jdphx's Account Talk

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jdphx

jdphx

Member
Ok... So I've been a member here for about a year.. with a long
time prior to that as a lurker. Never had the gumption to start my own
thread before.

Lazy I guess... and I spend so much time reading all of your threads,
and learning, that I wonder if I have anything useful to add.

But I have a notion, that needs room to discuss. And it would be plain rude
to hijack someone else's thread to open that discussion. So here it is.

I was always taught (and the "pro's" still preach it) that as you get nearer
to retirement, the less of your $$ should be invested in stocks. True for
individual stocks, and peeps like Birch maybe.

My big day is 12/2014, and as far as TSP, I just don't think that is the
prudent strategy. We can move all in, or all out on a day's notice. So how
can NOT being mostly or all in be a bad thing?

For the historians... What is the biggest 1 day loss? Or average of the
10 biggest down days? How much is too much? I think I've just had an
eyeopening!!!

jd :cool:
 
What is that makes you think that in retirement you can afford to not be in the market to one degree or another?

2013 is my year, I'll be 66, and I don't think I will ever NOT be in the market. Remember you need to make a minimum of 4-5% ROI just to retain your principal amount and cover any withdrawals or your principal will dwindel. Then there is inflation to deal with get the point?
 
I retired Jan 2nd 2010, left my TSP balance in the TSP and still am trying to build it higher until I need the money. NO I don't spend all of my time in the "G" that's STUPID!! I am a little more conservative but not that much I think their draw down method only applies if you are LONG the majority of the year.
Nice hearing from you, Contribute as much as you can while you can.
Best of luck:D
Norman
 
I don't think it is so much a single days loss you need to be concerned about. I ran the numbers and I seem to remember a swing of 10% on day. Can't remember if it was up or down. I think it was up but there where many downs that were pretty bad in '08. Many were consecutive.

The problem as I saw it was that some people, especially those nearing retirement that had a sizable amount would lose 3% one day then 2% the next. This adds up to quite a bit when you have a lot in. They they would tell themselves they had to stay in to make that money back. They ended up riding it into the ground because it just kept getting worse and that reaffirmed their belief that they had to stay in to get their money back.

Someone posted on a message here I read awhile ago that you need to know where your break point is (worded differently I think). I really think they hit it on the head. I did "ok" in '08 compared to everyone I know. Truth be told, it is absolutely because I just couldn't take the bleeding anymore. When my wife and had lost that brand new C5 Corvette I've always wanted between our two accounts I bailed, and it continued down. Since reading that thread I've adopted a break point. This is real money to me, and it's my retirement. I won't ride it into a smoking crater in the pursuit of better profits.

Another point I saw here was someone posted the percentages it takes to recover from a loss. Basically, a 10% loss has more of an impact that a 10% gain. So, it occurs to me that success may be based more on minimizing losses than realizing large gains.

Another thing that really reaffirms my belief in that is my numbers for my account. For the last six years I have 4 of them over 10%, some by quite a bit. My 12.5% loss in '08 drags my APR for my entire investment to barely over 5%.

72Zorad

But, I'm certainly no expert....

72Zorad
 
I think you are correct. I've retired on Jan 31 this year. I have not changed attitude about my TSP allocations, mostly stocks, since I've been released. My earnings are mine alone now (I prefer to think of myself not as 'retired', but as 'independently wealthy' or at least 'independent'). Since Jan 31, the TSP has brought me some pretty good earnings, even better, because of my late start, than what is shown on the tsp tracker. I intend to continue to allocate as I have been while keeping one foot just touching brake pedal. Your thoughts of similar allocations after your retirement are very good, I believe. Good luck. (I also believe the G or L fund recommendation for those of retirement age is only an option.)
 
Last edited:
Elgallo said:
Check this out:

http://www.govexec.com/careers/thrift/tspfunds.htm
Click to expand...




Excellent chart ElGallo... I've seen it before, but it was worth another look!

Of course we all probably need to be in the market in some capacity, even
(especially?) in retirement. My point being, the "normal" advice is to ratchet down your risk allocation as you near retirement. I just don't necessarily think
that should be the "standard" advice anymore...

And more importantly, how many people who haven't tried to educate themselves, are just being sheep, and following the heard?? Not to say
any on this board do, but that is some pretty scary stuff.

Thanks JJoe, orad, and nnutt too...
 
