lacaprup's account talk

[lacaprup]

Hello to all. I've been a member here for several years now, but have never made an account talk thread. I've done very well in some years (23.54% in 2010), but not so well in others (only 4% in 2011). In general, I use my own feeling based around political actions and a sound base in what other memebers are doing. In particular, I pay attentiont to ContrarianJeff, gonefishin and wwwtractor. I suppose my best investment advice is that you never have to watch your money disappear. I tried to tell this to co-workers in 2008 who saw thousands and thousands of dollars get flushed down the toilet (not found on the site, but I was actually up 6.5% in 2008). YOU CONTROL YOUR MONEY! Make it work for you.

As of COB on the 21st of Feb, I was 100% G. I think the market is due for a 10% correction before we go forward.

In my personal investments, I am big into commodities. UGL, COPX and SWC are all in my portfolio right now, and GAZ made 20% this year before I sold it on a stop loss order this morning.

Good luck to all, and I hope I can help someone.

 

[lacaprup]

Yesterday saw .33, .58, and .65% moves for the C, S and I funds. That leaves another 9.5%, on average, for each fund to sink before this bull has a proper leash put on it. As I said above, you don't have to watch your money disappear. This, to me, is a logical/predictable correction that has seen a market shoot almost straight up since November 28th, and has been in a significant upward trend since October 3rd. If a Greek deal couldn't move the market any higher - a market that has run up about 10% in just YTD trading - then you have to assume that the market needs a correction. Things do not go up invariably without some corrections. We're due for one. Good luck to all.

 

[lacaprup]

So far my prediction is looking foolish, but today dawns dark for the markets. Europe is now sending out bad news after last week's Greek deal. Let's see where this goes.
U.S. Stocks Fall - WSJ.com

 

[lacaprup]

There just seems to be nothing that is going to have a huge effect on the market right now, and the 200SMA is starting to tick up. It's to the point where I wish Israel would just get it over with and strike Iran. I backed into the G on 21 Feb, and - for the first time - I am starting to question that move. I'll give it one more week before I jump back in.

 

[FAAM]

There just seems to be nothing that is going to have a huge effect on the market right now, and the 200SMA is starting to tick up. It's to the point where I wish Israel would just get it over with and strike Iran. I backed into the G on 21 Feb, and - for the first time - I am starting to question that move. I'll give it one more week before I jump back in.

Yes, Iran (& China, Russia, & N.Korea) can be very trying but Patience seems the best virtue now from what we know by reportings.
You sound like you arn't way far off from retirement... otherwise perhaps ok to take more risk with market. Now I've been TSP for 20-yrs and only 6-10 years from retirement... I put all in the market and let it ride till '07 when I moved to L2020 for 2-years. Now I move it around more freq. with IFTs, but I'm getting more & more into risk intollerance myself (keeping 25%-to-75% in G w/some in F as a basis). I was in w/both legs & about 2/23/12 went in (C & I) to my belly, but jumped right back to just legs on overnight bad-vibes news. Now with new IFTs I think I'll go back in to belly or chest and watch closely.

 

[lacaprup]

I was beginning to think I lost my ability to predict a downturn. It looks like it's finally happening. Wait for -10% across the board before going back in. Nothing can go straight up even in an election year.

On a personal note, I sold my UGL shares today. I ran up about a 10% profit, but I am now bearish on gold short term. I will 100% be back into gold before the year is up though. Hard money is always a good bet when central banks pront money.

 

[lacaprup]

S&P500 has now corrected 2.5% from it's recent high of 1378. Still a ways to go IMO. I buy back in when the S&P is much closer to 1300.

 

[lacaprup]

Not too proud to say I was wrong. 50% S, 50%C as of COB today. Let's hope I didn't miss out.