06/01/26
Stocks continued their winning ways on Friday with the S&P 500 posting its 7th straight daily gain, and its 9th straight positive week. The market has become numb to the on again, off again deal with Iran and has concentrated again on the growth and spending of AI technology, and the fact that bond yields and the price of oil have cooperated, hasn't hurt.
The bull market has pushed aside almost every possible headwind that been thrown at it in recent weeks.
- During midterm election years, the S&P had a dismal record in May. The S&P 500 was up over 5% in May.
- The pre / post Memorial Day weekend holiday reversal never happened. The S&P 500 was up both weeks.
- The S&P 500 is now on a 9-week winning streak. That's only happened 11 times in the last 80+ years.
This is all happening with the 10-year Treasury Yield moving from 3.95% to the current 4.45% in the last three months, and the WTIC oil price going from $65 to the current $88 during that same three months.
Of course what has happened in the last week or two with the war deescalating bringing yields and oil off their highs, kept the upside going, where otherwise it could have taken the steam out of the rally.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was down again on Friday but it is settling into an area that could provide some support. 4.4% looks like a line in the sand where a rising support line meets the 50-day average and an open gap.
WTIC Oil has also been drifting lower and it is clinging to the purple moving average below, and if it is going to remain buoyant this may be where it holds.
Of course any dovish developments in the Middle East should keep oil from moving higher, but I saw where an ExxonMobil executive warned that Brent oil prices (currently $94) "could surge to between $150 and $160 per barrel within weeks as conflict in the Middle East drains global inventories."
According to CNBC, "Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil, told investors at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in New York that global inventories could reach critical lows within "two to three weeks."
"Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up," Chapman said.
$70 or $150? We'll see. Oil futures were up about $2 to over $89 on Sunday evening.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) keeps moving higher and a positive market is tough to argue with, but as this gets more stretched above its average and support lines, an inevitable pullback is surely lurking. It has been up for 9 straight weeks. There were 10 postive weeks in a row in 1963, 12 in 1985, and 13 in 1957. But that's it, so 10 in a row would be a rarity.
The weekly chart shows that it is trading above its long-term trading channel.
I had mentioned last week that consumer sentiment, whether on the economy or the stock market, is considerable lower than you'd imagine considering the strength in the stock market. I suggested that it is probably skewed because of politics, but this indicator from the Bank of America shows us some signs of exuberance.
We have another busy economic data calendar this week, culminating with the May Jobs repot on Friday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts::
DWCPF (S-fund) continues to grind higher after the early May consolidation / pullback. It looks pretty good here but those open gaps below always get my attention.
ACWX (I-fund) also made a new high on Friday, but it closed at the lows of the day so it starts June following a negative reversal day. It is closer to the top of that blue "F" flag, but it is trending higher.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to surprise me and on Friday we saw the large pennant formation break to the upside as BND now has a seven day winning streak. Again, yields look like they have some support and that could cause some issues here, but right now this is quite improved and another close or two above 73.40 would be very convincing.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks continued their winning ways on Friday with the S&P 500 posting its 7th straight daily gain, and its 9th straight positive week. The market has become numb to the on again, off again deal with Iran and has concentrated again on the growth and spending of AI technology, and the fact that bond yields and the price of oil have cooperated, hasn't hurt.
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The bull market has pushed aside almost every possible headwind that been thrown at it in recent weeks.
- During midterm election years, the S&P had a dismal record in May. The S&P 500 was up over 5% in May.
- The pre / post Memorial Day weekend holiday reversal never happened. The S&P 500 was up both weeks.
- The S&P 500 is now on a 9-week winning streak. That's only happened 11 times in the last 80+ years.
This is all happening with the 10-year Treasury Yield moving from 3.95% to the current 4.45% in the last three months, and the WTIC oil price going from $65 to the current $88 during that same three months.
Of course what has happened in the last week or two with the war deescalating bringing yields and oil off their highs, kept the upside going, where otherwise it could have taken the steam out of the rally.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was down again on Friday but it is settling into an area that could provide some support. 4.4% looks like a line in the sand where a rising support line meets the 50-day average and an open gap.
WTIC Oil has also been drifting lower and it is clinging to the purple moving average below, and if it is going to remain buoyant this may be where it holds.
Of course any dovish developments in the Middle East should keep oil from moving higher, but I saw where an ExxonMobil executive warned that Brent oil prices (currently $94) "could surge to between $150 and $160 per barrel within weeks as conflict in the Middle East drains global inventories."
According to CNBC, "Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil, told investors at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference in New York that global inventories could reach critical lows within "two to three weeks."
"Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up," Chapman said.
$70 or $150? We'll see. Oil futures were up about $2 to over $89 on Sunday evening.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) keeps moving higher and a positive market is tough to argue with, but as this gets more stretched above its average and support lines, an inevitable pullback is surely lurking. It has been up for 9 straight weeks. There were 10 postive weeks in a row in 1963, 12 in 1985, and 13 in 1957. But that's it, so 10 in a row would be a rarity.
The weekly chart shows that it is trading above its long-term trading channel.
I had mentioned last week that consumer sentiment, whether on the economy or the stock market, is considerable lower than you'd imagine considering the strength in the stock market. I suggested that it is probably skewed because of politics, but this indicator from the Bank of America shows us some signs of exuberance.
We have another busy economic data calendar this week, culminating with the May Jobs repot on Friday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts::
DWCPF (S-fund) continues to grind higher after the early May consolidation / pullback. It looks pretty good here but those open gaps below always get my attention.
ACWX (I-fund) also made a new high on Friday, but it closed at the lows of the day so it starts June following a negative reversal day. It is closer to the top of that blue "F" flag, but it is trending higher.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to surprise me and on Friday we saw the large pennant formation break to the upside as BND now has a seven day winning streak. Again, yields look like they have some support and that could cause some issues here, but right now this is quite improved and another close or two above 73.40 would be very convincing.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