JD,

Good topic to start your thread with.....I agree with your philosophy. The people you'll see posting on this board are all of the rare breed that pay attention to their accounts and actively manage their money as they see appropriate. I think the majority of investors either just don't invest enough at all, or if they do they pretty much just close their eyes and cross their fingers, making only occasional adjustments, usually at the exact wrong times when things get extreme. I'm about 6 years away from my MRA, but I plan to continue to attempt to play the swings of the market right up to retirement and beyond. My style is pretty much all in or all out, nothing in between, since if I feel a conviction one way or the other then I just go with it. I think I'm the TSP Boards worst nightmare.

Whatever you're comfortable with is the way to go, there's no answer that fits everyone. Over the next 4-6 years or so I think actively managing your accounts is a must. I think we're heading into another period when the markets will gyrate wildly (mostly down starting in September) and anyone following the old Money magazine formulas based on age is gonna get hurt. I feel fortunate that my retirement comes in 2016 or later, which should be after the time when things have hit bottom (my guess is the Fall of 2014 for a bottom, so your timing could be great for a relatively stress-free retirement).
 
Here's part of the answer to the original question regarding gains/losses in a single day. Here are the details on all the funds gaining or loosing 10% in a single day (since June 2003)

14 Oct 2008 C fund gained 11.02%
14 Oct 2008 I fund gained 12.88%

28 Oct 2008 C fund gained 10.79%
28 Oct 2008 I fund gained 11.85%

1 Dec 2008 S fund lost 10.78%


Don't get to excited about those gains. It was all over the board at this time.
For the first gain the next day both lost over 9%.
For the second gain both had lost about 20% in the proceeding 5 days.

On the last one it was a 10% loss after about a 20% gain in the proceeding 5 days.
 
Wow, you should see the results for how many days lost/gained 7% or more in a single day. Late 2008 is crazy. Way too many to list.

And, if you happen to have $500,000 in the market that's a $35,000 loss in one day if it went down (which obviously was the trend).

Sure glad I didn't have 500k...I'd have gone home and shot myself (but no one else) :blink:
 
I too was one of the Sheep in the beginning...

Put it in, get the full Gov't match, leave it alone, forget about it.
That was cool in the beginning.

100% C - It was on autopilot, the balance grew every time I got
a new statement. Life was good. How hard was this TSP stuff??

Heck, I even put some into the "shiny new model" - The I fund.
Guess what? It took off like a rocket ship too... Retirement would
take no thought, no effort. Just finish my years, and decide which
beach I wanted to sip drinks on next.

Then I got crushed along with many others in the bloodshed of 08
early 09.

Time for auto pilot was finished. Time to roll up the sleeves and actually
learn about the TSP was here.

And now..... So am I.
 
Welcome Ship..


Well if you look around, read the posts, find the
people you identify with, keep studying....

You will certainly start to take control of your TSP
account, and start making wise decisions. Or at least
better ones. I can nearly promise you that.

Nobody can make the decisions that are right for you
better than you!! Nobody gives a damn whether you
make money or not... From Uncle Sam anyways.

The peeps here on this forum are the exceptions to that! :D
 
jdphx said:
look around, read the posts, find the
people you identify with, keep studying....
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree with you more....and that's exactly what I've been
doing.

Although I kind of miss hitting the 100% L2040 button and just letting it ride, I do have to admit it's a lot more fun to learn what's going on and taking a more active roll in the account.
 
Only wish I had started to post, and maybe contribute a bit earlier....

Questions on here always get good replies, and some make you think and see things from a perspective that you hadn't even considered before.

The L2040 huh.. You must have awhile till retirement.

That is the ONE thing to remember. What works for me, or someone else,
is not necessarily what will work for you. Remember, we are all at different
stages of the game.

Now let's keep this market BURNING!!!!
 
Anybody know why it took so long for the Tracker
to update with yesterday's numbers???


Wasn't updated when I checked earlier this morning...
and is only just now there at around 10am PST.


Things that make you go Hmmmm..... :rolleyes:
 
Boy the morning S&P charts sure look like a saw blade.

Choppy, choppy, choppy. The resistance looks just short
of 1220. Why do I get the feeling this is like a pressure cooker.
Bubbling very rapidly, just below the surface, soon enough
gaining steam, and BLOWING the top clean off!!!


Sounds good anyways ;)
 
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