Market Comments

[coolhand]

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Tom -

Great comments today. Youreally are helping me to gain a better understanding of market dynamics.

To All:

I started a journey about 3 months ago when I discoveredTom's website. What Isaw was an opportunity to gain a better understanding ofan often puzzling andmysterious world, namely investing.In those 3 short months I have far exceeded my expectations.

My own learning philosophy is one of having an open mind to all opinions and ideas and toobjectivelyevaluate everything I learn.I make no judgements when it comes to one's personal investment stategy. My need to understand may go deeper than many, but this website affords that opportunity.

I can never be a simple "buy and hold" investor anymore. This much I know. I am however, trying to synthesize a lot of information, but I'm learning quick. Heck the first semester isn't even over yet.

Tom created this website because he wanted to help others andhe has certainly helped me.Without his guidance and insight I would still be adrift. It is very obvious to me that Tom cares about us andI consider him not only a mentor, buta friendwho will always have my respect and support regardless of what the market does.

Now let's figure this market out and make some money!!! LOL

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks coolhand! I appreciate the feedback. It's good to know the site is helping. :^

 

[Rolo]

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<clap, clap, clap>

 

[pyriel]

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So where are we heading from Monday???

 

[teknobucks]

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Tom et al:

as you all know the stock market acts in both predictable and un-predictable ways. to hold anyone accountable for a fall or to even thank someone for a good tip which paid off is the lunaticfringe of investing/gambling.

we all enjoy this site and find the opinons of othersinteresting...hell no one would come back it this was not the case.we have had several poor sessions here.... smh is off 7% from jan3.:X

the ? is when do we getthe obvious rebound?:^

http://jwmelton.com/frank/2.gif

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK TOM...DO NOT GET DISCOURAGED. some great days are just ahead.



tekno

ps: most of you folks have a better grip on the state of the markets than do the paid analysts....The market is trying to fool everyone again! selling a bottom isnot the best plan for us now.

 

[vectorman]

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US markets closed on monday, Martin Luther King, Jr birthday. May also effect TSP changes on monday for tuesday. Federal government holiday.

 

[tsptalk]

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teknobucks wrote:

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK TOM...DO NOT GET DISCOURAGED. some great days are just ahead.

Thanks tekno. I've been doing this too long to get discouraged. I worry more about the newer readers who jump in when the market falls. I can usually judge by their reactions what the market is going to do.

My favorite was back in mid-August when someone emailed me with this gem...

"I think a drunken monkey with a dartboard would do better than you. "

:l I knew the bottom was upon us....And of course it was. The person who wrote that is still getting the email alerts.

The time I worry is when I get those atta-boy pats on the back emails. The market usually does some humbling in a hurry.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.safehaven.com/article-2446.htm

time to sell? NOT

tekno

 

[quenchmaster]

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Good stuff guys, I think I can speak for all the interested parties looking for information to help figure this stuff out and maybe provide some insight to increase earning on our TSP's. Much appreciated. Thanks Tom for providing the forum.

 

[Show-me]

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Hey All,

I have been reading a lot of articles about the New Year. Teckno has a lot of info. out there. I am getting a majority consensus that we MAY have a sideways year. Some predict 3-5% gain for the S&P 500 for the year. The consensus is also that the market will be very erratic. One analyst said that money can be made but you will have to play the peaks and valleys because that's the way the market will be this year. Some days up and some days down. Some have predicted double digit gains in the S&P 500 this year. Those are a lot fewer than the Bears. Hear a lot of talk about the real estate bubble popping too. Am I read articles from the wrong people?

How does everyone feel about the market? (Crappy start to the year, but that can change.)

Steady growth or seesaw? (If seesaw, boy we are going to have to watch close.)

How about interest rates?

Big jumps or measured pace? (Greenie said in Germany if you don’t know what’s coming next your a fool.) I paraphrased that.

China will have more open trade this year especially in the textile industry. The also have about 20,000 people working around the clock on the Three Gorges Dam Project. “A major justification for the dam is the power it will generate from its 26 700-megawatt turbine generators, which equals the energy produced by 18 nuclear plants or the burning of 40 million tons of coal.” WOW Fully online in 2009. This will increase their ability to do more manufacturing. They are courting every oil producing nation. Talk about a big consumer. And the Chinese people are getting a hunger for a consumer driven economy. Ask Wal-mart. O they are getting fatter too. The Health Ministry reported a few months ago that the Chinese are getting fatter and more heath related illness. Can you imagine if they become as consumer driven as us. Cars are another story all together. Don't forget India. Their getting a little jingle in their pockets too.

I’m not trying to bum anyone out but all of the analysts are bumming me out. I am going to stay optimistically cautious. Just a few random thoughts from a Missouri boy. Remember ya gota Show-me in Missouri. lol

 

[tsptalk]

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Show-me wrote:

How does everyone feel about the market? (Crappy start to the year, but that can change.)

Steady growth or seesaw? (If seesaw, boy we are going to have to watch close.)

I think it is going to be a lot like the first half of 2004. No trend so you buy the oversold market and sell the overbought. It's a lot easier said than done. I may come up with a buy/sellindicator for these short term oscillating markets to help me keep the emotion out of exactly when to buy and sell. That has been my thorn. I can pick the intermediate term pretty well. It's these short term wiggles that have been tough.

 

[Show-me]

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tsptalk wrote:

It's a lot easier said than done. I may come up with a buy/sellindicator for these short term oscillating markets to help me keep the emotion out of exactly when to buy and sell.

O brother did you hit the nail on the head. My emotion gauge has been pegged at "Run for the G Fund" for over a week now. I'm hanging in there in there for now.