11/01/12
After two weather related days off, something that hasn't happened since the 1800's, the market opened and basically resumed what was happening last week, which was bounce around but close within a tight range of the prior day's close. The Dow lost 11-points on the day.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0186%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.25%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
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[/TD]
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Here are the final returns for the month of October:
The S&P 500 closed up 22 cents and look how tight the closes have been over the last 5 trading days.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That is somewhat surprising considering the damage from Hurricane Sandy and dollar estimates that have been thrown around to clean it up - not to mention the negative economic impact of the heavily populated area.
The Dow is in a similar situation and the only thing I can think of is that, with the important jobs report coming this Friday, the last one before next week's election, investors are reluctant to make any big bets with so much on the line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Of course every time I say that the market makes a big move in one direction or the other, and that could happen today. The question is, which way? The bear flag-like formations suggest it could be a downward move but some indicators like the put / call ratios are actually showing the smart money expecting a move up, while the dumb money is expecting a move down. Normally a bullish sign.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar has been in a tight range for the last 7 weeks and it is currently near the top end of the range. Should the UUP move down to test the lower end of the range again, we could see the stocks market get a boost.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
If the UUP breaks through the top of the range stocks will have some weight on their shoulders.
Seasonality suggests the next few days have a strong positive bias and we could say - yea but, we have a jobs report tomorrow and then Election Day is on the 4th trading day in November this year so it's different this time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Well, guess what? There is a jobs report on the first Friday of every November, and Election Day is always the first Tuesday in November - although the presidential election comes only every four years. But Novembers during presidential election years (orange) historically do better than non-presidential election years (purple).
Halloween is over, but the market should be giving us a trick or a trick over the next few days. I don' think it will be neutral for very much longer.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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