MARKETTIMERS ALLOCATION

[Guest]

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My allocations:

27 Jan 04 - 100% G (based on historic bull market runs in bear markets on average of 10 months). Remember bear markets historically last about 11 years NOT four years.

13 Aug 04 - 85% G, 5%, S, 5% C, 5% I (market oversold, everyone turned bearish, MSM has a story we are in a bear market, Jim Cramer turned bearish on 12 Aug).

30 Aug 04 - 70% G, 10% S, 10% C, 10% I (oversold rally on low volume trend).

01 Sep 04 - 100% G (job report on 3 Sep I believe will be the end to the rally)

Prior to 27 Jan 04 my allocation was 10%, C, 50% S, 40% I fund since 13 March 2003. (15% tax rate on stockdividends/cap gains- artificial stimuli for the market). Just likeduring theRegan administration.

After1 Sep my concern is the, 2 Sep Intel earnings report and the 3 Sep employment report, inflation, slowing GDP, building corporate inventories, election, fed tightening,winter heating for oil pricesand slowing earnings...I believe this run is a low volume over sold bounce. Historically the third fed tightening knocks stocks down (remember before the last Bush election). I believe oil over $40 is not factored into stocks P/Es yet. Contraction moving forward of P/Es rate to historic norms. Raising interest rates will hurt small cap stocks due to higher interest on loas to grow their business.

My new money goes to G Fund because you will notice on TSP deposit days the marketnormally goesup. I like to buy on down days. I am hoping Monday is a down day from profit taking over the weekend. It is the close out of the Olympics and hopefully nothing happens there. Also Hirsch Organization has a story not to sell on Mondays because since 1928 on average the market is down on Mondays from people over the weekend getting nervous and putting in sell orders in mutual funds.

Sorry to include my outside TSP dealings with this board. With the talk of Sirrus, etc I forgot what board I was on.

Wildcard - Intel reports on 2 Sep, I think it will be bad (again). Remember last time they report...I believe that was the day the DOW was down 147 and NASDAQ 40.

Have a great weekend. Happy hunting!

MT

 

[tsptalk]

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MT -

Let me know if you want to track your account here with our other members.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/

I'll set it up for you.

 

[Guest]

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Hate to be a flip flopper but I am going 100% at the Monday closing price. There is just a cloud starting Tuesday and I want to be in my hole to wait and see if I can peek my head up and start to nibble again. I really want to bank my gains from 13 Aug. With the news the Fed is going to raise rates again no matter what oil or inflation does in September is not factor in yet to the market.

Not listed Intel gives a earnings update. I see bad news with raising inventories and that will put a damper on the market - just like last report.

The risk reward ratio is not in our favor...in my opinion.

Please if you have been watching the investment professionals over the weekend they are everything is great buy, buy, buy now while it is cheap. Problem...it is not cheap P/Es are extremely high and high oil prices are not factored in yet. P/Es are still based on $25 per barrel not $40 plus. It looks like a lot of new buying is coming into the market on Monday - I want to sell into them. Good luck all.

I also listened to a couple radio shows and they feel we hit the bottom for the year and will rally the rest of the year...the trend for the year is a little bump up (not going to the previous bump up and then off to a lower low). Still to much bullishness out there.



Key events in the week ahead

• Monday morning, the Commerce Department will report on personal income and spending for July. Economists, on average, expect income rose 0.5 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in June, according to Briefing.com. Spending is expected to rise 0.7 percent, after falling 0.7 percent in June.
• (good news) - my stock holds will go to G on this day.
  
  
  
  
• The GOP convention will begin Monday evening in New York and end Thursday night with President Bush's nomination acceptance speech.
• Then the protests will start in earnest - Bad news.
  
  
  
  
• Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, a private research firm, will release its closely watched gauge of consumer confidence for August. Economists expect the index to dip to 103 from 106.1 in July. (bad news)
  
  
  
  
• Also on Tuesday, NAPM-Chicago will release its index of August business activity in the Chicago region. Economists expect the index to fall to 60 from 64.7 in July. (bad news)
  
  
  
  
• Wednesday morning brings the Institute for Supply Management's gauge of national manufacturing activity in August. Economists expect the index to dip to 59.9 from 62 in July. (bad news)
  
  
  
  
• Thursday morning, the Labor Department will report on new jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 28. Claims rose to 343,000 in the week ending Aug. 21. (last thursday was bad because of a bad report) Repeat?
  
  
  
  
• In a separate report, the department will publish its revised estimate of productivity growth in the second quarter. Economists expect productivity grew at a revised 2.8 percent rate, versus an initial reading of 2.9 percent. (bad news)
  
  
  
  
• Friday morning brings the August report on unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect payrolls grew by 150,000 jobs, compared with 32,000 in July. The jobless rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at 5.5 percent. (could be very horrible). WIth the unemployment claims raising I see a miss again. Bad thing 150K is the amount of new people coming into the job market - if we can not even make that job growth the economy is not growing but stagnant - in my opionion.
  
  
  
  
• Later Friday morning, the ISM releases its gauge of service-sector activity in August. That index is expected to dip to 62 from 64.8 in July. (more bad news)

Running into resistance to the up side now:

 

[Guest]

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I should of bailed last Friday. I got greedy. The good news of oil prices nearly a $1 a barrel and consumer spending picking up is the only good news of the week and the market dropped pretty hard today (30 Aug). The sell off the end of the day does not look good for the rest of the week.I believe that will continue. I was hoping that positive consumer spending report plus nothing happening at the Olympics would of continued the oversold rally for one more day. Intel came out in the morning Announces Milestone in Shrinking Size of Transistors to Power Next-Generation Chips and the SOXX (conductor index) dropped 2.28%. I feel good news is bad news and bad news is a reason to hammer a stock or sector. Winn Dixie, Tyson, Ryder, etc, etc got slammed dunked today. Bear market?

My goal is capital preservation at this point and making gains later. I am happy at this point to get the .01 cent every five to seven days in the G fund and not to get ripsawed with small gain, small gain and then large lose.

The F Fund looks like it is getting ready to trap some folks. I would put cash in there but with the fed raising interest rates the NAV "should" drop. The 10 year treasure has dropped 4.95 to 4.18 yield in a rising interest rate environment. I believe the reason for this is the energy longs are putting money into bonds and not reallocating into another stock sector.

I feel very good about going 100% G Fund at this point. This feels like the last seven times the market turned up...we went lower.

Tom, moving over Thursday? What is your feelings on the job report? That is a very brave move. The last job report the DOW went down 169 and NASDAQ lost 44. I could see putting money into that wreck but not the day prior?

Happy hunting!

MT

 

[cajun]

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Which days are TSP deposit days?

 

[tsptalk]

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cajun wrote:

Which days are TSP deposit days?

I think it depends on the day you get paid. Mine seems to getdeposited every other Thursday, getting the Thursday closing price.

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

cajun wrote:

Which days are TSP deposit days?

I think it depends on the day you get paid. Mine seems to getdeposited every other Thursday, getting the Thursday closing price.

I'm AD, and mine gets deposited once a month- about 1 day after the 1st payday.