Jobs Report - Any Guesses?

[tsptalk]

Estimates for the September 2012 jobs report are in the neighborhood of a gain of 120,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.1%

Any predictions?

 

[Bquat]

Estimates for the September 2012 jobs report are in the neighborhood of a gain of 120,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.1%

Any predictions?

133,000 because that is what's needed to say the economy is improving.

 

[clester]

Estimates for the September 2012 jobs report are in the neighborhood of a gain of 120,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.1%

Any predictions?

150,000

 

[wvango]

113,000

 

[Sensei]

Whatever it is, Europe is certainly buying the rumor. So they must be expecting it to be below expectations, because that would help Romney, which should, in turn, help stocks. Right?

 

[James48843]

124,000 and rate drops to 8.0 is my guess.

We'll know in about 15 minutes.

 

[Warrenlm]

Zandi says 110k. Please enter him.

 

[law87]

Whatever it is, Europe is certainly buying the rumor. So they must be expecting it to be below expectations, because that would help Romney, which should, in turn, help stocks. Right?

? i thought Europe up is because the announcement of huge bond buying

 

[law87]

Zandi says 110k. Please enter him.

whats the expectation?

 

[James48843]

Just released-it's official :

114,000 new jobs added, and unemployment rate FALLS to 7.8%.

[h=1]Unemployment rate decreases to 7.8% in September;
payroll employment rises by 114,000[/h]Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012


The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing
but changed little in most other major industries.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1
and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent),
adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month.
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and
Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at
4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)
....

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1
percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Read more: Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

[James48843]

Futures markets jump on the news. S&P500 futures now up 0.43% in pre-market trading.

 

[clester]

Futures markets jump on the news. S&P500 futures now up 0.43% in pre-market trading.

Conspiracy theorists are coming out.

 

[Frixxxx]

Conspiracy theorists are coming out.

Have to. How do you add a little over 100K in jobs, and yet millions of people still looking? My math teacher needs to be fired. Oh wait, participation rate dropped too! Next statement goes to the political forum.

 

[nnuut]

Bloomberg says the 7.8% is QUESTIONABLE? NAH! Nobody would purposely Cook the Books.:suspicious:
Highlights
"Today's report includes a surprise drop in the unemployment rate-but it is statistically questionable."
Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Bloomberg says the 7.8% is QUESTIONABLE? NAH! Nobody would purposely Cook the Books.:suspicious:
Highlights
"Today's report includes a surprise drop in the unemployment rate-but it is statistically questionable."
Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

That QE3 sure worked quickly didn't it?

 

[nnuut]

Looks like we don't need QE3, cancel it now, 7.8% is just fine.

 

[Frixxxx]

Wow, look at the participation levels drop!
courtesy of:link

 

[Warrenlm]

LOL. Why is today's report questionable? It's on schedule. The Media was told to harp on 8% so under 8% will provide a headline.

What happened in March 2010 to cause a minor uptick? Some doubt about benefits or deadline that caused some more to seek work?

 

[Frixxxx]

LOL. Why is today's report questionable? It's on schedule. The Media was told to harp on 8% so under 8% will provide a headline.

What happened in March 2010 to cause a minor uptick? Some doubt about benefits or deadline that caused some more to seek work?

Mainly political....but also, if it swings broadly it's suspect, people who are out of the market because of this indicator may be a little upset. But, it should only carry a "little" weight since it's a lagging indicator.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Looks like we don't need QE3, cancel it now, 7.8% is just fine.

I agree, but the actual jobless rate is closer to 12% than 8%. Why they take out those who are no longer receiving unemployment benefits, but haven't found a job is beyond me.