Market Drop in early Nov???

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The_Technician

The_Technician

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U guys know I love to look ahead....I believe I seen another light onthat says get out by Nov 8 or just before.....its related to the Headless Horseman.....he may be coming to see you in the night if you are in the markets....:shock:

Could be we're going to 1100 or so on the S&P....:shock:


:dude:
 
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That would take some external force ! the sp500 is trading at a low p/e of 14...

what force are you looking at ?

Skip
 
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The Technician wrote:
U guys know I love to look ahead....I believe I seen another light onthat says get out by Nov 8 or just before.....its related to the Headless Horseman.....he may be coming to see you in the night if you are in the markets....:shock:

Could be we're going to 1100 or so on the S&P....:shock:


:dude:
Click to expand...
naaaaaaah may see a dip this week with the boyz in the white house being indicted (prolly happen tomm. me thinks)and amzn missing tonight.

that mid teen pe ratio for the spx is a sign we are bouncing on the floor here.

jmho

tekno

i'll be back in soon buying with both hands...LOL
 
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Skip wrote:
That would take some external force ! the sp500 is trading at a low p/e of 14...

what force are you looking at ?

Skip
Click to expand...


I've been trading, selling actually,S&P options for a few years now and just started testing a strategy of $2.00 premiums. Like selling insurance, I bet that S&P won't go to 1110 by november expiration, the 18th, and I keep the 2.00 premium x 250$. I will test closer levels tonite....1120, 1130 etc. My broker, whose been in the business for many years, since they started selling s&p options on CBOE 1985 or so?..says this is at least 90% accurate
 
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Well Skip it is Price/Earnings ratio.....14 can go any which a way with prices or with earnings.....

But thats not the reason and some of the time isn't....

Lets just say, I seen an indication of a possiblity......with the markets so shaky as today, I'd give it better than a 65% chance....

:^
 
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I believein the early drop that we may getsoon, we could see a 6-10% drop in the S fund....similar drops should occur in the C and I funds as well....

Take care of walking on the edge, you could fall off.....

The Headless Horseman is coming...

:dude:
 
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Could todays market action be disturbing....???? :shock:

:sHalloween is just around the corner.....:l

:dude:The Technician (aka "Dancing With Wolves", and now "Carnac the Magnificient" (thank you Norman (NNuut))
 
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The Technician wrote:
Could todays market action be disturbing....???? :shock:

:sHalloween is just around the corner.....:l

:dude:The Technician (aka "Dancing With Wolves", and now "Carnac the Magnificient" (thank you Norman (NNuut))
Click to expand...

yep the brokersr selling a bunch of putz with confidence. who do they screw over when that happens???:)

come on techjust buy a little....i personally guarantee a rally in the next two years that will knock yer sox off....LOL
 
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Technician wrote:

Could todays market action be disturbing....???? :shock:
Click to expand...

The trend is still uncertain, and thebig money is waiting toget a clearer picture. Could see one more pullback, but 1170's have held up as a pretty good support level. Big talk aboutthe future of Bush's tax cuts and interest rates again. The market will not like this uncertainty and could give us one more buying op....... Need the break-out into the 1200's and test it's support to get things moving...

That's my take anyhow!!!!!:cool:

The markets appear to be meeting some resistance at this point. That resistance ismost pronounced at the 1200 level on the SPX.

As I noted in my White Paper which I sent to you earlier this week and published on SafeHaven.com, we are in a period of oscillation rather than trending. We may decide to adopt the oscillation model soon. We will give you an update by Friday mid-day.

If you look at the NDX (and SPX)daily charts (oscillation model), it is suggesting that thesequentially lower peak is in and the next portion of the oscillating wave will be down (Sell). However, the NDX weekly chart (momentum model)is telling us that the NDX is calling for a rally (Buy signal).

Because we are likely still in oscillation, not trending mode, we must choose to disregard what the weekly trend model is telling us. This is a normal course of action when trying to "listen" to what the market is saying. Best to stay in Cash for the Market Listener Trader.
Click to expand...



 
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sp support held at 1191. traded a high of 1204

That's the trading range for now.... Earning after the bell were
about 50/50...
 
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I've been looking closer at the situation....I believe when we get this hit, the C and I funds will be hit the worse....S fund will take a hit but it will suffer less...;)

Looking for a possibility to play in the S fund over the next half year or so....:^

I think at this time it is significant to remember we just failed to cross the 200 day average on this last attempt.....if we don't get past it soon, then the drop is expected.

:dude:
 
imported post

Technician wrote:

Could todays market action be disturbing....???? :shock:
Click to expand...

Some of the Tech's I follow agree with you... They are thinking the technicals are favoring a another test of the lows before the rally..... Could be another buying Op soon.... The short term trend of the market is still unclear!!!!


Thursday 10/27/05 Morning Comment

There is a term which which is used by Point & Figure chartists: "Squaring the base". It means that a basing formation is not complete and that prices must come back down to test the lows in order to give it the "right" look.
I have felt that the structure of the correction was not complete and that prices should retrace one more time before a resumption of the up-trend could take place. I believe that we saw the beginning of this yesterday.

For the total move into the final lows, the same targets given before (1150-1160) are being re-affirmed.
The time period involved? When we get to that target! (2 or 3 weeks? ) This is the most logical forecast for now. If something is altered it along the way, I'll let you know!

Short-term, the first target is 1181-1186, but there is an impending news release which could have a market impact. We'll have to get this behind us!
Click to expand...
 
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