4/16/12
The strong rally on Wednesday and Thursday last week, came to an abrupt end on Friday as the indices were sent reeling. The Dow lost 137 and the S&P 500 is hanging onto some key support to start this week.
For the TSP, the C-fund was down 1.25% on Friday, the S-fund fell 1.28%, the I-fund gave up 1.19%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.22%.
For the weekly and monthly TSP returns, please see our recent TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.
The chart of the S&P 500 still looks promising to me with the index trading above the 50-day EMA, the intermediate-term rising trendline that started at the lows on October of last year, and the 2011 high. The problem is, it is barely hanging onto to these levels and we could turn from promising to broken pretty quickly.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A closer look shows the current battle between the 20 and 50-day EMA's.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As nicely as the S&P is setting up for a bounce, the odds start getting longer when the leaders start to breakdown.
The Dow Transportation Index has really struggled since the high it made in February. It was not able to make new highs like the S&P 500 did, and it is now below the 50-day EMA - certainly something we have to watch. This leader has not been much of a leader this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Another leader, the small caps of the Russell 2000 Index, are also trading below the 50-day EMA. Not a great sign, but the open gap above may give us at least some short-term positive hope since gaps tend to get filled sooner rather than later. And if the big open gap does get filled quickly, the index would likely be back above the 50-day EMA, so the short-term action could be very important for the intermediate to longer-term. Filling the gap would also add more credibility to the double bottom holding near 785.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bond yields were trying to rebound - before the March jobs report, but that weak report left a big open gap up near 2.14%. Again, I'd expect the gap to get filled sooner rather than later, but we may need to see some positive economic data this week before that happens.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indices tried to rally Friday afternoon, but the late selling may have been nervous investors bailing before the weekend since the economic woes out of Europe continue to unfold over there. I haven't heard anything terrible yet as I write this Sunday night, but the futures aren't exactly rebounding yet. They are down slightly, and we'll see if that changes when the European markets start to open.
Administrative Note: Over the last few months I have added some new tools for TSP Talk, mostly for the forum, and while I have posted the links around the website, I am not sure I have mentioned them here in the commentary. Since I posted a new one this weekend, it seems like a good time to go over some of them - old and new.
If you view TSP Talk from any kind of mobile device, we now have several options.
TSP Talk can be viewed just using a regular mobile browser and many people seem to like that option. But there is also a basic dot mobi version of the website (www.tsptalk.mobi) that makes the pages a little more mobile friendly.
For the forum (or message board) we have several options.
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[TD] Android App for our Forums - This App was developed by our forum software team and is free to use.
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[TD] iPhone App for our Forums - Also created by our forum software team - also free.
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[TD] Tapa Talk Forum App - This is an independent company and they may charge a small fee ($1.99) to download their App, but I believe it gives you access to all of their apps. I find it very user friendly.
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[TD] Forum Runner - Like Tapa Talk above, Forum Runner was created independently but I believe it was recently purchased by our forum software company. There is a free version that allows you to read the forum, but to interact and post they do charge a small fee. TSP Talk does not charge any fees. It is charged by the developers of the software.
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Other tools:
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[TD] TSP Talk Toolbar - Since I am on TSP Talk so often, I may find this cooler than some of you. This toolbar puts links to our more popular TSP Talk pages right on your browser.
If you are an AutoTracker member and you have to enter an IFT, or you want a quick look at the TSP share prices, or recent commentary / blogs, the forum, premium services, etc,. etc, the link is right there for super quick access. I use it all the time.
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[TD] Utilities - This page contains several spreadsheets to help you track your TSP account yourself.
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The TSP AutoTracker - Forum members can compare their returns with other members and win prizes for the best monthly and annual returns. It's free! You just have to enter your transfer allocations to mirror your TSP account. No money amounts needed - just allocation percentages.
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
