05/17/13
Rumors of the Fed "tapering" their massive bond buying program gave stocks a little jolt in late afternoon trading on Thursday. The Dow lost 42-points while bonds rebounded.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
As far as the charts and indicators go, there wasn't much of a change in either. The S&P 500 has now closed 3 consecutive days above the rising resistance. Good sign, but today is options expiration Friday, and next week is a post-options expiration week. We can see things get shaken up in the next couple of trading days.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart shows the sore thumb breakout, but breakouts like this are usually short-term sell opportunities for professional traders, but they will probably continue to buy the dips until this trend breaks down and there is no sign of that yet. At least in the long term. There is a rising support line shown in the chart above that could break, but that would only pose short-term problems if broken.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I mentioned this the other day where the sentimenTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence in a rally indicator saw the smart money below 30 and the dumb money at 62. That dumb money number jumped to 67 over the last coupe of days so this is getting close to being outright bearish for stocks... Dumb over 70 while the smart is below 30 is a problem.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds rallied off the recent lows on Thursday, but the TLT is now up against some resistance - both the descending resistance line and the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Next week is a pre-holiday week and here is the historical performance surrounding Memorial day weekend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Early next week (days -5 to -3) shows some historical weakness, probably related to post options expiration. The week following the Memorial Day looks a little better although the Tuesday after the holiday has a poor record.
I remember about a week ago, when the Dow lost 20 some points on the day. On our Facebook page, one of our readers commented the next day asking, "What happened yesterday?" While we haven't seen a whole lot of bullishness despite this powerful rally, that kind of sentiment could be telling in that we expect the market to go up every day now. Who knows where momentum can take the indices? It may depend on how much cash is still on the sidelines. But I know the rally will end when more of us expect the market to go up every day and are surprised when it doesn't. No disrespect to the person who made the comment. Just an observation. I'm sure that person has made a lot of money this year if they have been that bullish.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Rumors of the Fed "tapering" their massive bond buying program gave stocks a little jolt in late afternoon trading on Thursday. The Dow lost 42-points while bonds rebounded.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
As far as the charts and indicators go, there wasn't much of a change in either. The S&P 500 has now closed 3 consecutive days above the rising resistance. Good sign, but today is options expiration Friday, and next week is a post-options expiration week. We can see things get shaken up in the next couple of trading days.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart shows the sore thumb breakout, but breakouts like this are usually short-term sell opportunities for professional traders, but they will probably continue to buy the dips until this trend breaks down and there is no sign of that yet. At least in the long term. There is a rising support line shown in the chart above that could break, but that would only pose short-term problems if broken.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I mentioned this the other day where the sentimenTrader.com Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence in a rally indicator saw the smart money below 30 and the dumb money at 62. That dumb money number jumped to 67 over the last coupe of days so this is getting close to being outright bearish for stocks... Dumb over 70 while the smart is below 30 is a problem.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds rallied off the recent lows on Thursday, but the TLT is now up against some resistance - both the descending resistance line and the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Next week is a pre-holiday week and here is the historical performance surrounding Memorial day weekend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Early next week (days -5 to -3) shows some historical weakness, probably related to post options expiration. The week following the Memorial Day looks a little better although the Tuesday after the holiday has a poor record.
I remember about a week ago, when the Dow lost 20 some points on the day. On our Facebook page, one of our readers commented the next day asking, "What happened yesterday?" While we haven't seen a whole lot of bullishness despite this powerful rally, that kind of sentiment could be telling in that we expect the market to go up every day now. Who knows where momentum can take the indices? It may depend on how much cash is still on the sidelines. But I know the rally will end when more of us expect the market to go up every day and are surprised when it doesn't. No disrespect to the person who made the comment. Just an observation. I'm sure that person has made a lot of money this year if they have been that bullish.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
