is it a combination of both. How do you handle if you buy .2 (or .3 I can't remember) below and it continues to go down? Do you have other indicators you follow for this? Thanks for the answers in advance. I'll hang up and listen.

Joel
 
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I go more by the buy at 30 cents above and sell at 20cents below the 63-day moving average. If prices are dropping farther, you can get out and watch your moving averages to see when they start to rise again, or you can just stay in like I did in May because the will rise eventually. You absolutely do not want to miss the rise back up.:^
 
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Oops, I meant sell at 30 cents above and buy at 20 cents below, sorry.:shock:
 
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Hmmm...how do I add today's prices to your spreadsheet, mlk? Just insert a row and paste it from TSP.gov?
 
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So where are you at right now? 100% G? Will you post here when you buy? Thanks for all the info.

Joel
 
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