5th distribution day today in the SPX and NYSE is looking about ready to break it's little uptrend line at the double top level. The smart money traders are not getting any more bullish and have been lightening up while the dumb money p/c ratio still hangs below .55, a sign of complacency. Monday, oh it must be a Monday when the market just rises on light volume. It's crazy. It's at the point where all you need to do is buy the most riskiest, speculative small cap stock (or penny stock bank) on a Friday and then sell by the close on Monday and you've made money. How long is that going to last?
Unfortunately today Maria Bartiromo was on the Today Show so I was coaxed into getting a dose of CNBC this morning without having to watch CNBC. If this interview was anything like what CNBC is like (I haven't watched since Jan 2008) then I really feel bad for anybody who actually watches during the market hours. "Investors should consider getting partially back into the stock market, especially overseas stocks".
I see major trouble on the horizon and my most recent blogs entries (Bearish Equities, Still Bearish, Looking for a reason to be Bullish and Indicators) still apply, but the warnings I see right now are screaming even louder to watch out below. Even though the signs are in place, the market will continue to suck in more and more folks who ever so dearly feel the need to get themselves higher on a ranking list as if they were a mutual fund manager competing for clients.
Just as this party is ready to blow up, China decides to throw some 151 into the punch.
Have we already forgotten how the masses in China got steamrolled when the powers decided to allow the people to invest in stocks via brokerage accounts? That was right around the top just before it dropped, what, 60%? Now China is going to allow margin trading and short selling in a brand new futures market that will, "add liquidity". Great, just what we need, more day traders to "ease volatility".
On a side note, I think the fact the QE is ending has already been factored into the treasury market. I still say, where are investors going to go when the next quake hits global markets? Most likely the Dollar and US Treasuries, not high yield junk. Just a few months ago, investors would have sold on dollar strength but apparently it means nothing anymore.
I can see the T-Shirts now: This administration has taken a historical line of credit from future generations and all I got out of it was a silly stock market rally. This has been a boon for banks and trading desks but not for the people who are going to get stuck footing the bill.
It's all risk management these days, and I haven't seen an an edge on the long side for 2 months now. I may not be as active on the MB in the near future as I have been in the past, but I will make efforts to post when time permits. Thanks for reading, Take Care.
Unfortunately today Maria Bartiromo was on the Today Show so I was coaxed into getting a dose of CNBC this morning without having to watch CNBC. If this interview was anything like what CNBC is like (I haven't watched since Jan 2008) then I really feel bad for anybody who actually watches during the market hours. "Investors should consider getting partially back into the stock market, especially overseas stocks".
I see major trouble on the horizon and my most recent blogs entries (Bearish Equities, Still Bearish, Looking for a reason to be Bullish and Indicators) still apply, but the warnings I see right now are screaming even louder to watch out below. Even though the signs are in place, the market will continue to suck in more and more folks who ever so dearly feel the need to get themselves higher on a ranking list as if they were a mutual fund manager competing for clients.
Just as this party is ready to blow up, China decides to throw some 151 into the punch.
www.wsj.com
Have we already forgotten how the masses in China got steamrolled when the powers decided to allow the people to invest in stocks via brokerage accounts? That was right around the top just before it dropped, what, 60%? Now China is going to allow margin trading and short selling in a brand new futures market that will, "add liquidity". Great, just what we need, more day traders to "ease volatility".
On a side note, I think the fact the QE is ending has already been factored into the treasury market. I still say, where are investors going to go when the next quake hits global markets? Most likely the Dollar and US Treasuries, not high yield junk. Just a few months ago, investors would have sold on dollar strength but apparently it means nothing anymore.
I can see the T-Shirts now: This administration has taken a historical line of credit from future generations and all I got out of it was a silly stock market rally. This has been a boon for banks and trading desks but not for the people who are going to get stuck footing the bill.
It's all risk management these days, and I haven't seen an an edge on the long side for 2 months now. I may not be as active on the MB in the near future as I have been in the past, but I will make efforts to post when time permits. Thanks for reading, Take Care.
Prescient.
