05/08/26
Stocks continued to move away from the price of oil and on Thursday it was a back and forth follow the leader game as both were choppy over the course of the day, with oil closing higher and stocks closing lower on the day. More reversals and some outside reversal days on the charts, makes the analysis very interesting for the coming week. Yields and the dollar were part of those reversals.
The price of oil opened sharply lower on Thursday and that pushed the already stretched stocks even higher in early trading. The script flipped when oil bottomed just after 10 AM ET, and stocks peaked, and from there we had a different tone in the stock market.
By the close, WTC Oil was up almost 3% on the day as the 50-day EMA held again after another early test of the average. That created a positive outside reversal day on the 10-year Treasury yield (middle chart) and the dollar (3rd chart.) After hours on Thursday the oil futures were up another $2.
There were several charts that had open gaps from Wednesday's positive open, the 10-year yield and the dollar included, as well as the S&P 500 (C-fund.)
The S&P closed down moderately on the day but the top of the broken "F" flag (blue) held as support at the lows of the day. The open gap is within that flag. As I mentioned yesterday, F-flags tend to break down eventually, not up, so we'll see if that support holds or if the gap inside the flag gets filled.
The Dow Transportation index was down almost 1% yesterday, but more importantly it continues to fail to recapture the 20-day moving average. That is nine closes in a row below the average, but it is still in the neighborhood. The concern here is that gap that was filled near 19,500. It's a good sign on this chart that it held after being filled, but being the market leader, is it telling the other indices to go fill their open gaps from early April?
We will get the April Jobs Report this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 60,000 to 95,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
It's time for me to head back north for the summer so I may be unavailable for a couple of days, although I will check my email when I can. TommyIV (Thomas) should also be available if you email us at support@...
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) created a second negative outside reversal day on Thursday. The first was on May 4. As I have said, these don't always give instant gratification, but they have meaning, and usually it's bearish. The decline did fill in the open gap from prior in the week. Right now the rising support line is still holding.
ACWX (I-fund) also pulled back sharply and it is trying to fill in its open gap from earlier in the week. So far this is just short-term wiggling. It was a reversal day but not the more bearish outside reversal day we see on other charts. It did close back allow the February peak so technically is it a failed breakout at this level.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied early on Thursday as yields fell, but it too reversed lower after hitting some resistance.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks continued to move away from the price of oil and on Thursday it was a back and forth follow the leader game as both were choppy over the course of the day, with oil closing higher and stocks closing lower on the day. More reversals and some outside reversal days on the charts, makes the analysis very interesting for the coming week. Yields and the dollar were part of those reversals.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The price of oil opened sharply lower on Thursday and that pushed the already stretched stocks even higher in early trading. The script flipped when oil bottomed just after 10 AM ET, and stocks peaked, and from there we had a different tone in the stock market.
By the close, WTC Oil was up almost 3% on the day as the 50-day EMA held again after another early test of the average. That created a positive outside reversal day on the 10-year Treasury yield (middle chart) and the dollar (3rd chart.) After hours on Thursday the oil futures were up another $2.
There were several charts that had open gaps from Wednesday's positive open, the 10-year yield and the dollar included, as well as the S&P 500 (C-fund.)
The S&P closed down moderately on the day but the top of the broken "F" flag (blue) held as support at the lows of the day. The open gap is within that flag. As I mentioned yesterday, F-flags tend to break down eventually, not up, so we'll see if that support holds or if the gap inside the flag gets filled.
The Dow Transportation index was down almost 1% yesterday, but more importantly it continues to fail to recapture the 20-day moving average. That is nine closes in a row below the average, but it is still in the neighborhood. The concern here is that gap that was filled near 19,500. It's a good sign on this chart that it held after being filled, but being the market leader, is it telling the other indices to go fill their open gaps from early April?
We will get the April Jobs Report this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 60,000 to 95,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
It's time for me to head back north for the summer so I may be unavailable for a couple of days, although I will check my email when I can. TommyIV (Thomas) should also be available if you email us at support@...
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) created a second negative outside reversal day on Thursday. The first was on May 4. As I have said, these don't always give instant gratification, but they have meaning, and usually it's bearish. The decline did fill in the open gap from prior in the week. Right now the rising support line is still holding.
ACWX (I-fund) also pulled back sharply and it is trying to fill in its open gap from earlier in the week. So far this is just short-term wiggling. It was a reversal day but not the more bearish outside reversal day we see on other charts. It did close back allow the February peak so technically is it a failed breakout at this level.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied early on Thursday as yields fell, but it too reversed lower after hitting some resistance.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
