Stocks opened higher on Thursday but things fizzled by mid-morning and the indices floundered in slightly negative territory most of the day. The Nasdaq and small caps saw some stiff profit taking after a series of strong days. The strong close was a positive, but volume was on the light side on the eve of the jobs report.
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The jobs report comes out this morning (Friday) at 8:30 AM and estimates are looking for a gain of 195,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%. Any large surprise or miss could obviously be a market mover.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is still holding above the 188 breakout area. That is not a drop dead support area since anything above the 20-day EMA is bullish so there is some wiggle room, even if the jobs report posts a big miss.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 had a bad day yesterday but it did find support during the early pullback to the 50-day EMA on Thursday morning. But without a move above the previous high near 90.50 and 91.0, this index may need some help. No one wants a leader that lags in a bull market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps also struggled on Thursday and is in the same situation being in need of a higher high. Otherwise, the early March highs may turn out to be a peak.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar did break to the upside of its pennant formation as we suspected, and pushed into its open gap, but it has some room on the upside before that gap gets filled. The rally also produced a small open gap on the downside which could get filled first, but the jobs report will likely determine which gets filled first.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds are still holding in their trading range and I am getting rather bored with them. Again, the jobs report could trigger a breakout or breakdown if there is a big surprise outside of the estimates.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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