Is it wrong?

[sugarandspice]

Of course there is no sure thing, but if you felt you could increase your chances of exploiting the FV situation that exists in the I fund, by recognizing certain conditions you felt were relevant, is it right to do? Should you be able to do it? I feel that it is perfectly fine. I am taking the risk. And if I "feel" it is setting up then why not?

Anyone else?

 

[nnuut]

Wrong? Wrong? Heck NO!!!! :nuts: What do you think those Hedge funds do? We are no nothings, they really know how to "play the I Fund". I wish we did know. Keep up the good work. If it works, please let me know.
THANKS
Norman.

 

[Wheels]

is it right to do? Should you be able to do it?

I don't think it is wrong to do, but I do think it is virtually impossible to do. You have gotten a few in a row to go your way, and you may very well have gotten another one tonight. But over time, I am certain that it will even out. I welcome you to try and change my mind though. What "conditions" are you looking at before noon that are telling you what might happen after noon?

Dave
<><

 

[sugarandspice]

Why do you think it is virtually impossible? Do you think it is virtually impossible to time the market? I am looking at opposite conditions pertainijg ti the I fund. I.E. strong overseas markets with strong dollar or the reverse of that. Then see which way the U.S. will go and decide if it is a risk to take based on about 8:45 A.M. reading. Please poke holes in this if you can.....it may save me alot of dough in the long run.

 

[Wheels]

Why do you think it is virtually impossible? Do you think it is virtually impossible to time the market? I am looking at opposite conditions pertainijg ti the I fund. I.E. strong overseas markets with strong dollar or the reverse of that. Then see which way the U.S. will go and decide if it is a risk to take based on about 8:45 A.M. reading. Please poke holes in this if you can.....it may save me alot of dough in the long run.

It's hard to poke holes in what you are saying because I don't think I understand what you are saying. Anything that happens before noon, whether it be a strong dollar or a run up in Europe's markets, will already be reflected in the MSCI EAFE. Barclays FV process is somewhat arbitrary although it can be effected by things like, a strong move in the dollar AFTER noon, or a strong move in our markets AFTER noon. Since your decision has to be made BEFORE noon, I am not sure what you could be looking at that would make you think that Barclays might consider an FV that day. Again, anything that happens before noon will already be reflected in the MSCI EAFE for that day.

Do you have a specific example of something that would happen before noon that make you think that an FV is coming that day?

Dave
<><

 

[sugarandspice]

The trend of the day for the dollar or the U.S. markets and whether or not I feel it will hold or reverse.

How is any of that different than just making an IFT? You still have the same info and time restraints.

I probably should just shut up because I don't know what the hell I'm doing anyway.

 

[SkyPilot]

Sugar/Spice... Actually, that is about the best approach you can take, as we are restricted on the IFT deadline (if one is going to try and time the I fund at all).

I try to buy if it looks like the I fund will take a loss for the day at IFT deadline (trying to account for momentum of the USD as well). Doesn't always work of course, as it is more art than science, and many factors can weigh in once the afternoon session kicks in.

Seems like both your intuitions have served you well as late... :nuts: :nuts: :nuts: :nuts:

 

[Show-me]

I just hope that you do not focus on nailing the FV and miss a geopolitical, economic or technical market signal. Awful lot of things to keep straight........more power to ya if you can sort it out. After all you have an advantage over most of us Sugar........or is it Spice.

 

[nnuut]

Don't you just love the Market? I do, because it's just like a ------ ( I can't say that!) You never really know what SHE is going to do, but when it happens SHE had a reason for doing it. Sometimes the reason is logical, other times it makes no sense at all, but SHE is always right!!! (joke):worried:

 

[FundSurfer]

I'd agree that there are times that it looks good and jumping is a good idea. I also agree with Wheels in that the market has a way of fooling you sometimes. I've seen the market pull the switcheroo after the noon deadline. I've also seen Barclay's not be consistant with their use of the FV. If you think you've got something worked out to your advantage, use it. Hopefully you'll be right more times than wrong. That is after all the name of the game.

 

[Fivetears]

Spice... tell sugar to give it all back. Consider all the poor helpless bankers, Spice. Sugar doesn't play with a full deck; you know this. Give it back. :nuts:

Of course there is no sure thing, but if you felt you could increase your chances of exploiting the FV situation that exists in the I fund, by recognizing certain conditions you felt were relevant, is it right to do? Should you be able to do it? I feel that it is perfectly fine. I am taking the risk. And if I "feel" it is setting up then why not?

Anyone else?

 

[Fivetears]

Because it's just like... an old Elton John song. Is it back? :nuts:
http://www.eltonography.com/songs/the_bitch_is_back.html

Don't you just love the Market? I do, because it's just like a ------ ( I can't say that!) You never really know what SHE is going to do, but when it happens SHE had a reason for doing it. Sometimes the reason is logical, other times it makes no sense at all, but SHE is always right!!! (joke):worried:

 

[Oldcoin]

Having been caught on the wrong side of a FV (on more than one occasion!) I applaud your success.

 

[sugarandspice]

I would not consider this experiment a success as of now. Simply luck so far.

 

[sugarandspice]

Is it back?

YES!

 

[sugarandspice]

Is it back?

I am.

 

[Fivetears]

Most awesome!!!! :laugh: