2/04/13
The market opened higher on Friday, after the jobs report was announced, but actually the futures were already spiking after some good economic data out of Europe. The Dow ended the day up 150-points, closing above 14,000 for the first time since 2007.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The jobs report was mixed as the numbers (+157,000 jobs and 7.9% unemployment rate) were weaker than expected, but they made some large upward revisions to the November and December reports and that seemed to get investors excited.
After a 2-day pullback, the S&P 500 resumed its upward trend and continues to ride the short-term rising resistance line. We've been saying that for weeks now, but this week it is likely going to face another challenge.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 is about to test the top of the ascending intermediate-term trading channel. These longer-term trends are tougher to break and that 1525 area is now less than 1% away.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart gives the bulls a little more to be excited about. The top of the longer-term trading channel is over 100-points from the current level, and rising quickly. The problem is, if the top of the intermediate-term trading channel (the smaller channel in this chart) smacks the S&P 500 down, there is a lot of room on the downside of both the intermediate and longer-term trading channels.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq finally broke out to a new closing high on Friday, but it too is hitting some short-term resistance here. We'll have to see if that breakout area (blue line) acts as support now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar, by way of the ETF UUP, broke down below previous lows, and while it did close off the daily low on Friday, it couldn't make it back above the December low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This is a big deal because this is a big part of why stocks are remaining buoyant. As the value of the dollar decreases, the threat of inflation becomes very real. As we know, anything that trades in dollars moves up in price (in dollars) when the dollar falls, because it takes more dollars to buy something.
As an example, let's say you bought an expensive piece of art as an investment and you paid $50,000 for it. You hang it on your wall and a couple of years go by. In the interim the dollar falls by 50%. That means the dollar is worth 50% less than it did when you bought your artwork.
Even if the "value" of the artwork did not go up - there is no greater or lesser demand for the piece, the price of the artwork would probably be $100,000 now. Since the dollar lost half its value, then it takes twice as many dollars to buy the artwork that has the same "value" is had when you bought it.
That's what the falling dollar does to prices, whether it's gold, gas, food, stocks, or whatever.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 43% bulls, 46% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.93 to 1. That is a buy signal in a bull market which means the survey system moved to a 100% S-fund allocation for this week.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The market opened higher on Friday, after the jobs report was announced, but actually the futures were already spiking after some good economic data out of Europe. The Dow ended the day up 150-points, closing above 14,000 for the first time since 2007.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The jobs report was mixed as the numbers (+157,000 jobs and 7.9% unemployment rate) were weaker than expected, but they made some large upward revisions to the November and December reports and that seemed to get investors excited.
After a 2-day pullback, the S&P 500 resumed its upward trend and continues to ride the short-term rising resistance line. We've been saying that for weeks now, but this week it is likely going to face another challenge.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 is about to test the top of the ascending intermediate-term trading channel. These longer-term trends are tougher to break and that 1525 area is now less than 1% away.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart gives the bulls a little more to be excited about. The top of the longer-term trading channel is over 100-points from the current level, and rising quickly. The problem is, if the top of the intermediate-term trading channel (the smaller channel in this chart) smacks the S&P 500 down, there is a lot of room on the downside of both the intermediate and longer-term trading channels.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq finally broke out to a new closing high on Friday, but it too is hitting some short-term resistance here. We'll have to see if that breakout area (blue line) acts as support now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar, by way of the ETF UUP, broke down below previous lows, and while it did close off the daily low on Friday, it couldn't make it back above the December low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This is a big deal because this is a big part of why stocks are remaining buoyant. As the value of the dollar decreases, the threat of inflation becomes very real. As we know, anything that trades in dollars moves up in price (in dollars) when the dollar falls, because it takes more dollars to buy something.
As an example, let's say you bought an expensive piece of art as an investment and you paid $50,000 for it. You hang it on your wall and a couple of years go by. In the interim the dollar falls by 50%. That means the dollar is worth 50% less than it did when you bought your artwork.
Even if the "value" of the artwork did not go up - there is no greater or lesser demand for the piece, the price of the artwork would probably be $100,000 now. Since the dollar lost half its value, then it takes twice as many dollars to buy the artwork that has the same "value" is had when you bought it.
That's what the falling dollar does to prices, whether it's gold, gas, food, stocks, or whatever.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 43% bulls, 46% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.93 to 1. That is a buy signal in a bull market which means the survey system moved to a 100% S-fund allocation for this week.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
