Mostro's Account thread

[Mostro]

Hello,

I need help! Getting close to the presidential elections last year and fearing a big change in the market, I sold all the stock and moved the money to the G funds. Since all the contrary happened and the market has gotten stronger everyday, now I have a little over 200k stuck in the G funds and don't now when and how to get it back in the stock market. I am afraid that something is going to happen with Korea and the market may crash again and I end up losing a big chunk of money. Some people say we are riding a bubble and that the market may crash like in 2008 or so.
What shall I do, and how can I get back in the stock market, I. E. Where shall I invest?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.!
I have 7 1/2 years before retirement and I want to maximize my returns before that happens.

 

[evilanne]

Mostro,

It sounds like you are pretty risk adverse. Nobody can give you an answer that will guarantee that you will make a lot of money or that you won't lose money. There are several subscriptions that I believe do make recommendations for their subscribers that you can use to make better decisions based on your risk tolerance but I have no personal experience with any of these. I would suggest you read and learn about different investment strategies so you can make informed investment decisions, even if you choose to subscribe to a service you should understand why you make any moves in your retirement account. You can also watch what others have done or are doing in the AutoTracker and see what those with higher rates of return are doing. Good Luck & Welcome to the forum!

 

[pmaloney]

You need to do some research and this is a great place to begin. The premium services are good and you can learn a lot by reading the individual posts. You don't mention specifics like how you plan to live after retirement. Do you own a home and is it paid off?

We are in a rising bull market and until that changes you should be in stocks C,S and I funds. If Korea/China and other wars break out there might be a panic but it is more likely that there will be a correction or corrections of 1 to 20 % but until things start to get negative you are missing out on generous earnings in a bull market.

I retired in 2013 and the market was great but I was minimally invested and withdrawing a lot from TSP since I waited a few years to start Social Security. After a while I realized I was being too timid and was not earning enough money in this great bull market. So I have learned that you can't really time the market and at my age of 67 I try to stay in stocks at least 60-70% most of the time and I usually make the amount I withdraw each month. I do this now knowing that I won't be able to make it during a market downturn which could last a year or two.

There is a lot of good information on this site but you should also look at some of Chris Ciovaccos's weekly videos. https://www.youtube.com/user/CiovaccoCapital. It provides a good explanation of how to use market averages to judge when the market is doing well and you should be invested and when to realize that the market is turning.

Best wishes!

 

[Tsunami]

I would suggest that you read articles like this one that show how news events do not affect the markets other than very short-term moves. The only thing to watch for in the big picture is when the economy is entering a recession, that's when it's time to get conservative. Currently there are a few warning signs but nothing that suggests it's time to go hide in a cave yet.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4107464-sentiment-speaks-either-learn-events-past-week-hopeless

 

[Stoplight]

Mostro,

Do some research into the TSP L funds, too...while you read and learn about all your options, those funds can put you in to various categories, at various percentages of "safe" vs. "risky" TSP funds !


Stoplight...

 

[Mostro]

Thank you all for the advice! I am avid to take risk with my investment, it is just the fact that I followed a colleague advice, pulled out all the money from the stock market into the G fund and now I do not now when and how I should invested back in the stock. waiting for that magical stock market opportunity I have been missing out big time. I understand that no one can guarantee me anything about the market's moves, for what I have noticed, it is difficult to predict its behavior, however I have felt lost in the woods during the past 10 months ever since, I made the move to the G funds, and I need to take control of my TSP. I understand there are different types of risk involved while investing in the TSP, however, I believe there should be a better way to make informed decisions when investing money in the TSP funds and I intend to learn it.
One of the members was wondering about other economic facts regarding myself; I own a house and it is paid for, my only debt so far, is a truck that I recently purchased thinking about having it paid for by the time I retire in 7 years. I am willing to take risk and that is the plan so far, however I have been thinking about holding 15% of the $ 211,000 in the G fund and then investing the rest in the market. The question is, When and which fund to invest? I have been considering subscribing to the TSP talk plus to start somewhere, since I feel I am falling behind the power curb...Definitely I understand I need to do a lot of research! All your advice is greatly appreciated!
Once again thank you!

 

[Mostro]

Tsunami,

Thanks for the article, I managed to read it and now I understand what you mean with by trusting news events solely as a mode of making financial decisions.

 

[Mcqlives]

I was in your shoes, with a lot longer to go, about 12 years ago. We almost all were at one time or another. My advice is the same as everyone elses. Read, read, read and read. There is not a magic indicator out there but, if you look at enough info, you get a "feel" for things. Good luck!

 

[pmaloney]

Sounds like you are going to do great, especially with your house paid off and I think that holding some percentage in the G fund is a good idea for peace of mind. :smile: