Market Weather & Tea Leaves

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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Today-Tomorrow Stock Plan [February 27-28, 2005]


Market Behavior, and weather.

-> www.businessweek.com
-> www.reuters.com
-> www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Weather: Good economic data should continue the advance. A breakout >>1213 (S&P) with volume may restore the bull primary movement. Breakdown would retain trading ranges [1213-1163].


Trends, charts, and tea leaves.

-> http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp

Charts [WYS may or may not be WYG]: Direction was up 3 days prior, closed Friday 2 points (S&P) shy of upside range breakout. CMF money flow was strong. Moving averages were crossing bullish. PSAR indicator changed to green.

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending Friday 25th. Added: 20dMA, PSAR, RSI, and MACD.

Tea leaves: Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.


Hold 'Em; Fold 'Em.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 for market signal. Caution while in trading range. Check AM for activity indicating: buy, hold, or sell.
 
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Feburary 28 Closing

Weather: Squall line of bad news (tension, slumps, & sell off) delays upside breakout (of h.h: 1213).Market stays in trading range 1213 (resistance) -1164 (support),S&P.

Charts: added 1 red candlestick. Stocks opening with gap lower, keyed the decline from 1210 S&P to 1918, butrecovered to close at 1204.

Tea Leaves: Still read - Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 neutral.
 
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March 1 Closing

Weather: Some good news today (chips, mfg., and data). Market stays near top of current trading range; S&P closing 1210, 3 points short of h.h. andresistance level.

Charts: added 1 white candlestick. Pennant forms hinting of posible breakout.

Tea Leaves: Still read - Beware of muck-et: market stuck in trading range.

Remarks: Holding 50-50 neutral.
 
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March 2 Closing

Weather: Initially looked bad, then good, but, advance spun out in oil supply data.

Charts: S&P regained 1210. Pennant holding. See addendum. (Tks. Teckno!)

Tea Leaves: Soiled by oil; re-brewing.

Remarks: Holding 25-75 moderate. Transfer depends on AM market
 
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The S&P hit 1215 during the day, so it has already shown it can move above the resistance. Whether it can close above it is a key question.

Good data tomorrow will trigger that, and that's what I believe we shall get.
 
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Crude, natural gas, heating oil and the metals are "HEATING UP". Actually the metals are molten right now.

I do not believe the productivity report (1.5%) will meet or beat. You will hear something like "bad weather, cold weather" or some other crap for the reason why it missed.

Intial claims - when does the m&a activity start showing up?

Mike I think you been in G so long you are getting inpatient. This may be a count to 10 thing.

Just my .02. The crude nearly 54...this may not be the time to get back in the water. **theme from Jaws here**

But just wanted to provide food for thought.
 
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Of course if I was that other person, "I would advise you to get back in the market now it is cheap". Did you notice whenever that person said that there was a big sell off within days.

Glad that other person left. That other person was pissing me off. :P OK you advised to buy before a sell off ok...two times..hmm, three times...shut the hell up :shock:.
 
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The unemployment claims chart - both for weekly and 4 week rolling averages - has a clear downward trend (fewer filings). I posted it in my account talk and will also post it here: http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm

Another thing I'm keeping in mind here is that the S&P hit an intraday high of 1215 - that's extremely close to the 52 week high. Good news = breakout. So-so news = resumption of the trading range, which will limit downside risk.
 
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Yes, but what about M&A??? When do those lovely pink slips start hitting the system. Just in the textile industry alone there has been over 60K of lay off this year. I do not have time to research this job report like I did the last one...however the wild card is M&As. That is the trump card.

Just wanted to point that out to you. Would hate for you to come out of G and be shark attacked by a surprise. No surprises while I am on this board!

My .02.
 
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The M&A layoffs would be spotted in the initial claims being filed for unemployment benefits. This data has been improving steadily for quite awhile now, so the M&A stuff thus far simply hasn't had a major impact there - or else its impact has been spread out over a longer period and is simply going unnoticed.

Best case scenario: the good GDP report is followed by good initial claims and payroll... that gives us the recipe for a nice breakout. The initial claims data alone might do it, if it's good enough.

In any case, I'm young enough to take a risk now and then. If I'm right, I come out way ahead. If I'm wrong, I take a modest hit on a relatively small retirement account. :^
 
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Mike wrote:
If I'm wrong, I take a modest hit on a relatively small retirement account. :^
I hope you are referring to:
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and not a:
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because they really hurt.

Have a good one Mike!
 
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Mike wrote:
Good data tomorrow will trigger that, and that's what I believe we shall get.
The estimates are for ~ 225,000 new jobs. Remember too high or too low (+/- 50,000) tends to hurt the stocks in the days ahead. The closer we get to that number, the better for the market.
 
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tsptalk wrote:
The estimates are for ~ 225,000 new jobs. Remember too high or too low (+/- 50,000) tends to hurt the stocks in the days ahead. The closer we get to that number, the better for the market.
Short field landing, Tom. We either peg the numbers or we're off the end of the runway. Ouch!

Market numbers are breaking through the resistance again today, but crude is just under $53. OPEC hinting at $80 in the future. Wow!

They will have to reconfigure gas pumps to larger numbers. Maybe we should be investing in horse futures?
 
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I got 160-180K on the job report. I have so many shorts and options going I do not have time to research. But it will be on the low side of estimates. The productivity report supports my thought process - more with less.

That may make the yield invert. Lets hope know.

Mr Bubbles had his shot - he fired a blank.
 
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Market numbers are breaking through the resistance again today, but crude is just under $53. OPEC hinting at $80 in the future. Wow!


I love it when the talking heads scare everyone. It only took oil since the beginning of production this long to get to $53 and now were going to $80.:DIgnore it tomorrow it may pay off. I just visited with a young woman that came back from Iraq that informed me that there were lakes of oil there and that production was limited but they were still producing. She stated some of it was from fractured Oil lines, but the locals were telling her there was so much of it, it comes to the surface. She stated salt was another item that was very abundant.
 
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cowboy wrote:
Market numbers are breaking through the resistance again today, but crude is just under $53. OPEC hinting at $80 in the future. Wow!
Crude has been over 54 for the past several hours.

The reason OPEC is hinting at $80 is they are running out. The tap is going dry. Iran is desperate fora reactornot for defense but because they are running out of oil and their population is car happy. If you have ever been to Tehran it is like Hong Kong for the number of cars. They need the nuclear reactorto replace electrical power currently being produced by oil. I have read that they have been doing rolling blackouts to conserve.

Crude will be over 64 by this November.

P/Es are based on 30 oil and fed data is based on 25 oil. Because our leading economist sees oil at these prices as "temporary". That was his predication last May when oil went above $37. Mr Bubbles he is a national treasure.
 
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