Is timing everything?

[Bullitt]

The key is to save as much as you possibly can. The only thing you can control is your savings rate. We're at around 35% gross and does not include employee matches in 401k accounts.

In the long run the overwhelming majority of those who try to time markets will underperform. Everyone considers the "outperform" outcome, but what happens when you underperform a simple balanced portfolio? How will that affect your long term goals? Will some investors outperform? Sure, but it's up to the individual to decide if the risk of underperformance is worth it.

Some times are certainly better than others. For example, anyone who increased purchases in late March will likely be rewarded long term. ALL TIME RECORD outflows in March 2020.

As equities and pockets of the bond market sold off in March, long-term mutual funds and ETFs posted record outflows of $326 billion, or 1.7% of the industry's $19.7 trillion in assets at the end of February.

https://newsroom.morningstar.com/ne...nd-ETF-Fund-Flows-for-March-2020/default.aspx

Sentimentrader had this to say about the most recent AAII survey:

Individual investors in the AAII survey have shown a lot of restraint despite the surge in stocks over the past month. For the first time ever, a 10% rally in stocks was not enough to get a majority of investors optimistic.

Meanwhile, the blow-hards continue with their talk of how much worse it will get. A few comments about that.

1. These people likely did not re-balance end of March or found themselves on the wrong side of a crowded trade (sell).
2. IF the market were to move toward a "re-test" what percent of people who say they will buy it will actually buy? I'd say 5% since the news will be worse and they will be thinking it will only go lower.
3. What if March 2020 was the retest of the December 2018 low? Any thought given to that?
4. "Buy when there is blood in the streets." I really don't like that quote, but things were pretty bad in March. Most of the selling was forced margin calls compounded by the oil crash.

Investing becomes much easier when you have a plan in place.

 

[NatInPW]

let me second nasa's advice - put as much as you possibly can into the TSP as soon as you possibly can. I started the gov't age 29 and for 28 years I went 80% C and 20% F. I only recently started watching it more closely with this website (and a few others).

And don't touch the money. No loans, just keep contributing. You have plenty of time but you should start now. Time is your friend when it comes to compounding your returns - the earlier you start, and the more you can put in early, the better off you'll be.

Good luck in your investing!

 

[tcreel1888]

What's your thoughts?

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[nasa1974]

I've been invested in tsp for a little over 5 years now only putting in the minimal match of 5%. I've kept 50/50 split between he C fund and S fund in existing and new contributions. So far it seems to have worked out good on returns for me. I have 29 years left until my minimal retirement age of 57 1/2 which I will likely stay until 59 in order to have access to my tsp funds. My outlook is to leave it in higher risk for the first 20 or so years. My outlook is the market has always recovered as long as you have enough time to recoup any losses instead of pulling it out in fear. Does anyone else have this same outlook on letting it sit and timing when to play it safe closer to retirement?

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Welcome aboard. The only thing I would recommend would be to try and max out your contributions if you can afford it. Good luck.

 

[tcreel1888]

I've been invested in tsp for a little over 5 years now only putting in the minimal match of 5%. I've kept 50/50 split between he C fund and S fund in existing and new contributions. So far it seems to have worked out good on returns for me. I have 29 years left until my minimal retirement age of 57 1/2 which I will likely stay until 59 in order to have access to my tsp funds. My outlook is to leave it in higher risk for the first 20 or so years. My outlook is the market has always recovered as long as you have enough time to recoup any losses instead of pulling it out in fear. Does anyone else have this same outlook on letting it sit and timing when to play it safe closer to retirement?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk